The run-off scores from our latest Next Tory Leader survey for all five candidates are as follows –
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Kemi Badenoch
Kemi Badenoch: 59 per cent. (Last Monday: 40 per cent.)
Penny Mordaunt: 31 per cent. (Last Monday: 46 per cent.)
Don’t know: 10 per cent (Last Monday: 14 per cent.)
(950 votes cast.)
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Kemi Badenoch: 60 per cent. (Last Monday: 56 per cent.)
Rishi Sunak: 34 per cent. (Last Monday: 31 per cent.)
Don’t know: 6 per cent. (Last Monday: 13 per cent.)
(845 votes cast.)
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Kemi Badenoch: 61 per cent (Last Monday: 52 per cent.)
Liz Truss: 31 per cent (Last Monday: 34 per cent.)
Don’t know: 8 per cent. (Last Monday: 14 per cent.)
(848 votes cast.)
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Kemi Badenoch: 66 per cent. (Last Monday: 58 per cent.)
Tom Tugendhat: 26 per cent. (Last Monday: 27 per cent.)
Don’t know: 8 per cent. (Last Monday: 15 per cent.)
(846 votes cast.)
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Liz Truss
Liz Truss: 31 per cent (Last Monday: 34 per cent.)
Kemi Badenoch: 61 per cent (Last Monday: 52 per cent.)
Don’t know: 8 per cent. (Last Monday: 14 per cent.)
(848 votes cast.)
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Liz Truss: 48 per cent. (Last Monday: 33 per cent.)
Penny Mordaunt: 40 per cent. (Last Monday: 51 per cent.)
Don’t know: 11 per cent. (Last Monday: 16 per cent.)
(845 votes cast.)
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Liz Truss: 49 per cent. (Last Monday: 51 per cent.)
Rishi Sunak: 42 per cent (Last Monday: 34 per cent.)
Don’t know: 9 per cent. (Last Monday: 15 per cent.)
(845 votes cast.)
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Liz Truss: 55 per cent. (Last Monday: 55 per cent.)
Tom Tugendhat: 35 per cent. (Last Monday: 29 per cent.)
Don’t know: 9 per cent. (Last Monday: 16 per cent.)
(844 votes cast.)
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Rishi Sunak
Rishi Sunak: 34 per cent. (Last Monday: 31 per cent.)
Kemi Badenoch: 60 per cent. (Last Monday: 56 per cent
Don’t know: 6 per cent. (Last Monday: 13 per cent.)
(845 votes cast.)
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Rishi Sunak: 42 per cent (Last Monday: 34 per cent.)
Liz Truss: 49 per cent. (Last Monday: 51 per cent.)
Don’t know: 9 per cent. (Last Monday: 15 per cent.)
(845 votes cast.)
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Rishi Sunak: 43 per cent. (Last Monday: 41 per cent.)
Penny Mordaunt: 41 per cent. (Last Monday: 58 per cent.)
Don’t know: 15 per cent. (Last Monday: 13 per cent.)
(844 votes cast.)
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Rishi Sunak: 48 per cent. (Last Monday: 41 per cent.)
Tom Tugendhat: 33 per cent. (Last Monday: 30 per cent.)
Don’t know: 18 per cent. (Last Monday: 29 per cent.)
(840 votes cast.)
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Penny Mordaunt
Penny Mordaunt: 31 per cent. (Last Monday: 46 per cent.)
Kemi Badenoch: 59 per cent. (Last Monday: 40 per cent.)
Don’t know: 10 per cent (Last Monday: 14 per cent.)
(950 votes cast.)
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Penny Mordaunt: 40 per cent. (Last Monday: 51 per cent.)
Liz Truss: 48 per cent. (Last Monday: 33 per cent.)
Don’t know: 11 per cent. (Last Monday: 16 per cent.)
(845 votes cast.)
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Penny Mordaunt: 41 per cent. (Last Monday: 58 per cent.)
Rishi Sunak: 43 per cent. (Last Monday: 41 per cent.)
Don’t know: 15 per cent. (Last Monday: 13 per cent.)
(844 votes cast.)
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Penny Mordaunt: 46 per cent. (Last Monday: 61 per cent.)
Tom Tugendhat: 34 per cent. (Last Monday: 23 per cent.)
Don’t know: 19 per cent. (Last Monday: 16 per cent
(841 votes cast.)
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Tom Tugendhat
Tom Tugendhat: 26 per cent. (Last Monday: 27 per cent.)
Kemi Badenoch: 66 per cent. (Last Monday: 58 per cent.)
Don’t know: 8 per cent. (Last Monday: 15 per cent.)
(846 votes cast.)
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Tom Tugendhat: 33 per cent. (Last Monday: 30 per cent.)
Rishi Sunak: 48 per cent. (Last Monday: 41 per cent.)
Don’t know: 18 per cent. (Last Monday: 29 per cent.)
(840 votes cast.)
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Tom Tugendhat: 34 per cent. (Last Monday: 23 per cent.)
Penny Mordaunt: 46 per cent. (Last Monday: 61 per cent.)
Don’t know: 19 per cent. (Last Monday: 16 per cent
(841 votes cast.)
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Tom Tugendhat: 35 per cent. (Last Monday: 29 per cent.)
Liz Truss: 55 per cent. (Last Monday: 55 per cent.)
Don’t know: 9 per cent. (Last Monday: 16 per cent.)
(844 votes cast.)
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The order of play is different from the result of our survey yesterday.
There, Badenoch was top with 31 per cent, Truss second with 20 per cent, Mordaunt third with 18 per cent and Sunak fourth with 17 per cent.
Here, Badenoch wins all four head-to-heads. Truss wins three and loses one. Sunak wins two and loses two. Mordaunt wins one and loses three. Tugendhat loses four.
So Camp Truss, third in the Parliamentary ballot, can argue on the evidence of this survey that she could beat the top two runners in a membership ballot – so her supporters should stick with her. And not desert to right-of-Tory-centre alternatives such as Badenoch.
…And Camp Badenoch, fourth in that ballot, can say that on the evidence of this survey she can trounce all comers – including Sunak. So right-of-Tory-centre MPs should switch to her if they’re not backing her already.
Camp Sunak will argue that their candidate is making progress; Camp Mordaunt that neither MPs nor activists should be deterred by unfair attacks on her character and record; Camp Tugendhat that their guy is a quality candidate and deserves a chance.
Finally, have a look at how the don’t knows have fallen since our Next Tory Leader survey of early this month. Especially when the two candidates regarded as being on the right of the Party, Badenoch and Truss, are in the field.