John Baron is MP for Basildon and Billericay.
A common theme in this slot is the consistent belief that the Prime Minister will be returned after the next general election with a good working majority. The current polling may make for grim reading for Conservatives, and the string of by-election defeats are disheartening, but it would be surprising if a Government in office during a global spike in inflation and cost-of-living crisis wasn’t taking a kick in the polls.
However, the Opposition polling lead remains soft, and masks a high ‘don’t know’ contingent, as Labour continues to present itself merely as ‘not the Conservatives’. A Conservative win is still possible, even likely – as long as we all pull together.
Being in government is hard, not least as to govern is to choose. Unlike opposition, when your general impotence means you can call for many things in the knowledge that you don’t have to implement them, compromises are always required. Issues are rarely black and white, and the art of governing is to recognise and understand this. Unfortunately, at the moment too many Conservative colleagues appear to be forgetting this, and are attacking the Government because it is not doing exactly what they want.
To a greater or lesser extent, all parties are coalitions of different groups which overall have more in common with each other than with other parties. This is even true of the SNP, whose iron discipline under Alex Salmond and Nicola Sturgeon masked quite large differences which are increasingly breaking over under Yousaf Humza’s leadership. Used correctly, the party system acts as a powerful marshalling force of these coalitions, directing and conveying a party towards its goals – such as winning an election.
The system, however, starts to break down when these coalitions splinter and start pursuing their own agendas. Then the coalitions start working against each other, effectively doing part of the same job as rival parties – and to their advantage. Just as a disunited SNP are losing ground electorally, so a disunited Conservative Party is likewise being held back. As ever, a house divided against itself will not stand.
Conservative colleagues should not lose sight of the fact that the real opposition is across the Commons Chamber, not amongst us. In speaking against the Government, in criticising the Prime Minister or other colleagues, in tabling hostile amendments and in launching rival economic programmes, they are aiding the opposition’s work rather than the Conservative cause. As Conservatives, we should recognise that it is always our preference for our party to be in government, given we know the damage Labour is capable of when in office.
Those who claim the Conservatives would benefit from a spell in opposition to ‘rest and detox’ are misguided. My first nine years in Parliament were spent in opposition, and it was a frustrating experience. In opposition, even those in the highest positions in political parties are mere commentators, largely unable to shape the debate or effect real change on the ground. This will be even more true if there is indeed a 1997-style wipe-out, as some claim there will be, handing Labour a massive landslide majority.
Over the next few months, the Prime Minister and the Government will be setting out the building blocks of our next election campaign. The Chancellor made a good start in the Autumn Statement, combining an £11 billion set of tax cuts and other measures to support business with a strong commitment to support the less well off, as shown by the substantial increases to the National Living Wage and the Local Housing Allowance. Of course, overall taxation remains high, but this is the price for correctly overseeing one of the most generous support schemes during the pandemic, to ensure no-one was left behind.
The economic news is set to improve further as the global economy gradually recovers from its slumber. Forecasts will continue to shift with the sand, particularly given the current quality of assessments, and pundits will pick and choose whichever prediction best suits their bias. But the reality is that inflation is receding, inward investment remains strong, and we have record employment. Meaningful trade deals offer huge potential – a small example being duty on whisky falling from c.100 per cent to zero in some Pacific Rim economies, resulting in distilleries north of the border expanding capacity.
The reality is that the economy continues to confound its detractors, with both the Office for National Statistics and Office for Budget Responsibility recently upgrading significantly the growth figures they estimated only a few months ago. Of the last 28 forecasts of UK economic growth by the International Monetary Fund, 25 have undershot. The UK economy has been one of the strongest in the G7 since 2010 and Brexit. As highlighted in Prime Minister’s Questions recently, if evidence is required, our unemployment rate is well below the EU average. This is an important statistic – high unemployment being a corrosive social evil.
We should also remember the danger presented by a Labour Government, particularly if propped up by the SNP and/or Liberals. Every single Labour Government since the Second World War has ended in an economic shambles, with unemployment higher than when they entered office. Constitutional vandalism would come into view, with the voting age reduced to 16, plans for proportional representation which could lock Conservatives out of power in perpetuity and an elected House of Lords to rival the Commons – as if the impasse we often see in Washington is something we wish to recreate here. If it is a close election, with the SNP holding the balance of power, it is difficult to imagine a second Scottish independence referendum not being their price of acting as a midwife to a Starmer government.
As the economic good news keeps coming, as voters feel the benefits of this and our tax cuts in their pay packets, and as the harsh light of scrutiny shines on Labour’s vacuous policy programme, the polls will increasingly close in our favour. This suggests the Prime Minister should play the election long, without leaving it to the last minute. Regardless, a famous victory awaits, if Conservatives pull together and want it – divided parties do not win elections.
John Baron is MP for Basildon and Billericay.
A common theme in this slot is the consistent belief that the Prime Minister will be returned after the next general election with a good working majority. The current polling may make for grim reading for Conservatives, and the string of by-election defeats are disheartening, but it would be surprising if a Government in office during a global spike in inflation and cost-of-living crisis wasn’t taking a kick in the polls.
However, the Opposition polling lead remains soft, and masks a high ‘don’t know’ contingent, as Labour continues to present itself merely as ‘not the Conservatives’. A Conservative win is still possible, even likely – as long as we all pull together.
Being in government is hard, not least as to govern is to choose. Unlike opposition, when your general impotence means you can call for many things in the knowledge that you don’t have to implement them, compromises are always required. Issues are rarely black and white, and the art of governing is to recognise and understand this. Unfortunately, at the moment too many Conservative colleagues appear to be forgetting this, and are attacking the Government because it is not doing exactly what they want.
To a greater or lesser extent, all parties are coalitions of different groups which overall have more in common with each other than with other parties. This is even true of the SNP, whose iron discipline under Alex Salmond and Nicola Sturgeon masked quite large differences which are increasingly breaking over under Yousaf Humza’s leadership. Used correctly, the party system acts as a powerful marshalling force of these coalitions, directing and conveying a party towards its goals – such as winning an election.
The system, however, starts to break down when these coalitions splinter and start pursuing their own agendas. Then the coalitions start working against each other, effectively doing part of the same job as rival parties – and to their advantage. Just as a disunited SNP are losing ground electorally, so a disunited Conservative Party is likewise being held back. As ever, a house divided against itself will not stand.
Conservative colleagues should not lose sight of the fact that the real opposition is across the Commons Chamber, not amongst us. In speaking against the Government, in criticising the Prime Minister or other colleagues, in tabling hostile amendments and in launching rival economic programmes, they are aiding the opposition’s work rather than the Conservative cause. As Conservatives, we should recognise that it is always our preference for our party to be in government, given we know the damage Labour is capable of when in office.
Those who claim the Conservatives would benefit from a spell in opposition to ‘rest and detox’ are misguided. My first nine years in Parliament were spent in opposition, and it was a frustrating experience. In opposition, even those in the highest positions in political parties are mere commentators, largely unable to shape the debate or effect real change on the ground. This will be even more true if there is indeed a 1997-style wipe-out, as some claim there will be, handing Labour a massive landslide majority.
Over the next few months, the Prime Minister and the Government will be setting out the building blocks of our next election campaign. The Chancellor made a good start in the Autumn Statement, combining an £11 billion set of tax cuts and other measures to support business with a strong commitment to support the less well off, as shown by the substantial increases to the National Living Wage and the Local Housing Allowance. Of course, overall taxation remains high, but this is the price for correctly overseeing one of the most generous support schemes during the pandemic, to ensure no-one was left behind.
The economic news is set to improve further as the global economy gradually recovers from its slumber. Forecasts will continue to shift with the sand, particularly given the current quality of assessments, and pundits will pick and choose whichever prediction best suits their bias. But the reality is that inflation is receding, inward investment remains strong, and we have record employment. Meaningful trade deals offer huge potential – a small example being duty on whisky falling from c.100 per cent to zero in some Pacific Rim economies, resulting in distilleries north of the border expanding capacity.
The reality is that the economy continues to confound its detractors, with both the Office for National Statistics and Office for Budget Responsibility recently upgrading significantly the growth figures they estimated only a few months ago. Of the last 28 forecasts of UK economic growth by the International Monetary Fund, 25 have undershot. The UK economy has been one of the strongest in the G7 since 2010 and Brexit. As highlighted in Prime Minister’s Questions recently, if evidence is required, our unemployment rate is well below the EU average. This is an important statistic – high unemployment being a corrosive social evil.
We should also remember the danger presented by a Labour Government, particularly if propped up by the SNP and/or Liberals. Every single Labour Government since the Second World War has ended in an economic shambles, with unemployment higher than when they entered office. Constitutional vandalism would come into view, with the voting age reduced to 16, plans for proportional representation which could lock Conservatives out of power in perpetuity and an elected House of Lords to rival the Commons – as if the impasse we often see in Washington is something we wish to recreate here. If it is a close election, with the SNP holding the balance of power, it is difficult to imagine a second Scottish independence referendum not being their price of acting as a midwife to a Starmer government.
As the economic good news keeps coming, as voters feel the benefits of this and our tax cuts in their pay packets, and as the harsh light of scrutiny shines on Labour’s vacuous policy programme, the polls will increasingly close in our favour. This suggests the Prime Minister should play the election long, without leaving it to the last minute. Regardless, a famous victory awaits, if Conservatives pull together and want it – divided parties do not win elections.