From the start, Israel’s reprisals against Hamas to the unspeakable horrors of October 7th have been overshadowed by the potential for regional escalation via Iran and its proxies. Events are pushing that prospect to the fore, with implications stretching far beyond the Middle East.
The IDF’s operation in Gaza continues, with the civilian death toll rising well past 20,000. Commanders of Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Iranian Quds Force have been killed in Lebanon and Syria by Israeli strikes. Since November, Houthi groups have launched 26 attacks on vessels in the Red Sea. Following warnings, the United States and Britain shot down 18 drones and three missiles on Tuesday.
ConservativeHome has described Israel’s campaign in Gaza as like America’s after 9/11: a valid response to terrorist atrocities, but lacking a clear endgame. A simple if vital difference is that Israel’s pursuit of revenge and security is against its neighbours, not a faraway land of which it knows nothing.
Tel Aviv is encircled by what Iran calls its ‘axis of resistance’. Comprising Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, the Houthis in Yemen, and the Revolutionary Guard in Bashar al-Assad’s Syria, it threatens Israel from every side.
Iran is Shia, whilst Hamas is Sunni. Geographically, culturally, and ethnically, Tehran has no natural reason to become involved in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. But it is an Islamic theocracy competing with Saudi Arabia for leadership of the Muslim world. Supporting Hamas helps it win hearts and minds and puts pressure on Riyadh’s rapprochement with Tel Aviv via the Abraham Accords.
Iran’s support for Hezbollah is designed to scare Israel out of an attack on their burgeoning nuclear programme. Hezbollah is the world’s most heavily armed non-state actor. With over 130,000 missiles and over 100,000 fighters, its threat to Tel Aviv is far greater than that of Hamas.
Hezbollah’s forces could easily penetrate Israel’s Iron Dome air defence system. So far over a hundred Hezbollah militants and 15 Israelis have been killed in skirmishes along the border with Lebanon. So far, the nightmare scenario of a two-fronted war has been avoided.
But Israel’s patience is wearing thin. In recent days, Tel Aviv has carried out a series of air strikes on key Hamas leaders and Iranian allies. Saleh al-Arouri, a Hamas commander who acted as a go-between between the group, Iran, and Hezbollah, was killed in Beirut – Israel’s first direct strike on the Lebanese capital since their 2006 war. Hezbollah responded by firing 62 rockets.
A previous strike in Syria had killed Sayyed Razi Mousavi, an Iranian commander. He was a close ally of Qasem Soleimani, the former leader and grand strategist of the Revolutionary Guard killed in early 2020. Wissam Hassam al Tawil, a senior leader of Hezbollah, has now joined them.
What is the rationale behild these strikes? Aside from the obvious military advantage, cynics might suggest Benjamin Netanyahu and his government see courting escalation as a way of remaining in office amidst American calls to wind down their campaign in Gaza. They are a sign that Israel believes Iran does not want a regional war and that they can call Tehran’s bluff.
But that relies on Iran being able to control its proxies. Tehran denies prior knowledge of October 7th. Whilst both benefit from its largesse, Iran has a far greater direct influence over Hezbollah than Hamas. How can the ayatollah stand by as Israel singes his beard?
Answering this is made more pressing by the evolving crisis in the Red Sea. The war in Gaza has prompted the Houthi militants in Yemen to launch attacks on commercial shipping. Through small-scale raids and missile attacks on vessels in the Bab-el-Mandeb strait between the Arabian Peninsula and the Horn of Africa, they have disrupted the Suez Canal on a scale unseen since the Ever Given container ship blockage in 2021.
The Suez Canal handles around 12 per cent of global trade. Most container ships that would pass through are now being re-routed around the Cape of Good Hope, adding 3,000 nautical miles and 10 days to their trips. Fuel and insurance costs are spiking. Freight costs between Europe and Asia have increased by 163 per cent since mid-December. Trade volumes have halved as facility costs soar.
Moreover, the average day usually sees 7 million barrels of oil travel through the Bab al-Mandab strait. These volumes have halved since mid-December. Brent Crude has risen by $4 a barrel. Since Russia invaded Ukraine, Europe has become increasingly dependent on Gulf oil.
With the freedom of the seas at stake, America and her allies have been forced to intervene. The United States killed ten Houthis last week after an attempted hijacking of a Maersk ship. Alongside eleven allies, they warned the Houthis that they “will bear the responsibility of the consequences” of continuing attacks, as Tuesday’s retaliation proved. Further barrages could result in attacks on Houthi bases inside Yemen, aided by Saudi Arabia.
What will Iran’s response be? An aging leadership and discontented populace act as a barrier to escalation towards a regional war. But if Tehran did follow through on previous threats to close the Strait of Hormuz, global oil prices could surge by 20 per cent or more. Europe’s supply of liquid natural gas could be threatened. The West would confront a renewed energy crisis; inflation would spike.
It seems parochial to think about the next election in such a context. But halving inflation has so far been the only one of his five pledges that Rishi Sunak has managed to hit. Number 10 hopes that the Bank of England might soon start reducing interest rates. That would soon become impossible. Voters already battered by rising prices, energy bills, and mortgages would face another cost-of-living crisis.
A half-century ago Edward Heath asked ‘Who governs Britain?’ and was told ‘Not you, mate’. Now another Conservative Prime Minister faces having their premiership brought even lower by a Middle Eastern energy shock. Sunak’s best hope is a swift end to the IDF’s operation in Gaza leading to general de-escalation across the region.
But the fog of war is descending over Israel, Iran, and her proxies.