Sebastian Payne is Director of Onward.
Just who are Millennials, and why should you care about them?
Born in the 1980s and 1990s in the run up to the Millennium, they are a generation lodged between two harder-edged demographics: the younger, more radical Generation Z, and the older, more financially secure Generation X.
Their initial careers were defined by the financial crisis: these 25-to-40-year-olds are entering the peak of their earning capabilities, yet face an uncertain future.
Politically, Millennials stand out as a generation. They are optimists at heart.
They care more about housing and taxation than the population as a whole, but less about defence and transport. They are more concerned about good-quality housing at affordable prices, but are less worried about being unwell and relying on the NHS. They are less bothered about so-called culture war issues than Generation X, but are more opposed to drug legalisation than Generation Z.
As with all generational groups, Millennials are not wholly coherent: the 25-30 year olds have social attitudes more aligned with 18-24 year olds (a particularly liberal outlook on immigration for example), whereas the 35-39 year olds have more conservative views on taxation akin to those over the age of 40.
But they are worthy of consideration as a whole because they broadly share a similar outlook on economic, cultural, and societal issues.
What Millennials think matters. They are currently 26 per cent of the electorate, which will naturally grow over the next decade. They are already the largest generation in just over half of constituencies, and outnumber the older Generation X in two thirds of seats.
Crucially, they are dominant in seats where the Conservatives are electorally challenged: central London, but also increasingly in the surrounding Home Counties. This generation should contain the foundations of the party’s future core vote.
Yet the party is struggling to win their backing. Millennials pose a challenge to the Conservative Party because they are the first cohort not to become more right-wing as they age. In fact, they are the first generation to become more left-wing over time.
They are failing to acquire many attributes that have traditionally taken voters rightwards: home ownership, secure and stable employment, starting families. Without a stake in society, their political preferences are trending in the opposite direction.
Many generalist assumptions are made about Millennials: that they are all left-wingers focused on social liberalism, with big-state, redistributive views on the economy.
Yet this cohort deserves a thorough examination of why they have developed a particular aversion to the Conservative Party.
Onward has today released Missing Millennials, new research which represents the first major in-depth examination of British Millennials. Through polling and focus groups, we have formed a picture of why they are not trending rightwards.
Within the findings, the greatest hope for the Conservatives is that Millennials are actually what we call “shy capitalists”.
They are optimistic about their financial futures: they have great confidence in having opportunities to prosper in the years ahead – much more so than other generations.
On the surface, they appear to have more left-leaning economic values, believing in equality above other attributes. But buried beneath lie instincts more in tune with the centre-right.
Millennials believe that governments should not focus on redistributing income from the better-off. More so than 18-24 year olds and 45-54 year olds, they believe people should have a right to decide what to do with their own money. With the right message on taxation, there is a clear opportunity for the Conservatives to woo them.
Yet despite their economic view, Millennials are highly adverse to the Conservative Party.
The majority of this cohort has only experienced a working career in the wake of the 2008 crash, and they seem to blame the party for their economic struggles. Their top attributes about the Tories are “dishonest”, “incompetent”, and “out of touch”, whereas they believe the Labour party “stands up for people like me”, is “relatable”, and “has a vision for a country”.
These perceptions are directly translating into their voting intentions. Two thirds believe that the party “does not deserve” to win the next general election, and just 21 per cent of Millennials said they would vote Conservative in a poll tomorrow, compared to 45 per cent for the Labour party.
Turning around these perceptions will be tough. Yet there is one immediate hope. Among voters in their 30s, Rishi Sunak is 25 points more popular than the party. Younger Millennials put the Prime Minister 20 points ahead of the Conservatives’ standing.
Come the next election, therefore, his personal popularity with this portion of the electorate offers an opportunity to win some of them back over.
Our research has also identified a portion of the electorate that are “pro-Sunak, not Tory” voters. They are less likely to be white, more likely to live in urban areas with higher level jobs, and own a home.
Along with the rest of the electorate, the economy and cost of living crisis is what they are most concerned about – but they place housing, taxation, and childcare higher up the list of pressing issues.
But Millennials are not a radical generation. Just over half said they preferred gradual change; the typical Millennials takes a small-c conservative approach – cautious and evolutionary.
For Millennials, it is all about economics; they show little interest or appetite in debating cultural issues. Although our research suggested that they do care about race, gender, and freedom of speech, economic issues always triumph. Much of the social media conversation about culture war issues appears to be divorced from what the majority of Millennials think.
When it comes to winning over this generation, the message is clear: focus on improving the economy, lowering taxes, and other tangible issues that matter to their lives.
Every political party has to make choices about which voters to target over others — and some will make the case that Millennials should not be the focus now. There are other cohorts who are more likely to turn out to vote and easier to win over to the Conservative cause.
But in future elections, Millennials will be the dominant generation, and they should not be ignored by the Tories. Unless they can be convinced that the Conservatives will make their lives better, an electoral timebomb awaits.
Sebastian Payne is Director of Onward.
Just who are Millennials, and why should you care about them?
Born in the 1980s and 1990s in the run up to the Millennium, they are a generation lodged between two harder-edged demographics: the younger, more radical Generation Z, and the older, more financially secure Generation X.
Their initial careers were defined by the financial crisis: these 25-to-40-year-olds are entering the peak of their earning capabilities, yet face an uncertain future.
Politically, Millennials stand out as a generation. They are optimists at heart.
They care more about housing and taxation than the population as a whole, but less about defence and transport. They are more concerned about good-quality housing at affordable prices, but are less worried about being unwell and relying on the NHS. They are less bothered about so-called culture war issues than Generation X, but are more opposed to drug legalisation than Generation Z.
As with all generational groups, Millennials are not wholly coherent: the 25-30 year olds have social attitudes more aligned with 18-24 year olds (a particularly liberal outlook on immigration for example), whereas the 35-39 year olds have more conservative views on taxation akin to those over the age of 40.
But they are worthy of consideration as a whole because they broadly share a similar outlook on economic, cultural, and societal issues.
What Millennials think matters. They are currently 26 per cent of the electorate, which will naturally grow over the next decade. They are already the largest generation in just over half of constituencies, and outnumber the older Generation X in two thirds of seats.
Crucially, they are dominant in seats where the Conservatives are electorally challenged: central London, but also increasingly in the surrounding Home Counties. This generation should contain the foundations of the party’s future core vote.
Yet the party is struggling to win their backing. Millennials pose a challenge to the Conservative Party because they are the first cohort not to become more right-wing as they age. In fact, they are the first generation to become more left-wing over time.
They are failing to acquire many attributes that have traditionally taken voters rightwards: home ownership, secure and stable employment, starting families. Without a stake in society, their political preferences are trending in the opposite direction.
Many generalist assumptions are made about Millennials: that they are all left-wingers focused on social liberalism, with big-state, redistributive views on the economy.
Yet this cohort deserves a thorough examination of why they have developed a particular aversion to the Conservative Party.
Onward has today released Missing Millennials, new research which represents the first major in-depth examination of British Millennials. Through polling and focus groups, we have formed a picture of why they are not trending rightwards.
Within the findings, the greatest hope for the Conservatives is that Millennials are actually what we call “shy capitalists”.
They are optimistic about their financial futures: they have great confidence in having opportunities to prosper in the years ahead – much more so than other generations.
On the surface, they appear to have more left-leaning economic values, believing in equality above other attributes. But buried beneath lie instincts more in tune with the centre-right.
Millennials believe that governments should not focus on redistributing income from the better-off. More so than 18-24 year olds and 45-54 year olds, they believe people should have a right to decide what to do with their own money. With the right message on taxation, there is a clear opportunity for the Conservatives to woo them.
Yet despite their economic view, Millennials are highly adverse to the Conservative Party.
The majority of this cohort has only experienced a working career in the wake of the 2008 crash, and they seem to blame the party for their economic struggles. Their top attributes about the Tories are “dishonest”, “incompetent”, and “out of touch”, whereas they believe the Labour party “stands up for people like me”, is “relatable”, and “has a vision for a country”.
These perceptions are directly translating into their voting intentions. Two thirds believe that the party “does not deserve” to win the next general election, and just 21 per cent of Millennials said they would vote Conservative in a poll tomorrow, compared to 45 per cent for the Labour party.
Turning around these perceptions will be tough. Yet there is one immediate hope. Among voters in their 30s, Rishi Sunak is 25 points more popular than the party. Younger Millennials put the Prime Minister 20 points ahead of the Conservatives’ standing.
Come the next election, therefore, his personal popularity with this portion of the electorate offers an opportunity to win some of them back over.
Our research has also identified a portion of the electorate that are “pro-Sunak, not Tory” voters. They are less likely to be white, more likely to live in urban areas with higher level jobs, and own a home.
Along with the rest of the electorate, the economy and cost of living crisis is what they are most concerned about – but they place housing, taxation, and childcare higher up the list of pressing issues.
But Millennials are not a radical generation. Just over half said they preferred gradual change; the typical Millennials takes a small-c conservative approach – cautious and evolutionary.
For Millennials, it is all about economics; they show little interest or appetite in debating cultural issues. Although our research suggested that they do care about race, gender, and freedom of speech, economic issues always triumph. Much of the social media conversation about culture war issues appears to be divorced from what the majority of Millennials think.
When it comes to winning over this generation, the message is clear: focus on improving the economy, lowering taxes, and other tangible issues that matter to their lives.
Every political party has to make choices about which voters to target over others — and some will make the case that Millennials should not be the focus now. There are other cohorts who are more likely to turn out to vote and easier to win over to the Conservative cause.
But in future elections, Millennials will be the dominant generation, and they should not be ignored by the Tories. Unless they can be convinced that the Conservatives will make their lives better, an electoral timebomb awaits.