Nick Timothy’s central political argument, when he drove the early Theresa May Government, was that Britain leans left on economics, right on culture. This view had served as Vote Leave’s centre of gravity before the EU referendum, and was taken up by Timothy under May, and then revived by Dominic Cummings under Boris Johnson.
It is no libertarian vision. The Timothy-Cummings worldview sees the state as a strategic necessity, not an inherent drawback. It is pro-windfall taxes (if necessary), pro-industrial strategy, pro-NHS, anti-high migration, tough on crime, culturally conservative, ambivalent on housing. If were a place, it would be Walsall or thereabouts.
You can argue that this ideal, which saw Brexit as an opportunity to level up rather than go Singapore, relies on good economic times and lots of spending, and that Covid and Ukraine have rendered it unachievable. Maybe. But it helped to gift the Conservatives a majority of 80 and that legendary Red Wall.
Perhaps both these are unsustainable, too. But Rishi Sunak’s coherent reshuffle suggests that he will live or die electorally by seeking to keep the Tories’ Brexit coalition arrive. It represents Cummingsism without Cummings, in strategic terms; Johnsonism without Johnson, in political ones.
Don’t be deceived by that moderate persona, the flat in Santa Monica, the Indian billions, the smack of Davos: the new Prime Minister is set on repairing the damage that Liz Truss, in her anarchic spell in Downing Street, did to the Brexity Conservative brand, with her proposed cut in the top rate of tax, corporation tax and cap removal for bankers’ bonuses.
If the May-Timothy-Johnson-Cummings continuum was located in Walsall, the Truss experiment was to be found Somewhere In Tufton Street. Sunak’s shuffle shows a Prime Minister determined to shift the Conservatives Red Wall-wards while trying simultaneously to slow Blue Fade – to get the band back together, reverse the Tories’ disastrous poll ratings, and win a fifth term.
I will try to prove this claim with three pieces of evidence. The first is the core of Sunak’s new government. Jeremy Hunt remains Chancellor. Oliver Dowden comes into Downing Street to be the new Prime Minister’s Chief Executive. Dominic Raab is Deputy Prime Minister and returns to the Justice Department. Simon Hart is Chief Whip.
This is the core of Sunak’s administration: not exactly the government of greybeards that I hoped might materialise, but a government of salt-and-pepper: that’s to say, grey hair mixed with black, tonally if not literally. These are sober, responsible, experienced Ministers and operators.
Nadhim Zahawi, after his recent adventures, goes to CCHQ, where his organisational skills will come in useful. Penny Mordaunt’s grandstanding yesterday leaves her marooned as Leader of the House. James Cleverly has impressed Team Sunak as Foreign Secretary and stays in post. He and Zahawi backed Johnson, Mordaunt herself, the rest Sunak.
The second piece of evidence is the return of Suella Braverman to the Home Office, less than a week after she quit in the wake of the improper use of Government information. At one level, this is a reward for her support for the new Prime Minister in the latest Tory leadership election. At another, divide and rule – setting her up against Kemi Badenoch for potential succession.
More immediately, however, it is an unmistakable signal that the new government will set immigration control above trade deals. Sunak, once a migration liberal, has clocked the electoral significance of small boats: remember, his platform when he stood for the leadership against Liz Truss contained a plan that would necessitate ending our international commitments on refugee entry.
Elsewhere, Badenoch stays at Trade and Michelle Donelan at Culture: some of the Government’s critics will maintain that these two, together with Braverman, are a culture war trio appointment. You may ask what Trade has to do with these matters, to which the answer is that Badenoch becomes Minister for Women and Equalities.
But the left-of-party-centre Gillian Keegan goes to Education, a post for which ConservativeHome once tipped her. Michael Gove is back at levelling up. Steve Barclay returns to Health. Mel Stride, who was Sunak’s leadership election campaign manager, goes to Work and Pensions. Grant Shapps goes to Business. Ben Wallace stays at Defence. Therese Coffey is sent to Defra.
She is proof of the third piece of evidence of the Prime Minister’s intentions. This Cabinet reshuffle isn’t as maniacally one-sided as Truss’s, which featured only one Sunak supporter, though not perhaps a committed one: Michael Ellis. No fewer than 25 of the remainder had voted for her sooner or later, with the other five undeclared.
But with the main exceptions of Cleverly, Zahawi, Chris Heaton Harris at Northern Ireland and perhaps Coffey, the appointments to date were Sunak voters during this week’s leadership election. Out go Jacob-Rees Mogg, Brandon Lewis, Wendy Morton, Vicky Ford, Chloe Smith, Robert Buckland, Jake Berry, Ranil Jayawardena, Simon Clarke and (surprisingly) Kit Malthouse.
Most of these were Truss or Johnson appointments, and Sunak has pushed the boat out by not coming to an accommodation with, say, Clarke. All the more evidence of his determination to go for the line with a team that backs him. He’s been more subtle than Truss – hardly difficult – but not by all that much.
Downing Street is briefing that this was a shuffle for unity, experience and responsibility. Up to a point. More to it is that this reshuffle has a touch of a Red Wall fist in a Blue Fade Glove. It ought to go down well with the Matthew Goodwins and not quite so well with the David Gaukes.
Meanwhile, Mark Harper is Transport Department. Alastair Jack remains at the Scottish Office, David T C Davis goes to Wales, and Lord True, the great survivor of the John Major era, stays on as Leader of the Lords. Two capable junior Ministers move up. Victoria Prentis is Attorney General, and Jeremy Quin goes to the Cabinet Office. John Glen is Chief Secretary.
Tom Tugendhat is back at his security job attending Cabinet. And at this late hour for filing comes the news, doubtless deliberately held back, that Gavin Williamson is back, this time as Lord Privy Seal. Yet more evidence of the ruthlessness with which the core of Team Sunak will pursue its goals.