The Conservatives are 18 points behind Labour in Politico’s poll of polls. The next election will almost certainly take place within the next twelve months. And the Christmas and New Year period is a time to take stock.
Hence our first Next Tory Leader survey, other than those conducted during leadership elections, since December 2021. It finds Kemi Badenoch, currently top of our Cabinet League Table and our panel’s Minister of the Year, leading the pack with 38 per cent of the vote.
Penny Mordaunt is second on 23 per cent. And Suella Braverman third on 14 per cent. No-one else makes it to double percentage figures.
To the 647 panel members who answered the question one can add 104 comments, most of these alternative names. None would have gained more than three per cent of the vote if included in the options, though the mere fact of inclusion might have boosted their share.
So, for the record, one ineligible candidate, Nigel Farage, had 18 write-in votes and another, Boris Johnson, 16.
It goes almost without saying that there will be no consensus about a list of potential runners and riders. But ours is as likely a list as any in the event of both a Conservative general election loss and then a leadership poll, assuming that all named stand and hold their seats.
Badenoch topped both our and YouGov’s polls (eventually) during the last leadership election but one, so taken together with her recent returns in our surveys this finding is no surprise.
And that’s it for the moment. We may run the same question again at Easter, depending on how matters shape up.