James Frayne is Director of Public First and author of Meet the People, a guide to moving public opinion.
Each day, large numbers of people regret their choice of lunchtime sandwich and large numbers regret putting on a pair of uncomfortable trousers. And, each day, large numbers of people regret voting for Brexit in 2016.
And, each day, they forget all about these mistakes after a few minutes and move on with their lives.
While politicians, campaigners, and commentators spend their lives thinking about who is up or down in Westminster, most people worry about things like getting GP appointments for elderly relatives who have no smartphone, or how they will get their kids to after school clubs when roads are chock-a-block.
This is how we should read most polls which probe the concept of Brexit regret – polls which show some 2016 leave voters think Brexit has gone badly and that, in turn, regret their vote choice. For most of these apparently angry leavers, Brexit regret is on a par with the dozens of gentle regrets they have throughout a typical day.
Public First has just run a detailed new poll for the academic think tank UK in a Changing Europe. This was the most extensive and systematic deep-dive into public attitudes towards Brexit since we voted to leave the EU seven years ago. The results put the concept of Brexit regret in its proper context.
We can divide 2016 leave voters into four blocks. The biggest, by far, is the politically detached; around 75 per cent of leave voters fall into this group.
These are people for whom it is impossible to discern any strong feelings at all. They typically think Brexit has gone badly so far, but will probably turn out well in the long run. For them, it is all a bit unclear and too early to tell.
You then have ten per cent of leave voters who think Brexit has gone badly and who regret their vote. But of this ten per cent, fewer than half (four per cent of all leave voters) say that, in hindsight, there was no way Brexit could ever have gone well.
This is crucial: it means only four per cent of leave voters have swallowed hardcore Remainers’ line that we were all lied to and that we are need a vote right now to go back in. The group of leavers who align with the continuity remain campaign are therefore vanishingly small in number.
On the face of it, these disaffected leave voters could cause the Conservatives some electoral problems at the next election; some might argue the Tories need to pacify them quickly with a pro-European stance.
Perhaps. But the Conservatives actually have a much bigger problem: the 16 per cent of incandescent leave voters who feel betrayed by politicians’ incompetence and mendacity, and their collective failure to deliver a Brexit that works.
These “betrayed” voters blame idiot leave-minded politicians – basically, the Conservative leadership – for messing up negotiations, for failing to secure our borders and reduce immigration, and for refusing to innovate to deliver economic growth. (Many of these betrayed also blame opposition politicians for trying to wreck the whole thing).
What does all this mean for the Conservatives? Simply put, they must demonstrate to the betrayed that they are doing everything they can to make Brexit work.
Naturally, above all, this means by getting control of our borders. But it also means showing they have ideas to make the most of Brexit freedoms to boost the economy.
Less tangibly, but just as importantly, it means showing that they are prepared to fight for British interests wherever they are challenged. Not aggressively so, but with determination and clarity.
To be fair, Number 10 clearly understand the need for border control. But they are yet to demonstrate that Brexit freedoms can ever boost the economy. In a downturn this is hard, but Brexit should be part of the story of a recovering economy.
A final reality check, however: Brexit regret or betrayal is not the dominant theme for leave voters. It matters a great deal around the margins, and the Conservatives need a strategy to deal with it.
Fundamentally, however, this research shows that the most important thing for the main political parties is to deliver on those things the public really care about: cost of living; the economy; healthcare; anti-social behaviour and border control. The next election will be fought in the mainstream.
James Frayne is Director of Public First and author of Meet the People, a guide to moving public opinion.
Each day, large numbers of people regret their choice of lunchtime sandwich and large numbers regret putting on a pair of uncomfortable trousers. And, each day, large numbers of people regret voting for Brexit in 2016.
And, each day, they forget all about these mistakes after a few minutes and move on with their lives.
While politicians, campaigners, and commentators spend their lives thinking about who is up or down in Westminster, most people worry about things like getting GP appointments for elderly relatives who have no smartphone, or how they will get their kids to after school clubs when roads are chock-a-block.
This is how we should read most polls which probe the concept of Brexit regret – polls which show some 2016 leave voters think Brexit has gone badly and that, in turn, regret their vote choice. For most of these apparently angry leavers, Brexit regret is on a par with the dozens of gentle regrets they have throughout a typical day.
Public First has just run a detailed new poll for the academic think tank UK in a Changing Europe. This was the most extensive and systematic deep-dive into public attitudes towards Brexit since we voted to leave the EU seven years ago. The results put the concept of Brexit regret in its proper context.
We can divide 2016 leave voters into four blocks. The biggest, by far, is the politically detached; around 75 per cent of leave voters fall into this group.
These are people for whom it is impossible to discern any strong feelings at all. They typically think Brexit has gone badly so far, but will probably turn out well in the long run. For them, it is all a bit unclear and too early to tell.
You then have ten per cent of leave voters who think Brexit has gone badly and who regret their vote. But of this ten per cent, fewer than half (four per cent of all leave voters) say that, in hindsight, there was no way Brexit could ever have gone well.
This is crucial: it means only four per cent of leave voters have swallowed hardcore Remainers’ line that we were all lied to and that we are need a vote right now to go back in. The group of leavers who align with the continuity remain campaign are therefore vanishingly small in number.
On the face of it, these disaffected leave voters could cause the Conservatives some electoral problems at the next election; some might argue the Tories need to pacify them quickly with a pro-European stance.
Perhaps. But the Conservatives actually have a much bigger problem: the 16 per cent of incandescent leave voters who feel betrayed by politicians’ incompetence and mendacity, and their collective failure to deliver a Brexit that works.
These “betrayed” voters blame idiot leave-minded politicians – basically, the Conservative leadership – for messing up negotiations, for failing to secure our borders and reduce immigration, and for refusing to innovate to deliver economic growth. (Many of these betrayed also blame opposition politicians for trying to wreck the whole thing).
What does all this mean for the Conservatives? Simply put, they must demonstrate to the betrayed that they are doing everything they can to make Brexit work.
Naturally, above all, this means by getting control of our borders. But it also means showing they have ideas to make the most of Brexit freedoms to boost the economy.
Less tangibly, but just as importantly, it means showing that they are prepared to fight for British interests wherever they are challenged. Not aggressively so, but with determination and clarity.
To be fair, Number 10 clearly understand the need for border control. But they are yet to demonstrate that Brexit freedoms can ever boost the economy. In a downturn this is hard, but Brexit should be part of the story of a recovering economy.
A final reality check, however: Brexit regret or betrayal is not the dominant theme for leave voters. It matters a great deal around the margins, and the Conservatives need a strategy to deal with it.
Fundamentally, however, this research shows that the most important thing for the main political parties is to deliver on those things the public really care about: cost of living; the economy; healthcare; anti-social behaviour and border control. The next election will be fought in the mainstream.