Matt Goodwin is author of Values, Voice and Virtue: The New British Politics.
In recent weeks the politics of ULEZ and Net Zero have surged to the forefront of British politics, with the Conservative Party’s recent by-election victory in Uxbridge and South Ruislip seen by many as evidence of the need to campaign on this issue at the looming general election.
But what to voters, and especially Conservative Party voters, really think about this issue? To explore this question in depth, my firm People Polling recently polled a nationally representative sample of 1,175 British adults, including a sample of people who voted for Boris Johnson and the Conservatives in 2019.
Consistent with other national polling, the first thing we found was a commanding lead for the Labour Party of some 24-points. Look under the bonnet and you’ll soon see why.
Today, Rishi Sunak and the Conservatives are only retaining support from half of the people who turned out for the party in 2019 while their share of support from Brexit voters has collapsed, from about 75 per cent at the time of Johnson’s election victory in 2019 to only 40 per cent today.
In other words the post-Brexit realignment of British politics, in other words, which saw the Tories hoover up much higher levels of support from working-class, non-graduate, and older voters, has well and truly imploded.
Disillusioned and disgruntled with the general direction of the party in recent months, about one in five of these voters have decamped to Reform, while close to one-quarter of them, typically middle-class professionals in the Tory shires, have switched to Labour, the Liberal Democrats or the Greens.
And what do voters think of ULEZ? Well, they’re nowhere near as supportive as you might think were you to listen only to the London-based commentariat and Sadiq Khan.
When told Transport for London charges £12.50 every day to people who drive small cars, motorcycles, vans, and other vehicles that do not meet certain emissions standards for driving within the Ultra-Low Emissions Zone (ULEZ), and then asked to what extent if at all they support the measures, only 32 per cent of all voters voice their support while 42 per cent say they are opposed (with 30 per cent feeling strongly opposed).
Drilling down into 2019 Conservative Party voters, they break 19 per cent in support of ULEZ and 64 per cent against, with nearly two-thirds of the people who turned out for Johnson and the party four years ago voicing their strong opposition to ULEZ. This suggests rank-and-file Conservative Party voters are certainly receptive to growing calls to restrict such initiatives in future.
And so too are Brexit voters, who remain an important part of the Conservative Party’s electoral coalition. Overall, they too break 19 per cent in support of ULEZ but 56 per cent against, with much of this public opposition concentrated especially strongly among the more economically marginalised working-class voters who are far more likely to be affected by the ULEZ measures.
Another way of exploring the public mood around ULEZ is to ask a slightly different question, namely whether voters would support or oppose similar surcharges “in their own local area”.
Here again, only one in four of all voters in the country would want to see a ULEZ-type scheme in their immediate local area while 54 per cent would oppose such a scheme. This further underlines the space that exists for parties and politicians which are willing to turn up the volume on their opposition to these Net Zero-type initiatives.
And once again these numbers are especially striking when you look at the very voters who really matter to Sunak and his party at the next election: the 2019 Conservatives. They break strongly against the idea of having a ULEZ in their local area, with only 12 per cent supporting this and more than three-quarters (76 per cent) feeling opposed to it, with 68 per cent feeling strongly opposed.
In fact, such is the strength of feeling on this issue that it’s also worth noting how many of these voters voice their support for people who have vandalised cameras which enforce the ULEZ charge.
When asked to what extent, if at all, they support people who have vandalised cameras in London, just over one in four of all voters (26 per cent) voice their support while close to half (48 per cent) oppose these questions. Yet among 2019 Conservative Party voters support for these acts of vandalism increases to more than one in three (38 per cent), while 41 per cent are opposed.
Put in other words, the fact more than one in three 2019 Conservative voters are supportive of ordinary citizens damaging ULEZ cameras underlines the intensity of feeling on this issue, and suggests such opposition will remain visible on the political landscape for the foreseeable future.
What such results also underline is, arguably, a growing public unease about the personal financial implications of Net Zero and environmental policies. While large majorities of voters remain instinctively on side with tackling climate change, once you ask them to reflect on the personal financial costs, they simply become much less supportive and more open to alternative political appeals.
We can throw light on this trade-off by asking voters which of the following statements comes closest to their view:
Or, conversely:
Overall, among all voters, only one in eight (16 per cent) support Net Zero initiatives which increase the cost of living for ordinary people while a clear majority (54 per cent) would much rather the government focus its efforts on reducing the cost of living, even if this means it has to do less to reach Net Zero.
Among 2019 Conservatives, once again, the picture is even starker. Just seven per cent want to see their leaders prioritise Net Zero if this increases bills for ordinary people while almost three-quarters of them (72 per cent) want them to prioritise reducing the cost of living no matter what the implication for Net Zero.
Such views, as you might imagine, are also especially widely held among older voters and the working-class, two groups that remain absolutely central to the Conservative Party’s electoral coalition at the rapidly approaching general election.