Cllr Alan Jarrett is the Leader of the Conservative Group on Medway Council
On a gloomy day for us Conservatives on May 4th, few places were gloomier than here in Medway. Not just because we lost control of the Council after 23 years, but the manner in which it was lost and the underpinning reasons, some of which could have been avoided.
There will no doubt be those who seek to use statistics as some sort of consolation, but even if our share of the vote did increase by a miserly 0.5 per cent that could not match the Labour increase of over five per cent. However, the result is more nuanced than that, with a number of factors combining to create a perfect storm, allowing Labour to win control.
Three main factors combined to see the first Labour victory in the 26-year life of Medway Unitary: an extensive boundary review which saw the creation of two more wards and four additional council seats; the unpopularity of the Conservative government on a number of fronts; together with an openly split Conservative Group; and a corresponding somewhat fragmented election campaign across our three constituency parties.
Boundary Review
The boundary review was a disaster for us with some safe Conservative wards broken up, whilst several marginal wards were made even more marginal than before. Conversely, safe wards saw the boundaries changed in order to pile up additional votes, whilst neighbouring wards had their majorities shaved wafer-thin.
Rock-solid Conservative areas saw our ascendancy lighter than before, with the net number of our seats reduced. The creation of single member wards played to our advantage in two areas but at the expense of lost seats nearby. The review can best be described as a death by a thousand cuts, and even if all parties had an equal opportunity to put their case, there can be no doubt that Labour’s submission was far superior to our own.
The Government
The mantra that all governments become unpopular is a truism, however, when that unpopularity becomes engrained, the prospects for local elections become more problematic than before. A major source of disquiet in Medway has been centrally-imposed housing targets, which can best be described in Medway’s case as excessively high and disproportionate to need, as evidenced by the latest population census. This played into the hands of so-called Independents, and also our Labour opposition.
Elsewhere in Kent, discontent primarily over planning issues driven by those housing numbers has seen hard-working Conservative Leaders lose their seats in Canterbury, Thanet, Dover, and Folkstone. The government claim that its housing targets are a ‘start point’ has done little to placate voters, in the knowledge that nothing of any real substance has been done to curb the power of the Planning Inspectorate to mandate what will be built and where.
The paucity of primary care provision has been another major source of disquiet. The difficulty of even getting to speak to somebody at GP surgeries has become a real irritant to voters, with the propect of actually getting an appointment to see a GP one of the reasons for higher demand at A&E – with the ripple effect throughout the NHS obvious.
One of the things feeding the perception of the cost of living crisis has been the decision taken in the last national budget to freeze personal and other tax allowances until 2026. Although these have perhaps yet to feed through, the public at large know this additional pressure is on its way.
Division
There is an unwritten rule that divided parties do not win elections. In our case there had been a long-running disagreement over housing targets and the emerging local plan. That coupled with not very well hidden – and completely unsuccessful – attempts to overthrow the group leadership achieved no more than give the opposition a boost in morale just when it needed it most.
Over the last 23 years our group has pulled together, even in difficult times. Any disagreements have been dealt with behind closed doors, but all that changed over the last 18 months or so with open rebellion against the Conservative Group whip. To demonstrate to the electorate that there is division in the ruling political group creates uncertainly and an opportunity for a wise opposition to exploit.
Our borough-wide election material has traditionally been of the highest quality, as was the case with this manifesto. It is essential in any election to maintain the highest standard of printed material, in order to make the maximum impact in the shortest possible time.
The victorious Labour party would be entitled to cheap political jibes, but when it described our campaign as ‘the most shambolic it had ever seen in Medway’ it certainly gave us food for thought. We would of course not agree, but when a record of six consecutive election victories spread over 23 unbroken years crumbles there will have to be some soul-searching, not least because we have historically bucked both local and national trends.
Medway has changed hugely over the last 26 years. Much of that change is embedded and will continue no matter how incompetent a new adminstration may turn out to be. It is however, right to worry for the future of the area, and to worry for the future prospects of those who live here. Although we Conservatives lost the 2023 election, there is a real concern that it is the people of Medway who will eventually be the real losers.
In Medway it was not just an electorate lashing out against an unpopular government which brought defeat, and there is a long way to go before an uninspiring Labour Party are fit for government. But those hard-working councillors who are no longer in office may point a finger at our own Government amid accusations of being let down. They may have a point.