Last week we considered the Metropolitan Boroughs. Next week, it will be the District Councils. But today, it is the turn of the Unitary Authorities. 32 of them are “all-out” – every seat is up for election on May 4th. Another 14 have a third of the seats being contested.
Keir Starmer launched Labour’s local election campaign in Swindon (with a low tax message). So that will be an obvious target for his Party and mildly embarrassing if they don’t take it. The Conservatives currently control the council with 32 seats to Labour’s 23. Only a third of seats are being contested, but if Labour repeats its performance from last year, it would make it. Given that a year ago Labour was around five points ahead in the opinion polls and is now around 15 points ahead, they should expect to do so.
Stoke has all the seats up for election. It has a minority Conservative administration with 22 seats, with 12 for Labour. Of course, this is a city that was traditionally safe Labour territory. But all three of its MPs are Conservatives. There is also a strong group of independents. Given that the mood generally is of disenchantment with the Conservatives, but a lack of enthusiasm for Labour, then perhaps the independents will do well. If Labour can’t win an overall majority here that will be a signal that they have not yet reconnected with those communities they used to take for granted.
To some extent, the same applies to Hull. Labour does still have all three MPs but the Council is led by the Liberal Democrats. Only a third of seats are up, but the Lib Dems’ lead is narrow. Labour really should expect to gain Hull.
Plymouth will be another key test for Labour. The Conservatives have been hit locally by a row over cutting down a hundred trees for a regeneration project – it prompted the council leader to resign. In any case, the Conservatives have been running a minority administration despite having fewer seats than Labour. However, only a third of seats are up for election.
Then there are the two councils in Cheshire – Cheshire East, and Cheshire West and Chester. Both have minority Labour administrations. Given that all the seats are up, it should be a modest goal for Labour to win overall control in both authorities. But Cheshire East has a large group of independents, so that causes some uncertainty.
Leicester could buck the trend of Labour advances. It has all the seats up for election. Labour starts with an overwhelming majority of seats, as well as the mayoralty which is also up for election. What impact will Rishi Sunak becoming Britain’s first Hindu Prime Minister have? It will certainly mean many will at least consider voting Conservatives. That was a trend already well underway. Labour’s majority in Leicester East fell dramatically at the last General Election. Though there is also a large Muslim population in the City. And also a significant Sikh population. Will economics trump religion? There is a high level of deprivation.
Many Labour councillors have been deselected. They include Muslims as well as Hindus. Tribune has been sticking up for them so they may include some Corbynistas. On the other hand, three of them have defected to the Conservatives, including a former Lord Mayor. Others are expected to stand as independents. Last October, the Conservatives gained a by-election with Labour knocked into third place.
Brighton and Hove has all its seats up for election. It has a minority Green Party administration which has proved problematic. Demographic change probably helps the Green though. Will they gain overall control? Or will Labour find this is another area where they can prove their resurgence?
The Lib Dems have the challenge of having done fairly well when most of the council seats were last contested in 2019. They are a few points lower in the opinion polls now than they were then. Wokingham is an area where they have fewer councillors than the Conservatives, but there is a Lib Dem administration backed by a few Labour and independent councillors. North Somerset, which is hung, will be another important battle for them. Also, Bath and North East Somerset, which they control.
Conclusion
The unitary authorities include some key tests for Labour which should allow them to notch up some relatively easy gains against the Conservatives. But will those be offset by losses to the Lib Dems and the Green Party elsewhere? Leicester will be a particularly interesting contest which could offer a silver lining for the Conservatives.