A man in Scotland proposes to become a woman, or a woman to become a man – self-identifying in order to do so, under the terms of the Gender Recognition Reform Bill introduced by the SNP-Green government.
Is it right that the first becomes a woman in Scotland but remains a man in the rest of the UK, at least as far as the law is concerned, and the second becomes a man in Scotland but remains a woman in the rest of the UK? Should either be allowed to change gender by self-identification in the first place?
The tale of the Bill stars a large cast, much of it made up of Conservatives: Kemi Badenoch, because she is the Minister for Women and Equalities, and the Bill’s fate is inextricably linked to our UK-wide equality laws; Michael Gove, because he is Minister for Intergovernmental Relations; Allister Jack, because he is Secretary of State for Scotland…and Rishi Sunak, Prime Minister.
Plus Scotland’s 31 MSPs (two of whom voted for the Bill) and Scotland’s six Conservative MPs – not to mention the 349 other Tories who sit for English and Welsh seats, since the implications of the measure are UK-wide.
But forget about this cast for a moment, and the issues with which it must grapple, and return to those two questions. Which will the Government focus on this week?
As I write, it has until Wednesday to veto the Bill under Section 35 of the Scotland Act 1998, the piece of UK legislation which established Scotland’s devolution settlement, and is set to do so.
So it was reported over the weekend – to the irritation, I’m told, of some in government who saw the story as a leak intended to bounce Sunak into approving a veto.
However, it appears that Downing Street has been advised that the Bill is not compatible with UK-wide equality laws, and that the Government will indeed bar the Bill on that basis.
Since Jack is Scottish Secretary, it is he who must exercise the veto. Who we see out and about in the media afterwards will tell us much about how the Government will deal with the politics of the decision.
“The more you see Kemi out and about, the more the Government will be focusing on the self-ID issue. And the more you see Allister, the more it will focusing on the constitutional one”, I was told.
This is a bit of simplification. One can expect both Ministers and others to have their piece to say. Furthermore, the two matters are not easily separated: after all, a recent letter from Badenoch to Nicola Sturgeon about the Bill was constitution-focused.
Nonetheless, I expect the Prime Minister and his colleagues to stress the constitutional angle in the wake of Section 35 being moved (assuming that this happens).
That may be surprising at first glance. After all, won’t an “English veto” – as Sturgeon will doubtless characterise it – play into her hands? Isn’t this a trap that she has laid for Sunak?
Won’t the hated Tories vetoing from Westminster a law passed in Holyrood transform public opinion in Scotland? Could its opposition to the Bill suddenly switch to support?
Some in government were originally nervous that this might happen, but Number Ten’s fears have subsided, and it would be characteristic of Sunak to follow the legal advice in any event.
Furthermore, Ministers won’t want to tear strips off self-ID. That isn’t because the Government supports it: far from it. Senior Tories are concerned about the implications for single-sex spaces for women, and participation in sport, the arts, and business.
“That’s before we really start talking about where we have vulnerabilities at play, such as in prisons or in rape and domestic abuse shelters,” Rachel Maclean, a Vice-Chairman of the Party, has said.
Nonetheless, some Conservative MPs back self-ID in principle – including Theresa May who, as Conservative leader, originally supported it, and still does.
Backing will be found among the 20 plus members of the Parliamentary Party who have tabled an amendment to the Online Safety Bill seeking a ban on “so-called conversion practices of LBGBTQ+ individuals”.
But Sunak’s political challenges are straightforward compared to those that Keir Starmer must manage – as his BBC interview with Laura Kuenssberg showed yesterday.
To understand why, return for a moment to Sturgeon. Part of the Bill’s purpose may have been to trap the Conservatives, but it has instead to ensnare her own party.
The long and short of it is that pressure for the measure came not only from her Green partners in government but from within the ranks of the SNP.
But when it came to a final vote, its MSPs split, with seven opposing the measure and a Minister, Ash Regan, resigning. Sir Keir has been under similar internal pressure from within Labour.
Which is why he backed self-ID late last year. He may now face party management difficulties at Westminster similar to those that Sturgeon has experienced at Holyrood.
But his own problems in Scotland have more bite, at least for the moment. There, Scottish Labour MSPs supported amendments that would have exclude 16-18 year olds from the Bill…but then voted for the Bill when those amendments were defeated.
Sir Keir backed Scottish Labour’s original position yesterday, thereby signalling discontent with the Bill in its final form. Government movement of Section 35 will create another headache for him.
For much of the Labour Party in Scotland will oppose it, while some Labour unionists at Westminster will support it – or at least smile on it in private.
I don’t expect these tergiversations to have any short-term term effect on the poll ratings either of Sir Keir or the party. Most voters are preoccupied by rising prices, the NHS, strikes and living standards – not culture wars; nor constitutional debate.
Nonetheless, many voters who have lost faith in the Conservatives, especially perhaps in those crucial midlands and northern marginals, have persistent doubts about Labour’s values, and those of its leader.
And as the next election approaches, his economic offer will come under intensifying scrutiny. Yesterday, Rob Colvile wrote that Starmer is promising “Rolls-Royce services on a Skoda budget”.
Colvile’s canter through Shadow Ministers’ spending and policy pledges – in particular, Wes Streeting’s plan to nationalise GPs – was only a trial run. Today, the press in general, and the Daily Mail in particular, swoop on Sir Keir’s support for hospital self-referral in some circumstances. The same interests that oppose ideas for change from the right are also lining up to oppose change from the left, as set out by Sir Keir yesterday.
His backing for self-ID will find support among some voters: young people, Labour voters and women in particular, according to YouGov. But the story of the Gender Recognition Reform Bill suggests that what voters think about an abstract proposition may be one thing and particular measures another, as the issues they raise come into focus.
YouGov reports that Leave voters are among those least likely to recognise that transgender people now hold a new gender status. Sir Keir is angling for their support, but it’s a long way from guaranteed.