Dr Bob Seely is chair of the APPG on Russia, and is MP for the Isle of Wight.
The slow torture and murder of Alexei Navalny was a despicable political assassination. First and foremost, it is a personally tragedy for his wife and two children. Over and above that, it is terrible for Russia, and very serious for Europe and Ukraine.
There are some things his death changes, and somethings it doesn’t.
Whilst we may find the killing in prison of Alexi Navalny shocking, in Russia this was not unexpected. Navalny’s own murder was the outcome of a process which – whilst no means inevitable – was always probable. The Russian state had tried to kill him by poison several years ago in the Siberian city of Tomsk. He recovered in Germany.
Navalny went back knowing he was facing a show trial, prison, and possibly death. His courage in the face of this was remarkable.
His death will make it easier to wind up his organisation, despite campaigners vowing to continue his work. Navalny was dangerous not only because he was charismatic and funny, and exposed corruption that made even police arresting him think, but because he had a national organisation, albeit one under constant attack.
These dark days for Russian democratic protestors are likely to get darker. Vladimir Putin’s opponents are either dead (like Boris Nemtsov, the former governor of Nizhny Novgorod, and now Navalny), in prison (like Vladmir Kara-Murza), in exile (like Mikhail Khodokovsky), or cowed in Russia.
The process of turning the Russian state back to an oppressive, quasi-totalitarian regime has been ongoing since the early 2000s, when the Russian Security Agency, the FSB, began to subtly and then overtly control the media, and the state took over the nation’s major natural resource firms.
New laws passed since the start of the current phase of the Russo-Ukraine war has allowed the Russian state to target anyone who questions the conflict. However, the Russian leader is not killing lots of people. He is killing the people he needs to kill to keep others quiet. This is not a bloodbath, as under the Stalinist regime; Putin’s practises targeted murder.
Generalised repression continues, but it is low-key. A recent New York Times investigation found that 6,500 have been fined or imprisoned for anti-war protests, but most of those attract little attention. Jobs are lost and life becomes more difficult for those affected. The regime wears you down, makes your life uncomfortable and then actively difficult. Only after that does it make it hell.
The result is that people avoid politics. Threat of violence is enough to keep most quiet most of the time. Propaganda makes them believe it is for the best.
Indeed, twenty years of that propaganda means that only a few will openly mourn Navalny. Protests will be few and far between and stamped on quickly by police. Some will say he brought it on himself, whilst others will believe what they are told to believe by the state; namely that Navalny and others like him were ‘fifth columnists’, the enemies within.
TRussia is better off without them, Russians will be led to believe, and that Russia is at war with NATO; this is not the time to oppose the Kremlin. The regime is criminal and evil, but it is still shrewd.
he most well-known living Russian political prisoner now is Vladimir Kara-Murza. His life is in danger: the Military Intelligence unit that poisoned that poisoned Navalny also poisoned him.
Kara-Murza is a British citizen, as well as Russian. I have raised on several occasions both his and Navalny’s case with the Foreign Office, to ask them if they would work with other nations to discuss prisoner swaps (Russia has some of its spies sitting in Western jails).
The answer is that that the UK does not negotiate, as this would make state-hostage taking more likely. Whilst I accept this argument, it comes at a price. The last time I spoke with Kara-Murza wife, she wanted her husband out. If not, he may die. His body has also been weakened by poisoning.
I am not saying there are easy answers, but we have to do our best.
Navalny’s death signals that Putin no longer cares what the collective West thinks. He is set on a course of confrontation. There is a ruthlessness in his actions, the consequences of which we have not yet grasped.
This has important implications for Ukraine.
We cannot stop Putin killing his opponents in Russia, but we can thwart his invasion. Yet the collective power of Europe and the US is failing to supply Kyiv with the weapons to do so. Russia is now on war footing. In drones and artillery, it is catching up and is threatening to overwhelm Ukraine; the Ukrainian army is beginning to retreat.
If Ukraine falls, a series of profound shocks will follow: death on a greater scale, mass flows refugees, widespread guerrilla warfare and human rights abuses in the occupied territory, and the creation of an unstable, fascistic, pro-Russian puppet state. China will be emboldened, as will Iran and North Korea.
Given Putin’s state of mind, it is probable that a coup will be instigated in Moldova, and he will then turn his attention to destabilise Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, using operatives within Russian communities as a pretext for a series of options – one of which will be to threaten war unless NATO withdraws its troops and tanks, leaving those states open to an attack which will almost certainly follow.
Navalny’s death is an awful event in itself. But it is for those reasons also a terrible sign for us.
There are two political traditions in Russia: Westernisers and Slavophiles. Those who wanted to emulate the West, and those who oppose it. Navalny represented the Westernising tradition. It didn’t make him any less Russian than Putin, but he wanted a different direction for the country. He opposed the Ukrainian war.
Putin represents a virulent, ugly strain of Slavophilia, mixed with a Soviet hatred of NATO. He has been at war with the West, inside Russia and out, for two decades. In killing Navalny, he has destroyed the Westernisers’ figurehead. It is the end of a chapter in Russia history.
Putin murdered Navalny. He needs to be stopped where we can we stop him: in Ukraine.
Dr Bob Seely is chair of the APPG on Russia, and is MP for the Isle of Wight.
The slow torture and murder of Alexei Navalny was a despicable political assassination. First and foremost, it is a personally tragedy for his wife and two children. Over and above that, it is terrible for Russia, and very serious for Europe and Ukraine.
There are some things his death changes, and somethings it doesn’t.
Whilst we may find the killing in prison of Alexi Navalny shocking, in Russia this was not unexpected. Navalny’s own murder was the outcome of a process which – whilst no means inevitable – was always probable. The Russian state had tried to kill him by poison several years ago in the Siberian city of Tomsk. He recovered in Germany.
Navalny went back knowing he was facing a show trial, prison, and possibly death. His courage in the face of this was remarkable.
His death will make it easier to wind up his organisation, despite campaigners vowing to continue his work. Navalny was dangerous not only because he was charismatic and funny, and exposed corruption that made even police arresting him think, but because he had a national organisation, albeit one under constant attack.
These dark days for Russian democratic protestors are likely to get darker. Vladimir Putin’s opponents are either dead (like Boris Nemtsov, the former governor of Nizhny Novgorod, and now Navalny), in prison (like Vladmir Kara-Murza), in exile (like Mikhail Khodokovsky), or cowed in Russia.
The process of turning the Russian state back to an oppressive, quasi-totalitarian regime has been ongoing since the early 2000s, when the Russian Security Agency, the FSB, began to subtly and then overtly control the media, and the state took over the nation’s major natural resource firms.
New laws passed since the start of the current phase of the Russo-Ukraine war has allowed the Russian state to target anyone who questions the conflict. However, the Russian leader is not killing lots of people. He is killing the people he needs to kill to keep others quiet. This is not a bloodbath, as under the Stalinist regime; Putin’s practises targeted murder.
Generalised repression continues, but it is low-key. A recent New York Times investigation found that 6,500 have been fined or imprisoned for anti-war protests, but most of those attract little attention. Jobs are lost and life becomes more difficult for those affected. The regime wears you down, makes your life uncomfortable and then actively difficult. Only after that does it make it hell.
The result is that people avoid politics. Threat of violence is enough to keep most quiet most of the time. Propaganda makes them believe it is for the best.
Indeed, twenty years of that propaganda means that only a few will openly mourn Navalny. Protests will be few and far between and stamped on quickly by police. Some will say he brought it on himself, whilst others will believe what they are told to believe by the state; namely that Navalny and others like him were ‘fifth columnists’, the enemies within.
TRussia is better off without them, Russians will be led to believe, and that Russia is at war with NATO; this is not the time to oppose the Kremlin. The regime is criminal and evil, but it is still shrewd.
he most well-known living Russian political prisoner now is Vladimir Kara-Murza. His life is in danger: the Military Intelligence unit that poisoned that poisoned Navalny also poisoned him.
Kara-Murza is a British citizen, as well as Russian. I have raised on several occasions both his and Navalny’s case with the Foreign Office, to ask them if they would work with other nations to discuss prisoner swaps (Russia has some of its spies sitting in Western jails).
The answer is that that the UK does not negotiate, as this would make state-hostage taking more likely. Whilst I accept this argument, it comes at a price. The last time I spoke with Kara-Murza wife, she wanted her husband out. If not, he may die. His body has also been weakened by poisoning.
I am not saying there are easy answers, but we have to do our best.
Navalny’s death signals that Putin no longer cares what the collective West thinks. He is set on a course of confrontation. There is a ruthlessness in his actions, the consequences of which we have not yet grasped.
This has important implications for Ukraine.
We cannot stop Putin killing his opponents in Russia, but we can thwart his invasion. Yet the collective power of Europe and the US is failing to supply Kyiv with the weapons to do so. Russia is now on war footing. In drones and artillery, it is catching up and is threatening to overwhelm Ukraine; the Ukrainian army is beginning to retreat.
If Ukraine falls, a series of profound shocks will follow: death on a greater scale, mass flows refugees, widespread guerrilla warfare and human rights abuses in the occupied territory, and the creation of an unstable, fascistic, pro-Russian puppet state. China will be emboldened, as will Iran and North Korea.
Given Putin’s state of mind, it is probable that a coup will be instigated in Moldova, and he will then turn his attention to destabilise Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, using operatives within Russian communities as a pretext for a series of options – one of which will be to threaten war unless NATO withdraws its troops and tanks, leaving those states open to an attack which will almost certainly follow.
Navalny’s death is an awful event in itself. But it is for those reasons also a terrible sign for us.
There are two political traditions in Russia: Westernisers and Slavophiles. Those who wanted to emulate the West, and those who oppose it. Navalny represented the Westernising tradition. It didn’t make him any less Russian than Putin, but he wanted a different direction for the country. He opposed the Ukrainian war.
Putin represents a virulent, ugly strain of Slavophilia, mixed with a Soviet hatred of NATO. He has been at war with the West, inside Russia and out, for two decades. In killing Navalny, he has destroyed the Westernisers’ figurehead. It is the end of a chapter in Russia history.
Putin murdered Navalny. He needs to be stopped where we can we stop him: in Ukraine.