In April 2017, Theresa May called for an early general election, which Parliament then voted to support, under the provisions of the Fixed Term Parliaments Act. Although she claimed that the poll was necessary for the delivery of Brexit, the Government possessed a small majority in the Commons, and its plan to leave the EU had not yet encountered serious parliamentary resistance.
However, the opinion polls were giving the Conservatives a 21-point lead. So the then Prime Minister decided to seek an election and a landslide. Readers will remember what happened next. Had May waited until her then plan hit the Parliamentary buffers (assuming that it would have done), she might have gained seats for the Tories rather than lost them.
In October 2007, the best part of ten years earlier, Gordon Brown said on Andrew Marr’s Sunday political programme that he would not be asking the Queen for a general election. This announcement followed a mass of speculation that the then Prime Minister would do exactly the opposite.
Brown’s team had allowed expectation of an autumn poll to get out of control. His decision not to seek one after all – he was worried that the Conservatives would gain seats even if Labour won – damaged his reputation for courage and decisiveness. And who knows? If he had fought an election that autumn, he might even have gained Labour a fourth successive term.
Rishi Sunak should ponder these contrasting tales of a Prime Minister who rushed into an election and another who ran away from one. For, unlike May, David Cameron and Boris Johnson, he cannot shelter behind the Fixed Term Act, because the latter’s Government abolished it. Ironically, the Prime Minister might have welcomed the shelter it provided, however limited.
For the timing of the next election presents him with one of the most tricky choices he has made since taking office (assuming that timing will affect the outcome, which can’t be proved either way). The cut in National Insurance announced in last week’s Autumn Statement has been brought forward to January coming. Which can only mean that Number Ten is keeping open the option of a spring election.
The logic of plumping for one was set out yesterday in Tim Shipman’s weekly write-up in the Sunday Times. Bring forward the Budget to February. Announce cuts to income tax and perhaps inheritance tax or stamp duty. Give the reduction a few months to bed in with voters. Then go to the polls on May 2, thus raising Conservative voter turnout in mayoral and local elections.
For the Tories will need every vote they can get in London, Teesside and the West Midlands especially – since Ben Houchen and Andy Street are up for further terms. Furthermore, the summer will see rising mortgage rates and more boat crossings. So Sunak would be better to go to the polls early and decisively rather than later and reluctantly.
The counter-arguments are at least as powerful – especially the one which holds that it would be out of character for the Prime Minister to gamble on an early May election if he is still behind in the polls come late March. As I write this piece, Labour are 20 points ahead of them in Politico’s poll of polls.
For what it’s worth, I’ve no view either way. But it’s hard to imagine how Labour’s poll lead could be cut to a handful of points by February. And easier to see how Sunak and Jeremy Hunt, in keeping their options open, could see events gather their own momentum – especially if a tax-cutting Budget comes a bit early, or is followed afterwards by election speculation, or both.
Additionally, there is the future of the Rwanda scheme to consider. If or perhaps when the Lords resists a further immigration Bill, the Prime Minister will come under pressure from some Conservative MPs to put his case to the voters in an election, and it may even be that he comes to see no alternative to doing so himself. Whether such a Bill will or won’t be effective is a matter for another day.
If the polls and local election results haven’t improved by February, there’s a strong case for Sunak putting an end to the lobby game of will he? / won’t he? – and announcing that the election will take place in the autumn. Though research suggests that most voters don’t want to wait that long.