Here are the totals to date this year for our panel’s expectation of which party – or parties – will form a government after the next general election takes place.
Last month, 11 per cent believed that there will be a Conservative majority, eight per cent a minority Tory government and three per cent a Conservative-led coalition.
So 22 per cent of the panel think that the Government after the next election will be Conservative-led. Forty-nine per cent now expect a Labour majority government.
The totals for previous months were as follows:
So the story these results tell is almost entirely one of monthly decline of the proportion of the panel expecting a Tory-led government after the next election…
…and a sudden surge in that now expecting a Labour-majority one.
The ousting of Boris Johnson, the summer’s leadership election, the Truss premiership, the ousting of Truss, the second briefer leadership election, the various financial events, including the mini-Budget and the Autumn Statement – none of it has made any discernable difference to this tale of ratings decline.