Sanjoy Sen is a chemical engineer. He contested Alyn and Deeside in the 2019 general election.
Here in my native Derbyshire, demand for oil rigs and subsea production systems is essentially zero. So, as a chemical engineer, it was somewhat inevitable that I would spend a large chunk of my career in Aberdeen’s once-buoyant North Sea oil industry.
And having made it north, I experienced first-hand the SNP’s record in government, including that of new leader Humza Yousaf.
It’s not too much of a spoiler to reveal how effective they have been – especially in the north-east, far from the nationalists’ central belt power base.
We’ve even seen devolution reversed with regional police forces, including Grampian, subsumed into Police Scotland, and neither our transport nor our health issues were seemingly high priorities in Yousaf’s previous roles.
Then there was the personal element. Joining the Scottish Conservatives after the independence referendum, I found myself edged out in Aberdeen North by a character-building 20,000 margin in 2015. Whilst I experienced some unpleasantness during the campaign, others have since fared much worse; seemingly no opponent (real or perceived) is off limits.
Given the tone of the independence campaign in recent years, unionists might feel entitled to a degree of schadenfreude at the SNP’s current woes.
But Conservatives can’t afford to be smug for long. A post-Nicola Sturgeon implosion would present a huge opportunity for Labour at the next general election. Let’s consider her legacy, what could happen next, and how the Tories might respond.
How will Sturgeon be remembered?
Whilst the SNP lauds Sturgeon’s legacy (for now, at least), there were nevertheless key failings on all levels: country, party and independence.
Once described as her “defining mission”, the educational attainment gap continues to widen. NHS Scotland has major problems, and drug deaths are tragically the highest in Europe.
Headline policies fared little better. Despite a failed attempt at a named person scheme for children, Sturgeon pushed on with controversial controversial hate crime legislation before finally coming a cropper on gender recognition.
After almost a decade in office, Sturgeon leaves the SNP in a parlous state: plummeting membership numbers, and an attempt to cover them up, have forced her husband’s resignation; infighting shows no sign of letting up, with Sturgeon left pleading for unity; party finances are in disarray, with Police Scotland investigating the whereabouts of the £600,000 independence fighting fund.
But the outgoing First Minister will be judged most of all on her independence tactics.
Despite three Conservative general election victories plus Brexit working in her favour, opinion polls have refused to budge above 50 per cent. And little wonder: far from winning over soft unionists with a charm offensive, Sturgeon’s divisive rhetoric entrenched views and left Scotland as divided as at the 2014 indyref.
What could happen next?
It’s possible that as Sturgeon’s preferred candidate, Yousaf could yet steady the ship. Or his tenure could prove a mere Trussian blip, with Kate Forbes waiting in the wings following her narrow defeat. (A Salmond-ite replacement, or even the man himself, feels less likely following Ash Regan’s poor showing of barely 11 per cent of the first-round vote.)
But whilst it’s premature to write off the SNP, divisions have been exposed and their high vote share is going to be hard to maintain indefinitely.
For almost a decade, the Conservatives have profited from the nationalists depriving Labour of forty-odd once-safe seats. At election times, we were also able to capitalise on the prospect of Ed Miliband and Jeremy Corbyn being in the SNP’s pocket.
But the Nationalists’ current woes threaten to upset that balance. Of their 45 Westminster seats, 11 have a majority under 5,000 – eminently overturn-able – and 16 more sit in the 5,000 to 10,000 bracket.
If Scottish Labour can make in-roads after years in the wilderness, Sir Keir Starmer’s chances of making it to Number Ten get a major boost.
How ought the Conservatives respond?
For years, unionist politicians have avoided confrontation for fear of strengthening the independence cause. As recently as late 2022, Gordon Brown was proposing still further devolution to stem the nationalist tide.
Yet for all her bluster, Sturgeon crumbled at the first sign of real Westminster opposition. Whilst initial exchanges have been conciliatory, the key lesson is that Sunak must be prepared to take on Yousaf right from the off (Yousaf won’t waste any time taking him on, after all).
But holding the line isn’t enough; Westminster also needs to start playing a more active role in building a stronger Britain.
A start has been made: following years of Labour inaction in Cardiff, Grant Shapps is now keen for the Government to start sorting out Welsh road infrastructure.
There is scope for more. In Scotland, Highland arteries such as the A9 and A96 remain dangerous, as the SNP have held back on essential upgrades. Rail expansion in left-behind northern communities is another over-looked area. A similar willingness to highlight failings (and even intervene) might not go amiss.
Anyone who has lived in both England and Scotland understands the two countries are not identical. But whilst the nationalists are naturally keen to magnify differences, social attitudes data (including in such key areas as immigration) suggest the two are not poles apart. Emphasising shared values and identity needn’t be the turn-off that unionists have long feared.
But there’s probably no bigger opportunity for the Conservatives in Scotland than to start to driving investment in energy.
A new generation of nuclear power stations is finally getting under way in England, with Hinkley Point C in construction (yes, still) and Sizewell C green-lighted. Wales could follow next with a major new-build at Wylfa and small modular reactors (SMRs) at Trawsfynydd.
By contrast, the Scottish Government can block new nuclear on its turf, and recently came out against SMR plans for the Grangemouth refinery complex on the Firth of Forth.
It’s time for the Government to make a case for new nuclear in Scotland, both to safeguard existing industrial jobs and create new ones.
Opportunities also abound offshore. The SNP knew this once (“It’s Scotland’s Oil”), and at the 2014 referendum Salmond held that buoyant North Sea revenues would feed an oil fund.
But having lost her majority in 2021, Sturgeon was forced by her Green partners to disown the industry.
As I noted last year, fluctuating tax rates create uncertainty offshore. The windfall tax has also stifled investment.
But a re-think could revitalise the sector and reduce both import dependence and emissions. We need to back the North Sea both in exploiting our remaining oil and gas reserves and in driving the energy transition (it’s not the either-or choice that some believe).
You won’t be surprised to hear me touting Aberdeen as the hub for such activity. After missing out on as a Green Freeport, finally landing some major carbon capture investment for the nearby Acorn Project would be a clear sign of Westminster’s intent.
And when it comes to renewables, new developments need to be sited appropriately. Scotland’s offshore potential (wind and wave) is vast, yet rural communities are increasingly finding themselves impacted by onshore wind turbines sited across some of Britain’s most spectacular scenery.
And whilst the Scottish Government has looked towards Europe (especially Germany) as a market for wind-sourced hydrogen, integration with the wider British energy system needs to be turned into a bigger win-win – energy storage and grid balancing gets increasingly important as we pile renewables on to the grid.
Opinions will vary on how best to strengthen the Union. But none should doubt that despite devolution, Westminster action remains essential to building the case for our United Kingdom.
Sanjoy Sen is a chemical engineer. He contested Alyn and Deeside in the 2019 general election.
Here in my native Derbyshire, demand for oil rigs and subsea production systems is essentially zero. So, as a chemical engineer, it was somewhat inevitable that I would spend a large chunk of my career in Aberdeen’s once-buoyant North Sea oil industry.
And having made it north, I experienced first-hand the SNP’s record in government, including that of new leader Humza Yousaf.
It’s not too much of a spoiler to reveal how effective they have been – especially in the north-east, far from the nationalists’ central belt power base.
We’ve even seen devolution reversed with regional police forces, including Grampian, subsumed into Police Scotland, and neither our transport nor our health issues were seemingly high priorities in Yousaf’s previous roles.
Then there was the personal element. Joining the Scottish Conservatives after the independence referendum, I found myself edged out in Aberdeen North by a character-building 20,000 margin in 2015. Whilst I experienced some unpleasantness during the campaign, others have since fared much worse; seemingly no opponent (real or perceived) is off limits.
Given the tone of the independence campaign in recent years, unionists might feel entitled to a degree of schadenfreude at the SNP’s current woes.
But Conservatives can’t afford to be smug for long. A post-Nicola Sturgeon implosion would present a huge opportunity for Labour at the next general election. Let’s consider her legacy, what could happen next, and how the Tories might respond.
How will Sturgeon be remembered?
Whilst the SNP lauds Sturgeon’s legacy (for now, at least), there were nevertheless key failings on all levels: country, party and independence.
Once described as her “defining mission”, the educational attainment gap continues to widen. NHS Scotland has major problems, and drug deaths are tragically the highest in Europe.
Headline policies fared little better. Despite a failed attempt at a named person scheme for children, Sturgeon pushed on with controversial controversial hate crime legislation before finally coming a cropper on gender recognition.
After almost a decade in office, Sturgeon leaves the SNP in a parlous state: plummeting membership numbers, and an attempt to cover them up, have forced her husband’s resignation; infighting shows no sign of letting up, with Sturgeon left pleading for unity; party finances are in disarray, with Police Scotland investigating the whereabouts of the £600,000 independence fighting fund.
But the outgoing First Minister will be judged most of all on her independence tactics.
Despite three Conservative general election victories plus Brexit working in her favour, opinion polls have refused to budge above 50 per cent. And little wonder: far from winning over soft unionists with a charm offensive, Sturgeon’s divisive rhetoric entrenched views and left Scotland as divided as at the 2014 indyref.
What could happen next?
It’s possible that as Sturgeon’s preferred candidate, Yousaf could yet steady the ship. Or his tenure could prove a mere Trussian blip, with Kate Forbes waiting in the wings following her narrow defeat. (A Salmond-ite replacement, or even the man himself, feels less likely following Ash Regan’s poor showing of barely 11 per cent of the first-round vote.)
But whilst it’s premature to write off the SNP, divisions have been exposed and their high vote share is going to be hard to maintain indefinitely.
For almost a decade, the Conservatives have profited from the nationalists depriving Labour of forty-odd once-safe seats. At election times, we were also able to capitalise on the prospect of Ed Miliband and Jeremy Corbyn being in the SNP’s pocket.
But the Nationalists’ current woes threaten to upset that balance. Of their 45 Westminster seats, 11 have a majority under 5,000 – eminently overturn-able – and 16 more sit in the 5,000 to 10,000 bracket.
If Scottish Labour can make in-roads after years in the wilderness, Sir Keir Starmer’s chances of making it to Number Ten get a major boost.
How ought the Conservatives respond?
For years, unionist politicians have avoided confrontation for fear of strengthening the independence cause. As recently as late 2022, Gordon Brown was proposing still further devolution to stem the nationalist tide.
Yet for all her bluster, Sturgeon crumbled at the first sign of real Westminster opposition. Whilst initial exchanges have been conciliatory, the key lesson is that Sunak must be prepared to take on Yousaf right from the off (Yousaf won’t waste any time taking him on, after all).
But holding the line isn’t enough; Westminster also needs to start playing a more active role in building a stronger Britain.
A start has been made: following years of Labour inaction in Cardiff, Grant Shapps is now keen for the Government to start sorting out Welsh road infrastructure.
There is scope for more. In Scotland, Highland arteries such as the A9 and A96 remain dangerous, as the SNP have held back on essential upgrades. Rail expansion in left-behind northern communities is another over-looked area. A similar willingness to highlight failings (and even intervene) might not go amiss.
Anyone who has lived in both England and Scotland understands the two countries are not identical. But whilst the nationalists are naturally keen to magnify differences, social attitudes data (including in such key areas as immigration) suggest the two are not poles apart. Emphasising shared values and identity needn’t be the turn-off that unionists have long feared.
But there’s probably no bigger opportunity for the Conservatives in Scotland than to start to driving investment in energy.
A new generation of nuclear power stations is finally getting under way in England, with Hinkley Point C in construction (yes, still) and Sizewell C green-lighted. Wales could follow next with a major new-build at Wylfa and small modular reactors (SMRs) at Trawsfynydd.
By contrast, the Scottish Government can block new nuclear on its turf, and recently came out against SMR plans for the Grangemouth refinery complex on the Firth of Forth.
It’s time for the Government to make a case for new nuclear in Scotland, both to safeguard existing industrial jobs and create new ones.
Opportunities also abound offshore. The SNP knew this once (“It’s Scotland’s Oil”), and at the 2014 referendum Salmond held that buoyant North Sea revenues would feed an oil fund.
But having lost her majority in 2021, Sturgeon was forced by her Green partners to disown the industry.
As I noted last year, fluctuating tax rates create uncertainty offshore. The windfall tax has also stifled investment.
But a re-think could revitalise the sector and reduce both import dependence and emissions. We need to back the North Sea both in exploiting our remaining oil and gas reserves and in driving the energy transition (it’s not the either-or choice that some believe).
You won’t be surprised to hear me touting Aberdeen as the hub for such activity. After missing out on as a Green Freeport, finally landing some major carbon capture investment for the nearby Acorn Project would be a clear sign of Westminster’s intent.
And when it comes to renewables, new developments need to be sited appropriately. Scotland’s offshore potential (wind and wave) is vast, yet rural communities are increasingly finding themselves impacted by onshore wind turbines sited across some of Britain’s most spectacular scenery.
And whilst the Scottish Government has looked towards Europe (especially Germany) as a market for wind-sourced hydrogen, integration with the wider British energy system needs to be turned into a bigger win-win – energy storage and grid balancing gets increasingly important as we pile renewables on to the grid.
Opinions will vary on how best to strengthen the Union. But none should doubt that despite devolution, Westminster action remains essential to building the case for our United Kingdom.