Not a single Conservative Party member has read a single word of the Northern Ireland Protocol deal – assuming, as we surely must, that there is one, together with a draft legal text.
But since most follow the political news, they will have seen the reaction so far to what is taking shape. Together with the reaction of politicians in Northern Ireland and Tory MPs in Westminster – including that of Rishi Sunak’s two recent predecessors, Liz Truss and Boris Johnson.
Our survey question is therefore a finger-to-the-wind test not only of what the ConservativeHome Party members’ panel think of the Prime Minister’s handling of the Protocol so far, but of his standing generally.
Unsurprisingly given the survey’s return since he took office, the result offers little comfort for Sunak. Twenty-three per cent don’t know – a high percentage for that category in our polls, reflecting the view that one should wait and see (sensibly enough). Thirty six per cent back his policy. And 41 per cent don’t.
I believe that a wider dissatisfaction is fuelling that number – over current levels of tax, the size of the state, the condition of the economy, the squeeze on living standards and, not least, the turbulent events of last year.
Truss and especially Johnson have their committed supporters and, although most Conservative MPs are being reselected, the deselection-stroke-non-selection of three – which is most unusual – is a sign of the times. “Were I to sum up the membership’s mood in a sentence, it would be: ‘Why isn’t this a more conservative country after over 12 years in office?’ ”
That was my snapshot take in the wake of the Stafford Association’s decision to deselect Theo Clarke yesterday, and my take for better or worse is that this response bolsters that view.
Let’s see next month if the Prime Minister has moved the dial with our panel after the Protocol deal is actually published – and get get enough of those don’t knows into his column to gain his handling of the matter a comfortable majority.