If the Conservatives get a real drubbing in today’s local elections, will Rishi Sunak face a leadership challenge? Some of the Prime Minister’s critics might argue that would be only fair. In the 2019 local elections when the same seats were being contested we lost 1,300 of them. Three weeks later Theresa May resigned. Why should Sunak be able to stay if there are substantial further losses? If Boris Johnson or Liz Truss had been allowed to continue until now, would they not face a challenge if the results are very poor?
Others might argue that it is precisely because we have been dispensing with leaders at such a bewildering rate that a further change should not be contemplated whatever tonight may bring. The magic of numbers is such that if the Conservatives lose over a thousand seats that will be the headline, if the losses are in the hundreds then they will be claimed as “better than expected”. But the comparison with Labour is the most relevant and here the projected national vote share will be worth looking out for. Usually, Labour under-performs on their opinion poll number. But by how much? If their lead in vote share is down to single figures that might be regarded as a relief.
“We are in the post-euphoria, pre-delivery stage,” New Labour spin doctors used to mutter during the early years of Tony Blair’s premiership, in response to poor local election results or some other setback. Sunak has announced his five pledges but they have not yet been delivered. Yet they may well be, if he is given the chance.
Halving inflation, for example, is likely to happen quite soon. Monetarists argue that inflation is caused when we create more money without matching it with creating more stuff to spend it on. The money supply increase (or “quantitative easing” as we now call it) happened on a huge scale during the lockdown with the Bank of England creating money and then handing it over to the Government to spend. So we had inflation. The quantitative easing has stopped and so inflation will come back down. There will be some arguments about the details. The length of the time lag. The impact of a “tight” monetary policy of higher interest rates and tighter rules on bank lending. How reliable the measure of inflation is. (The CPI doesn’t include house prices.) But the money supply is the key. Blaming the trade unions, or Vladimir Putin, or something else is a distraction. If the monetarists are right, then inflation is bound to fall quite quickly and quite sharply.
Or the pledge to stop small boats. If those who enter this country illegally are sent to Rwanda then it is unlikely that many will persist in using the people smugglers. The Illegal Migration Bill may well prove effective. But if it doesn’t then the Government would find it imperative to take further measures. Withdrawal from the European Convention on Human Rights, facing backbench rebellions, Ministerial resignations, an ill-tempered game of legislative “ping pong” with the House of Lords. Whatever it takes. Sunak might not be temperamentally attracted to such a confrontational approach but he would face no alternative.
In other words, Conservatives should be patient with Sunak for a bit longer rather than undermine him with an abstention or a protest vote.
Then there is the consideration that these are local elections. Labour has tried to ignore that – for instance calling for a energy windfall tax and adding, “Vote Labour on Thursday 4th May to make it happen.” Twitter “added context” stating:
“Voting for Labour on Thursday 4th May would not make this happen. The elections are for councils who have no power to do this.”
The Conservatives have made rather more relevant points – that a Conservative Council will typically have a lower Council Tax and fix more potholes.
Some may argue the differences are marginal. I was struck by an interview with Ron DeSantis, the Governor of Florida, in the Sunday Telegraph, on the difference that he was able to make. Even though its population is now higher, Florida’s state budget for fiscal year 2022 was just $102 billion, less than half of New York state’s budget of $220 billion. But Florida has better services. He was able to avoid the lockdown restrictions applied elsewhere. Low taxes are attracting the thrusting go-getters – not just those wanting to retire in the sunshine.
This is not America, as David Bowie used to remind us. We have a more centralised system. However, local government can make a difference here too. I have written about what an ideal Conservative Council would be like. As with George Orwell’s pub The Moon Under Water, it doesn’t exist. The challenges that are faced and the responses to them vary. What is being decided today is whether to have elected representatives that will do so with Conservative instincts.
That will include a preference for practical solutions to virtue signalling. That means looking at how the Council’s energy bill can be reduced – rather than a focus on proposing a motion declaring a Climate Emergency. It means taking responsibility rather than blaming others.
Rather than woke festivals at town halls and a descent into divisive identity politics, Conservatives favour genuine inclusion. That means combining civic pride with patriotism. A preference to use “levelling up” funds for restoration and projects to enhance the beauty and character of our cities, towns and villages – rather than ugly “regeneration” schemes to rip them apart.
The Conservative instinct involves seeking value for money, a scepticism of officialdom, and a willingness to work with others – businesses, churches, voluntary groups – rather than the state doing everything.
On your ballot paper today, you will have a choice of fallible individuals to represent you. When Conservative instincts are combined with courage, radicalism, ability, and commitment, heroic accomplishments for the local community are possible. Sometimes the Conservative councillors will fall short, leaving the bureaucrats to exercise real power. There is that uncertainty. But voting for those who will at least set out with the right approach is our best hope.