I have a tab open as I write to our first Cabinet League Table of 2020. Then, no Minister ranked below 30 points.
Now, only five rank above that total, eight are in negative ratings (one below our recent record of nine), 22 come in below 20 points (that’s over half the total) and 11 below 10 points (i.e. roughly a third).
This is the response of a demoralised panel braced for defeat. At just over 700 replies, the low response rate reflects not only the summer season but diminished expectations. Against this background, last month’s modest post-Uxbridge by-election recovery looks like a dead cat bounce.
However, none of the scores are on the journey-to-the-centre-of-earth scale of Theresa May, Philip Hammond and Chris Grayling at their lowest – and so have about them an air of exhaustion rather than anger.
Two months ago, Rishi Sunak was in negative ratings. Last month, he was up at mid-table, albeit on a lowly 21 points. Now he is back in the red again, with eight familiar others, including the new Defence Secretary, and Oliver Dowden escaping by a whisker.
With Ben Wallace gone on a farewell total of 76 points, Kemi Badenoch goes top on 59, eleven points clear of Penny Mordaunt on 48 and 15 above Johnny Mercer on 44. Gillian Keegan is down from 22 points to ten; Claire Courtino attracts a swathe of don’t knows”; Robert Jenrick foots the table.
For all the gloom, the usual caveats apply. The market is fickle. What goes down can come up. It’s a changeable wind. We are at least the best part of a year off an election.
All the same, this is a bleak return for the Government as Parliament resumes.