This return from our members’ panel is poor news for Rishi Sunak while not being great news for Suella Braverman.
On the one hand, over half our respondents think that the former was wrong to sack the latter. That 50 per cent plus oppose the Prime Minister’s decision shows majority discontent with his decision – from the panel, at any rate.
On the other, over two in five believe that Sunak was right to fire Braverman. That displays big minority support for the move, not to mention a critical view of Braverman.
The Prime Minister’s recent performance our monthly Cabinet League Table has been skittish. Last month, in our first survey since the Conservative Party Conference, he was on 7.1 points and ninth from bottom.
The month before, in the wake of his Net Zero speech, he was up to 26 points and eighth in the table. Two months ago, he was in the red. We will see where he is in this month’s tomorrow.
But his recent scores and those of other Cabinet members suggest that Party panels are frustrated and demoralised by the Government’s performance.
This return is better for Braverman – in the obvious sense that a majority of the panel believe that Sunak’s decision to sack her was mistaken. And she performed relatively well in her last Cabinet League Table, coming in sixth.
However, her rating, at 43.5 points, wasn’t much to write home about in itself, strictly speaking. And some two-fifths of the panel think that the Prime Minister was right to sack her.
Furthermore, it doesn’t follow that panel members who think he was wrong to do therefore see her as a special favourite – and a suitable future leader.
I suspect is that the average respondent thinks Braverman is right on the substance of the immigration debate, but has reservations about her style – and the terms of her resignation letter, which can only have been helpful to Labour. But your guess is at least as good as mine.