In the last week, three Conservative selections have been won by younger men with experience in local government: John Cope in Esher and Walton, Yousef Dahmash in Rugby, and Lewis Cocking in Broxbourne. Similar to the recent selection of Charlies Davis in Eltham and Chislehurst, there is a suggestion that these selections involve local “favourite sons”.
Each seat has been historically relatively safe. Dominic Raab had a majority of 38.9 per cent in Esher and Walton in 2017. But that was slashed to 4.4 per cent in 2019 after a concerted campaign by the Liberal Democrats. By contrast, the Conservative majority in Rugby is 26.5 per cent over Labour, and Broxbourne’s Conservatives are defending a majority of 42.4 per cent from Charles Walker.
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Cope – who has previously written for ConservativeHome – is the Conservative Group Leader on Elmbridge Borough Council and has been since 2021. Professionally, he is Executive Director for Strategy at UCAS. He was against Tania Mathias, former Twickenham MP, Lisa Townsend, Surrey Police and Crime Commissioner (and ConHome columnist), and Tony de Vizio, a local Conservative.
According to local Conservatives, Cope is a “hyper-local” figure who is “very active and popular” amongst local members. Asides from Mathias, all of the final three lived in Surrey – and were the three Surrey residents to make it through from a long-list of eight. As such, that Mathias wasn’t from Surrey “mattered a lot” in her failure to be selected.
Furthermore, Surrey has gone from being “very safe” to facing a “big challenge from the Lib Dems”. As such, the fact that Mathias beat Vince Cable in 2015 but lost to him in 2017 counted against her. Whilst de Vizio lost on the first ballot, Mathias went out on the second, and the final two were the local Cope and Townsend – and the “favourite son”, “a talented candidate”, triumphed.
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Similarly, Rugby Conservatives chose “lifelong Rugby resident” Dahmash, a county councillor, as their candidate to replace Mark Pawsey. Self-described as “no fan of the radical left”, he has been a parliamentary assistant for Pawsey since 2010. He was up against Helen Harrison, who had previously stood in Chippenham, and Luke Gardiner, a Downing Street SPAD.
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Meanwhile, in Broxbourne, Lewis Cocking triumphed from a field comprised of Emma Best, a London-wide Member of the London Assembly, Nikki da Costa, the former Number 10 Director of Legislative Affairs, and Jacob Sugarman, a Barrister who has previously stood in Lewes. Cocking is the current Leader of Broxbourne Council.
One Conservative who attended the selection meeting explained it was clear that Cocking was “a lovely guy” and the “candidate the association wanted”. Undoubtedly, the quick turnaround from the long-list meeting the previous day benefited a candidate who already knew the constituency well. But there were “few floating voters” in an “emphatic victory” for the local man.
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Each of these selections raises a question previously considered by our Editor: to what extent do we want our MPs to be glorified local councillors? The tendency in recent Tory selections has been to pick people with long-standing ties to the constituency over those one might consider “big names” or “SW1 insiders”.
Undoubtedly, there are benefits to candidates having deep ties to their constituencies and being able to provide an honest and informed voice for it in Westminster. But MPs aren’t only representatives of their voters. They are potential ministers, whose concerns inevitably must range beyond potholes or the state of a local Accident and Emergency.
What is clear is that there must be some sort of conversation between CCHQ and local associations to highlight this issue. Otherwise, current concerns about a paucity of ministerial talent at the apex of our parliamentary party are only going to grow.