Matt Goodwin is author of ‘Values, Voice and Virtue: The New British Politics’.
One issue that will have a profound impact on the outcome of the general election next year is immigration. Contrary to all those who, after Brexit, argued that Britain had moved on from the politics of immigration, it’s now back with a vengeance and will stay on the landscape for years to come.
Immigration is currently the third most important issue for all voters and the second most important for the people who voted Conservative in 2019 – the people Rishi Sunak must win back if he is to have any chance of retaining power at the next general election.
Contrary to what Cabinet Ministers tell me over dinner – that this concern is only focused on the small boats crossing the Channel – it is being stoked by the spiralling levels of both illegal and legal immigration into Britain, by a palpable and powerful sense among millions of ordinary people that their leaders are pressing the accelerator on mass, continuous immigration.
Many voters have also become far more negative about immigration and how it’s being handled in Westminster. In recent months, the share of all voters who think immigration into Britain has been “too high” has climbed to 61 per cent while the share who think immigration has been “mostly good” for Britain has fallen to just 24 per cent.
Amid an acute cost-of-living crisis, the sharpest downturn in living standards for half a century, a major housing crisis, and rapidly deteriorating public services, many voters have become more sceptical about our unfolding immigration experiment and how it is changing the country. While the British have always welcomed some immigration, and are enthusiastic about genuine refugees, a large majority now feel anxious about the sheer speed and scale of current flows.
They’ve also become more convinced that on this issue “the system” is no longer working and, contrary to what they were promised, nobody in the corridors of power has “taken back control”.
In recent months, the share of all British people who think the Government is managing immigration “badly” has surged to 82 per cent – a view 78 per cent of 2019 Conservative voters share.
Today not even one in ten people think the Government is managing immigration “well”. That’s unsurprising given the chaos on the southern border, reports of asylum-seekers raping and assaulting British women, and record levels of legal immigration.
And few of these voters think Labour have the answers. What worries me most is that, when asked which party would manage immigration best, only 23 per cent back Labour and only 17 per cent the Conservatives – a majority have simply given up on the two big parties altogether, opting for “none of the above” or being unsure.
A very large number of voters, therefore, still feel deeply concerned about the scale of immigration – despite Brexit. They worry about how they feel it’s changing Britain for the worse, andno longer have any confidence in the system to control it or even plan for how migration and population change will continue to impact Britain in the future.
The last time we saw such disillusionment was during the early 2010s. Similar feelings paved the way for the rise of national populism and the vote for Brexit. It is no surprise that people close to Nigel Farage tell me he is increasingly convinced by calls to return to politics. The immigration issue gives him more than enough space in which to do so.
What should be done? How might we rebuild trust in the system, respond to the majority’s entirely understandable concerns and strengthen our democracy?
I’m supportive of the last week’s calls, by the New Conservatives, for the Tories to recommit to what they promised voters in 2019 and earlier: lower immigration. They are right to argue that the centre-right has become dangerously disconnected from the political realignment which came together following the Brexit referendum.
They are calling for significant cuts to visas for care staff, to prioritise retraining and higher pay for British workers so that more enter these professions, and sharp cuts to the number of student visas and their dependants which are propping up our inefficient higher education system. They also want a big rise in the minimum salary threshold for skilled workers so that our immigration policy is genuinely “high skill”, and to cap the number of refugees.
Their overall aim is to bring net migration into Britain down from over 600,000 a year to closer to the 200-250,000 range that was recorded in 2019. Given recent studies suggest most voters would like to see net migration fall to 50,000-100,000, the numbers advocated by the New Conservatives might strike many voters as still too high. But I think these policies, if phased in gradually, are sensible and in line with the voters.
The call to end mass immigration – and replace it with a system of low yet high-skilled migration in a way that weans big business off its addiction to importing cheap workers while incentivising them to prioritise domestic British workers – would appeal to many. But that is much like the promise of these changes appealed to them in 2016, 2017, and then again 2019. Whether Number 10 acknowledges this and is willing to look beyond small boats in the Channel is another matter.
But we also need to plan far more seriously for how past immigration, which is now the main driver of Britain’s population growth, is going to impact the economy, the environment, public services, our water supply, and much else in the years ahead.
Even in the unlikely event that immigration is reduced, past migration means Britain’s population is still forecast to grow by at least another five million people by the year 2045 – equivalent to two Manchesters. If Britain retains the current unprecedented rates of net migration at above 500,000 per annum, this growth will be even more striking, leaving us as the largest and most densely-populated nation in Europe. Yet no public body is actively planning and preparing for how this immigration and demographic change will be managed.
This is why I’ve also been won over by a proposal by Lord Hodgson to establish a new Office for Demographic Change, which, if not resolving the wider problem, will at least allow us to better manage these population pressures.
Modelled along the lines of the Office for Budget Responsibility, the ODC would at least ensure that somebody is carrying out authoritative, independent, transparent, and evidence-based research into the longer-term impact of immigration and population change. And this would not be concerned solely with the economy but also mapping and managing thus enormous pressure in all its forms – on housing, the NHS, the environment, public utilities, social cohesion, and the well-being of citizens.
When it comes to the politics of immigration, Rishi Sunak is unlikely to win over hearts and minds in time for the next general election. Public despair and disillusionment, building for more than a decade, are simply too intense and widespread. People know that on immigration a long line of Conservative governments have consistently over-promised and under-delivered.
But if the Conservatives are to avoid a complete meltdown next year they could at least begin to reconnect with their voters on the salient issue of immigration, by returning to the promises they made in 2019 and putting in place things that would help the British people control and manage the significant change which is now swirling around them.