Matt Goodwin is an academic. He shares his research at mattgoodwin.org.
The rise of Reform UK, now averaging 12 per cent in the polls, poses a serious threat to Rishi Sunak and the Conservatives. We already know that Reform is attracting almost one in three of the people who voted Tory at the last general election, in 2019. It is also making deep inroads among many other groups of voters.
Last week, national polling suggested that Reform is already ahead of the Conservatives among the working-class, northerners, Brexit voters, and men. Even without Nigel Farage as leader, in other words, it is attracting a significant and durable electorate.
But many questions remain unanswered. Who plans to vote for Reform, and why? What are their political priorities? Where do they stand on cultural issues, like immigration, as well as economic issues, like globalisation, taxation, and business?
To answer these questions, my firm People Polling Limited conducted the first and largest survey of Reform voters to date. Working with the Legatum Institute, we surveyed more than 3,400 people planning to vote Reform at the 2024 general election.
What did we find?
Firstly, their social backgrounds look a lot like those of UKIP and Brexit Party voters. They tend to be middle-aged or elderly, with a slight bias toward men. They tend to live outside London and Scotland and were overwhelmingly supportive of the Conservatives in 2019. Typically, they voted for Brexit in 2016.
Richard Ticeis attracting voters from across society. While more than one-third of the Reform voters in our sample describe themselves as upper or middle-class, working in professional-managerial jobs, 22 per cent put themselves in supervisory, clerical, and junior managerial or administrative jobs, and a larger 42 per cent identify as working-class. Much like UKIP, there is a strong working-class dimension to the party’s support.
Turning to their political backgrounds, more than two-thirds of Reform supporters voted for the Tories at the last general election, while only 4 per cent voted for Labour. This underlines not only the serious threat Reform pose to the Tories but also how the party’s rise has been made possible by the failure of the Conservatives to maintain the post-Brexit realignment.
What do they think? Overwhelmingly, Reform voters are concerned about one specific issue: immigration. When asked to choose the most important issues that will determine how they vote at the looming general election, they say: (1) stop the small boats; (2) deal with the level of immigration in Britain; (3) the economy/cost of living crisis; and (4) fixing the NHS/healthcare. Immigration is their overriding concern.
But it is not the only one. Reform voters are also united by a profound and more diffuse sense of pessimism about the state of Britain. They appear convinced the future will be worse than the present and that the present is already worse than the past. Overall, 85 per cent of Reform voters think life in Britain today is worse than it was thirty years ago, which they often associate with immigration.
They are also convinced that Net Zero policies and globalisation are damaging the nation, with seven in ten saying Net Zero policies have ‘made life worse’ in the country. Six in ten hold the same view about globalisation. It is worth pointing out that just 6 per cent of Reform voters think globalisation makes British life better.
Contrary to many popular portrayals of Reform voters, these are people who also often feel that Britain’s political and economic leaders are more interested in prioritising global corporations over the national community and economy. Also significant, for example, is the finding that only 13 per cent think big business has made life better in Britain while almost half our sample, 48 per cent, think big business has made life worse.
When asked about their economic views, it’s also telling that most Reform voters say they want to live in an economy which taxes goods and services from the rest of the world to prioritise British alternatives, even if that makes things more expensive for British people, rather than living in an economy which allows goods and services to come to Britain from all over the world to make things as cheap as possible, even if that undermines British alternatives. They want to prioritise British companies and British people over global free trade.
On tax and spend, they also hold somewhat unexpected views. When asked whether Britain should reduce taxes and spend less on public services, should raise taxes so it can spend more on public services, or keep taxes and spending about the same, Reform voters split into three groups.
A plurality, 39 per cent, want to keep taxes and spending at about the same as they are now; 25 per cent want to reduce taxes and spending; and 24 per cent want to increase taxes and spending. The remainder don’t know. In other words, only a minority of Reform voters endorse the demands among Reform party elites for slashing taxes.
In summary, Reform is drawing much of its support from people sharing a distinctive social and attitudinal profile. More than anything, they feel very concerned about the scale, speed, and impact of both illegal and legal immigration. They are deeply pessimistic about how it’s changing Britain, in their eyes for the worse.
They believe life in Britain is getting worse, not better, and associate this with the policy of mass immigration. Their overwhelming focus on levels of immigration, not just the small boats entering Britain illegally, suggests Rishi Sunak will struggle to win them back by talking only about illegal migration and the Rwanda deal. Reform voters want to see immigration in all its forms reduced, which means the Conservatives will need to usher in sweeping reforms if they are to have even a chance of winning these voters back.
While their concerns about immigration dominate, Reform voters are also very pessimistic about the negative impact of globalisation, Net Zero, and big business. They feel our politics and national conversation are shaped too heavily around the socially liberal if not radically ‘woke’ progressive values, beliefs, and priorities that unite the ruling class.
In sharp contrast, Reform voters firmly oppose mass immigration, Net Zero, the breakdown of Britain’s borders, and an economy which puts global firms and big business ahead of British firms and British workers. They are turning to this new party to express their concerns.
These voters abandoned the Tories and turned to Reform because they are looking for a party that represents views that are being downplayed if not ignored by the elite —the desire for lower and controlled immigration, the desire for a self-governing nation with strong and secure borders, and the desire for an economy which prioritises British workers and British companies over global firms that show little if any interest in the national community.
Unless these views are better articulated and represented by the Tories, there is absolutely no doubt Reform will remain the main beneficiary in the polls, morphing from an inconvenience on right-wing flank into a much bigger rebellion against the established parties and elite consensus.