Our last two surveys have seen record shares of our panel expecting a Labour majority after the next election. This month is no different.
65 per cent believe we are on track for a Labour majority. Add on the shares also predicting a Labour-led coalition or a minority Labour government, and that rises to 87 per cent, a point higher than last month.
As such, only 13 per cent of the activists we asked expected any sort of Conservative-led government. In February 2021, the figures were reversed: 87 per cent of panel respondents were expecting some form of Conservative-led government.
How times change. It has been a busy three years. As Lord Salisbury put it, “Whatever happens will be for the worse, and therefore it is in our interest that as little should happen as possible”.