This morning the i brought news that CCHQ is sticking to an ‘80:20’ strategy for the next election: focusing resources on the 80 most marginal seats that the Conservatives currently hold alongside the top 20 it believes it can take from Labour, the SNP, and the Liberal Democrats. Since retaining a majority would require winning at least four-tenths of those, it appears, on paper, to be a reasonable approach.
But we live in unreasonable times. As I recently highlighted, the party looks to be heading for its worst-ever defeat. If the polls are to be believed, it could be the worst performance for a government since Labour were reduced to 52 seats in 1931. Even if a ‘Canada 93’ outcome is avoided, we will suffer heavier losses than at any point since before universal suffrage. Aping 1997 would be a good result.
Aiming to defend only the 80 most marginal constituencies – and even snaffling a few from the Opposition – thus requires an optimistic reading of the polls. Recent evidence suggests CCHQ struggles to be wholly aware of the wider world. Isaac Levido is a talented man. But what figures can he be cooking up for Number 10 and Richard Holden to think the situation is even mildly hopeful?
What explains the ’80:20’ approach? It was the brainchild of Oliver Dowden when he was Party Chairman. Since the Deputy Prime Minister resigned from his former role, he has had five successors – a perfect encapsulation of the nervous breakdown with which our party has been suffering these last two years. Each have stuck to ’80:20′. Rishi Sunak confirmed his fidelity to it soon after becoming leader.
In early 2022, ’80:20′ was a reasonable estimation for what might be hoped for from a good general election result. Despite the travails of Partygate, a Redfield and Wilton poll the day after the strategy was first briefed had the Tories ‘only’ 9 points behind Labour. A poll from the same company, released two days ago, had us 24 points behind. Somewhere in Henley, an aspring Cincinnatus chuckles.
But also cue, one would suspect, a little introspection from CCHQ. The strategy could be defended when the Tories still had a decent chance of forming the next government. But it doesn’t when they are confronting total wipeout. It makes the Charge of the Light Brigade look like a strategic triumph in terms of the productive allocation of manpower and resources. Can internal polling really be that positive?
The truth is that admitting reality would be disastrous for Sunak and Holden. Number 10 is hobbled by backbenchers either spoiling to remove the PM or quitting to get to the front of the lobbying queue. Admitting to MPs in seats with majorities under 15,000 that they better start looking for a new job might spark a leadership challenge, trigger a mass exodus, and make life even more difficult for a Downing Street already out of ideas.
Chucking some fake newspapers and the odd minister in the direction of marginals is much easier than confronting the psychological shock of preparing for defeat. The current situation is lamentable but manageable. Holden telling the bulk of MPs and candidates that CCHQ must give up on them to protect seats hitherto considered safe would see Graham Brady’s postbag fill up very quickly
Resources can only be spread so thinly. Donations would dry up if CCHQ admitted it was fighting to keep the party a viable political entity. Perhaps campaigners don’t even wish to admit the reality to themselves. But the reckoning can only be put off so long. If only out of their loyalty to their party, the Prime Minister and Party Chairman should not put a quiet life today ahead of disaster tomorrow.