Since the announcements on Monday of Nicola Richards and Stuart Anderson, the MPs for West Bromwich East and Wolverhampton South West, that they plan to stand down from their constituencies at the next election, there has been speculation that the pair intend to embark on the “chicken run” – not the classic Aardman movie, but the manoeuvre by which an MP in a marginal constituency abandons their seat for a safer one.
Today, ConHome can exclusively reveal that Richards, Anderson, and Scott Benton – the MP for Blackpool South – decisions – and explain why, according to one senior CCHQ source, “there is no chicken run”.
Both Richards’ claim that she is standing down due to a “change in [her] domestic circumstances” and Anderson’s that he is tired of the “sustained violence and intimidation” he has faced are creditable. Richards has recently got married; the police have investigated 19 incidents against Anderson, his family, and staff.
Their decision to move has also been based on their currently holding seats with small majorities that have been changed by the boundary review – and they have been granted permission to seek selection elsewhere.
The boundary review has seen a number of MPs affected by changes to their constituency boundaries, or the disappearance of their seats entirely – with Suella Braverman a high-profile example. But CCHQ’s decision as to whether an MP has been displaced – and can therefore apply for a seat elsewhere – is up to a panel headed by Peter Booth, the Chairman of the National Convention, and upon which Greg Hands, the Party Chairman, does not sit. The panel also includes representatives of the 1922 Committee.
MPs who believe they have been displaced must make a presentation to the panel as to why they believe they should be allowed to apply elsewhere – including, if they so choose, maps of constituency boundaries, ward changes, and the like. If the panel agrees with their assessment, they will then be granted permission to apply elsewhere.
Hence why, according to a senior CCHQ source, “there is no chicken run”. As they told ConHome, “if they have not been displaced, they cannot go elsewhere”. Any MP sitting on a tight majority who looks upon, say, Bromsgrove or Broxbourne covetously, but cannot convince the panel that they have been sufficiently shafted by boundary changes, will therefore be out of luck.
The problem this raises for CCHQ is that ‘displaced’ is in the eye of the beholder – or, more specifically, Booth and his panel. ConHome can disclose that Richards, Anderson, and Benton have all been judged by the panel to have been ‘displaced’.
Richards’ seat of West Bromwich East has been replaced by West Bromwich, which combines five wards of her previous seat with two from West Bromwich West and one from Halesowen and Rowley Regis. According to Electoral Calculus, that is 62 per cent of her previous one – which gives it a 98 per cent chance of going to Labour.
Anderson’s seat of Wolverhampton South West is being replaced by Wolverhampton West, which combines seven wards of Wolverhampton South West from one from Wolverhampton North East and one from Wolverhampton South East. According to Electoral Calculus, that is 79 per cent of his previous one – and give it a 98 per cent of going to Labour.
Benton’s seat of Blackpool South is being replaced by another Blackpool South, but which now includes twelve wards of his current seat and four wards of Blackpool North and Cleveleys. According to Electoral Calculus, that is 75 per cent of his previous ones – and give it a 98 per cent chance of going to Labour.
ConHome will leave it up to readers (and Conservative MPs and activists) to decide whether they agree with the panel’s metric of ‘displacement’. One thing is for sure – other MPs facing disadvantageous boundary changes will certainly be interested.
A question that follows is whether under Party rules the displaced three will now automatically be entitled to make the shortlist of any new seat that they apply for in their region. As ever, please contact William Atkinson at william@conservativehome.com with any information about candidates and selections.