At ConservativeHome’s most recent count, 46 Tory MPs are planning to stand down at the next election. Amongst these are various veterans of the Commons, such as Bill Cash or Crispin Blunt. But there also 30 – if I’ve got my sums right – who have been elected since 2010.
This turnover is more obvious than in 2017 or 2019. With both being snap elections called less than three years into a Parliament, the decision of MPs to retire was one that needed to be made on the hoof. With no election likely until October or November next year, current MPs have much longer to dwell on their futures, and make an announcement of departure ahead of time.
MPs stand down for a variety of reasons. Dehenna Davison – one of the most prominent members of the 2019 intake – claims being an MP at a young age has robbed her of a “normal life for a twentysomething”. By contrast, Sajid Javid – MP for Bromsgrove since 2010 – has managed to pack half a dozen Cabinet posts, a couple of resignations, and a leadership bid in 14 years. Politics? Completed it mate.
Indeed, the pace of political life over the last decade or so makes it no wonder that some MPs feel they’ve had enough. Of those standing down, 16 were elected in 2010. As James Forsyth (whatever happened to him?) pointed out last year, that means they have “campaigned in four general elections, two referendums, and four Tory leadership elections”. No wonder they fancy putting their feet up.
But burnout is not the only reason why MPs are standing down, or why those who entered Parliament so (relatively) recently would choose to leave the Commons. Two MPs have been murdered in the last decade. It is a job with particular demands and stresses, and which fails to pay as well as many comparable occupations. Why stay to offer ex-ministerial wisdom for future generations when you can go and earn more – for a lot less hassle – elsewhere?
When analysing those MPs elected in 2010 or subsequently who have chosen to exit – excluding those who either had the whip removed or defected, and including those currently without the Whip (in the assumption it could be returned by the election) – a variety of interesting trends emerge.
The average time spent as an MP for someone elected in 2010, 2015, 2017, and 2019 and that has either stood down within that time or has announced they are going to – counting the gap between 2017 and 2019 as two years, assuming that the next election is in the autumn of 2024 – is 9.8 years for men, and 7.0 for women.
The most popular year for standing down – across both sexes – was 2019, with 15 MPs, followed by 2015, with nine. The election that saw the most women stand down was 2019. The second most common year for men – after next year – was 2015. One also notes those MPs who didn’t want to wait for an election, such as Louis Bagshawe in 2012, Stephen Phillips in 2016, and Boris Johnson and Nigel Adams this year.
Following the announcement that Jessica Lee was standing down in 2015, Mark Wallace expressed concern that eleven per cent of the female intake of 2010 had chosen to leave the Commons at the first opportunity. Both Andrew Gimson and himself were worried that female MPs were standing down faster than their male colleagues due to concerns about family life, the old boys’ club, and social media abuse.
Whilst there is an obvious trend for female MPs standing down earlier, one also has to be aware of personal circumstances. One should take the Anna Karenina approach to leaving the Commons: each departing MP is departing in their own way.
One also notes that in the most common years for standing down – 2015, 2019, and, we assume, 2024 – Tory MPs would be suspecting they might face a change of government and a place in Opposition. In 2015 and 2024, that would be due to unfriendly polls. In 2019, it would be those MPs – like Margot James or Jo Johnson – who disagreed with the direction of a Brexiteer government.
Which brings us to the nub of the issue. Yes, it is of interest that more than a tenth of the current parliamentary party wants to stand down. But that also raises the prospect that nine-tenths want to stay: despite being 20 points behind in the polls, staring a potential big election defeat in the fact, and facing a long spell in Opposition.
Despite all the complaints we hear about the long hours, poor pay, and constant abuse our elected representatives face, the vast majority of Tory MPs still want to be part of the political game. Over half of current backbenchers might have been ministers, and many are unlikely to be so again. Yet they still want to be in the arena – or at least go down fighting.
That may well either be because they still have dreams of climbing that greasy pole, or because of a genuine desire to represent their localities. Politics may have sped up and got nastier in recent years. But getting a whiff of the greatest aphrodisiac remains an attraction for many.