Paul Beresford has announced his decision to retire at the next election. First elected for Croydon Central in 1992, he has sat for Mole Valley in Surrey since 1997. Born in New Zealand, Beresford practiced as a dentist, before becoming a councillor. He led Wandsworth Borough Council – infamously Margaret Thatcher’s favourite – from 1983 to 1992.
Beresford’s decision will raise a few eyebrows, since Mole Valley has traditionally been a safe seat. Beresford achieved majorities of 46.1 per cent and 42.6 per cent in 2015 and 2017 respectively. This halved to 21.1 per cent in 2019 in the face of a strong Liberal Democrat challenge. Might Beresford fear that it will turn yellow next time?
Beresford mentioned in his resignation announcement to his constituents that Mole Valley is to be rechristened Dorking and Horley at the next election. The addition of several wards that previously formed parts of Guildford, Reigate, and Surrey East will mean the successor seat contains only three-fifths or so of his current constituency.
Even so, whilst the definition of ‘safe’ is rather loose in the light of polls suggesting the Tories might plummet into third at the next election, Electoral Calculus predict Beresford would cling on, with Labour in second
It’s true that parts of Mole Valley will transfer to both a re-formatted Guildford, and a new constituency of Godalming and Ash. Bad news for Angela Richardson, Beresford’s fellow Kiwi: the Tory candidate at Guildford is predicted by Electoral Calculus to fall into third the next time around, behind the Liberal Democrats and Labour. But Godalming and Ash is thought likely to stay blue.
Those wards Dorking and Horley gain from Reigate are predicted to go to Labour (as is the new version of the constituency from which they are taken). Perhaps Beresford feels the tide is against the Tories locally. A recent by-election saw the Green Party gain a seat on the council, as the Conservative vote share fell by 22 per cent.
Or perhaps the best explanation is the simplest one. Beresford has been in politics in one form or another for 45 years. Age is just a number, and the Commons benefits from long-standing members. But Beresford will be over a decade over the average point of retirement at the next election. His decision may have little to do with the circumstances of his constituency, and much to do with taking a step back than facing a possible spell in Opposition again.