Last month, our survey found a record share of Conservative activists expecting a Labour majority at the next election: 61 per cent. The festive season has done nothing to revive the panel’s spirits: Rishi Sunak starts an election year with 63 per cent thinking Sir Keir Starmer will secure an overall majority.
Add those who expect either a minority Labour government or some sort of Labour-led coalition, and fully 86 per cent of respondents expect the Government to lose office when goes to the polls.
That leaves less than 15 per cent expecting any sort of Conservative-led government. Even in September, when things were by no means going well for the Party, that figure stood at 28 per cent.
No wonder that the Prime Minister has tried this week to dampen speculation that he might call an election in the Spring.