The Government proposes to completely and permanently outlaw sales of tobacco to anyone born after January 1st 2009. Some will oppose this measure on libertarian grounds. But rather more widespread doubts are likely over the practical impact. Prohibition of alcohol in the United States a century ago offers a textbook warning of what can go wrong. It was very popular when introduced – the US Senate backed it by 65 to 20; I expect the Commons will back a smoking ban by a similarly huge margin. But prohibition proved to be a disaster. Bootlegging flourished with illicitly produced moonshine, of dubious quality. The mafia and other criminal gangs were given a tremendous boost. The courts were overloaded. Corruption was rife. There was a reduction in overall alcohol consumption but alcoholism probably got worse. There was a switch from beer to whiskey – since the latter was more convenient to smuggle. Those drinking illegally were often offered cocaine and opium by the same suppliers.
Of course, what is proposed with smoking is much more gradual. However, the illicit tobacco trade in the UK is already very substantial. Local authority trading standards officers are completely overwhelmed by it. I have argued in the past that they could be more effective. Anti-smoking campaigns in the Public Health budget are ineffective and some of this could be switched to trading standards. Tobacco manufacturers and councils have a shared interest in seeking to thwart the illicit trade in tobacco products and councils could work with them.
Yet even if more effort was made, the constant tax increases keep boosting the incentive for smuggling. MPs can pass whatever laws they like. Enforcing them is another matter. Trading Standards officers will be tasked with investigating retailers with breaches of the age restrictions for selling cigarettes. The numbers involved will rapidly increase each year.
Consider the situation in Enfield. In 2022, trading standards staff seized 28,000 packets of smuggled cigarettes. No doubt a tiny proportion of what was sold in the north London borough. But last year the team of trading standards officers was cut from four to one. MPs in Westminster can impose extra demands on whoever he or she is. But what impact will it have on the high streets of Edmonton?
Another impact of outlawing smoking and thus switching sales to the black market is that small shops will find it harder to survive.
James Lowman, the chief executive of the Association of Convenience Stores says:
“In both the tobacco and vaping markets, current and future regulations must be enforced far better. It is unacceptable that responsible retailers are being undermined by others selling products that are already illegal, often to children. We need to see further funding for Trading Standards to carry out more local enforcement activity against rogue vape sellers.”
Muntazir Dipoti, the President of the Federation of Independent Retailers, agrees:
“While we agree with plans to prevent children and young people being attracted to vapes, this must not be at the expense of adults who have switched to these products in a bid to give up smoking.
“We also want more clarity on what any ‘restrictions’ on disposable vapes would entail. An outright ban on these products would simply create a black market and fuel illicit sales by criminals and unscrupulous traders.
“Vapes help many people give up smoking and are part of life now. I am confident the existing black market will become even more active.
“These illicit products are already on sale at car boot sales, mobile phone shops, cafes and tanning salons, as well as via the internet and by dealers delivering direct to homes.”
These shopkeepers are already struggling with high Business Rates and an epidemic of shoplifting. Now they will be expected to take on the hassle of asking for an ever-growing number of customers to provide ID. Imagine all the resulting ill will. All those who don’t have ID who will storm out in fury. The increase in assaults on staff. How many will close rather than cope with such confrontation each day of the week? Yet more dreary boarded-up empty shops on the high street will follow.
New Zealand has abandoned the idea of a generational smoking ban. Christopher Luxon, the new Prime Minister said:
“We think there are issues around: a 36-year-old can smoke but a 35-year-old can’t. We just think that doesn’t work.”
In South Africa, there was a ban on tobacco sales to all adults as part of the covid lockdown restrictions in 2020. A study found:
“Despite the ban, the sale of cigarettes did not cease; rather, it caused major disruption to the cigarette market. The ban inadvertently benefited manufacturers who were previously disproportionately involved in illicit activities; these manufacturers increased their market share even after the ban was lifted. The ban may have further entrenched South Africa’s already large illicit market.”
The ban was lifted after five months.
There was an earlier experiment of a smoking ban in Bhutan in south Asia:
“The country of about 750,000 had banned the sale, manufacture and distribution of tobacco in 2010 but allowed smokers to import controlled amounts of tobacco products after paying hefty duties and taxes – sparking a thriving black market for cigarettes smuggled over the border from India.”
According to Christopher Snowden of the Institute of Economic Affairs:
“Fifteen years after the ban took effect, 22 per cent of Bhutanese 13–15-year-olds were tobacco users, and 17 per cent were smokers. Among this age group, the World Health Organization reports that ‘prevalence of current cigarette smoking increased continuously from 2009 to 2019.’ “
I doubt many MPs will be unduly worried by all these practical concerns. They will pretend the ban will work. Passing the law is easy and will allow them to parade their moral credentials. It is the councils that will be left with the unrealistic task of implementation. The police will struggle with a boost to criminal gangs as the law is undermined. The shopkeepers groan at yet a further imposition.
Then I suppose after a decade or so it will be ditched.