The most important thing to understand about the Government’s approach to striking unions is that it wants to do a deal. Waiting lists cannot be reduced and growth achieved unless those on the picket lines are back at work. That has not always been the case. Last winter, with the Conservatives in disarray and inflation on the up, the unions believed they could bring the country to a standstill and hold ministers over a barrel.
Rishi Sunak, Steve Barclay, Mark Harper, and co, therefore, had to prove to the unions that this was not 1979. When Margaret Thatcher came to power, over half the workforce was unionised. Now it is only 23 per cent. Even then, it is far harder to shutdown the economy in the age of Zoom. We had a winter of mild irritation, not discontent.
The Prime Minister channeled his inner Michael Atherton and stood firm. First to prove to the unions their own weakness, and secondly in the hope that public opinion would turn against those striking if disruption became too great. He has succeeded at the former but has struggled with the latter. Nurses currently enjoy 67 per cent public support, doctors 59 per cent, and teachers 60 per cent.
Nonetheless, the Government’s approach – holding firm, but always making clear it was willing to talk- has proved to the more pragmatic amongst union leaders that striking indefinitely is pointless and that settling is the most sensible approach. With recent positive noises emerging from the private sector (ish) disputes with the railways and postal service, the hope is that deals can be struck in the public sector too.
So the vote by the Royal College of Nursing to reject Steve Barclay’s pay offer to health workers – a one-off bonus payment alongside a five per cent pay rise for 2023-4 – is a setback. The vote was narrow (54 per cent to 46 per cent), an achievement after they initially demand 19 per cent. But they already plan to strike the Bank Holiday weekend, and will ballot for a mandate to do so “until Christmas”, according to their leader.
Ambulance workers have announced they will join the nurses next weekend. Fears abound of a summer of sequential strikes, where different groups coordinate to take turns walking out. NHS waiting lists already stand at over seven million and more than 530,000 appointments and operations have been cancelled. Further strikes make meeting Sunak’s waiting list pledge nigh-on impossible to reach if he also wants to halve inflation, grow the economy, and have debt falling.
Nevertheless, hope springs eternal. There are two unions – Unite and GMB – who still have to vote on the health workers deal. Since Unite has already announced further walkouts, they are likely to reject it. But ministers reportedly believe GMB will back it, providing the votes to implement the deal over the nurses and paramedics’ heads. They could still strike, but they would surely lose momentum as they watched their pay packets expand.
Settling relies upon the unions being reasonable, with negotiations being led by experienced dealmakers whose ultimate priority is a sum for their workers, rather than political posturing. Sunak markets himself as a man you can do business with. But what happens when he is confronted by people who don’t want to deal? Step forward the British Medical Association, and the Corbynista leadership of our junior doctors.
The problem the Prime Minister and Health Secretary have is that BMA’s leadership are more interested in re-fighting the last general election than they are settling for their members and returning to their patients. Deploying increasingly hard-line tactics – including last week’s unprecedented four-day strike, or refusing to warn management – is their route to doing what the Absolute Boy could not. That their campaign may contribute to surging numbers of excess deaths does not appear to trouble them too badly.
The BMA’s two co-chairs are demanding a 35 per cent increase for their members. This is simply unaffordable – especially when junior doctors are hardly the most hard-pressed of workers at the moment (ignore the Pret a Manger comparisons – as Kate Andrews highlights, a typical junior doctor makes £37,000 in their first year). It is not a sum designed for negotiating. The pair are reportedly silent in meetings with Barclay, unwilling to reduce themselves to talking to a Conservative minister.
This leaves Sunak on a sticky wicket. Ongoing disruption undermines his central pitch that he is a competent man who can be trusted to make politics as boring as possible. The heir to Stanley Baldwin has no interest in re-fighting the General Strike. Inflation is already proving harder to bring down than ministers had hoped – showing, perhaps, the mistake of claiming credit for something nominally the responsibility of the ever-capable Andrew Bailey.
Is there a route out? Junior doctors may well tire of their union leadership’s unique interpretation of the Hippocratic Oath, but 77 per cent of those eligible to vote backed the most recent action. If inflation does start to come down, continuing action may seem unreasonable and reduce public sympathy. Explicit coordination and politicking would make the BMA’s cynicism clear. These are familiar arguments, and public opinion does not appear to be shifting yet.
Even then, there are still strikes from the teachers and civil service to contend with. For weary ministers, the only choice is to continue trudging on towards the next dispute, hoping voters give them credit for being the adults in the room. Folding is not an option as long as Sunak’s fundamental commitment to fiscal sanity remains resolute (and as long as public sector pensions remain untouchable). But will his rectitude come at the cost of his pledge to bring down waiting lists?