Chris Hopkins is the Political Research Director at Savanta.
The West Midlands Mayoralty is going to be difficult to call, for a number of reasons.
Firstly, and like many local or regional elections, it’s going to have a low turnout. Last time in 2021 (when the Conservatives were riding high on Boris Johnson’s ‘post vaccine bounce’) there was just a 31 per cent turnout. It could well be even lower on 2 May, partially as a consequence of increased cynicism around and distrust of politics, but also because of party expectations.
Mobilising the Conservative vote will be challenging for incumbent councillors and fresh candidates up and down the country, given the current state of the party. Throw in the challenge of some (but not all) parts of the West Midlands Combined Authority having other elections on 2 May, turnout will be incredibly challenging to model for this election.
Another reason why this is going to be a tricky election to predict is the role of Reform UK, alongside other insurgent candidates. Much has been written about Reform UK, including by me; I’m personally and publicly skeptical about them as a national electoral force. Savanta has tended to show smaller Reform numbers than other polling companies, and to be perfectly honest I’m not unhappy about it.
There are some reasons why this might be in national polling – as a rule at Savanta we have parties who polled below 5 per cent at last national election as a sub-prompt, under the ‘other parties’ option. This includes Reform UK, and is meant to replicate what happens at a general election when voters tend to coalesce around bigger parties.
No matter the reason why, I don’t believe being cautious about Reform UK is an example of bad judgement. And I’m very happy to be proven wrong and readjust my expectations, if they do perform well. But with Reform candidates standing in just 14 per cent of councillor seats on 2 May, it may well be hard to do so.
The Blackpool South By-Election, which should be very favourable to them, will probably be the best place to make this call. That being said, Reform UK can still be a huge factor in reams of elections, including in the West Midlands Mayoral Election. Their 6 per ce t in our research would be enough to be the difference between Richard Parker and Andy Street, as has been pointed out repeatedly on social media by Conservative activists.
Finally, this is an odd election because the incumbent Conservative Mayor is doing everything humanly possible to pretend that he is an independent. Look at Street’s literature and social media activity, and he has taken a view on what he needs to do to win – minimise the contagion of the Conservative brand at all costs.
I broadly think he’s right to do so. Of his voters, nearly six in ten (57 per cent) say they prefer him to the Conservatives. For comparison, only 11 per cent of Richard Parker’s voters say they prefer him to Labour. It’s clear that if Street does win his re-election, it will be despite his association with the Conservatives and Rishi Sunak, rather than because of it.
In some respects, it’s remarkable the election is as close as our research suggests it could be; with Street on 38 per cent, behind Parker by 3-points, who is on 41 per cent. In the context of a regional swing in the West Midlands against the Conservatives of about 15 points since 2019, that’s miraculous.
Why is this? It’s everything to do with Street’s appeal, local popularity, and record as West Midlands Mayor.
He has the highest net favourability (+20) of everyone we polled in this research, better than Keir Starmer (+3), Richard Parker (+14 but with a huge amount of Don’t Knows) and Rishi Sunak (-27). Street is more popular in the West Midlands than Sadiq Khan (+2) is in London, who is likely to romp home in his re-election campaign.
But he’s not just popular; the people of the West Midlands also think that Street has done a good job, too. Two in five (41 per cent) say they’re satisfied with his performance as Mayor, and only 18 per cent say they’re not. Again, the comparison with Khan is entirely favourable to Street – despite his high chance of re-election, just 33 per cent are satisfied with Khan’s performance versus 40 per cent who aren’t.
Street’s campaign isn’t just important to the people of the West Midlands, but has taken on national significance as well. It’s broadly believed Sunak and the Conservatives are going to have a bad night on 2 May. How bad differs depending on who you’re talking to, but my view is that of the 900-odd seats they’re defending, current polling would imply they could lose around half.
MP and activist responses to those results are likely to hinge on what happens in both the West Midlands and Tees Valley. If the Conservatives lose one or both of them, the backbench vultures will likely begin to circle.
Our polling (which had to be updated after we made a small but significant error), implies West Midlands will be a close one. Other pollsters for Tees Valley also say it is neck and neck between Houchen and the Labour candidate – and Houchen is defending a majority far more sizable than Andy Street.
Which brings me back to my original point, this election – for all the reasons above – is going to likely be a difficult one to predict accurately.
Chris Hopkins is the Political Research Director at Savanta.
The West Midlands Mayoralty is going to be difficult to call, for a number of reasons.
Firstly, and like many local or regional elections, it’s going to have a low turnout. Last time in 2021 (when the Conservatives were riding high on Boris Johnson’s ‘post vaccine bounce’) there was just a 31 per cent turnout. It could well be even lower on 2 May, partially as a consequence of increased cynicism around and distrust of politics, but also because of party expectations.
Mobilising the Conservative vote will be challenging for incumbent councillors and fresh candidates up and down the country, given the current state of the party. Throw in the challenge of some (but not all) parts of the West Midlands Combined Authority having other elections on 2 May, turnout will be incredibly challenging to model for this election.
Another reason why this is going to be a tricky election to predict is the role of Reform UK, alongside other insurgent candidates. Much has been written about Reform UK, including by me; I’m personally and publicly skeptical about them as a national electoral force. Savanta has tended to show smaller Reform numbers than other polling companies, and to be perfectly honest I’m not unhappy about it.
There are some reasons why this might be in national polling – as a rule at Savanta we have parties who polled below 5 per cent at last national election as a sub-prompt, under the ‘other parties’ option. This includes Reform UK, and is meant to replicate what happens at a general election when voters tend to coalesce around bigger parties.
No matter the reason why, I don’t believe being cautious about Reform UK is an example of bad judgement. And I’m very happy to be proven wrong and readjust my expectations, if they do perform well. But with Reform candidates standing in just 14 per cent of councillor seats on 2 May, it may well be hard to do so.
The Blackpool South By-Election, which should be very favourable to them, will probably be the best place to make this call. That being said, Reform UK can still be a huge factor in reams of elections, including in the West Midlands Mayoral Election. Their 6 per ce t in our research would be enough to be the difference between Richard Parker and Andy Street, as has been pointed out repeatedly on social media by Conservative activists.
Finally, this is an odd election because the incumbent Conservative Mayor is doing everything humanly possible to pretend that he is an independent. Look at Street’s literature and social media activity, and he has taken a view on what he needs to do to win – minimise the contagion of the Conservative brand at all costs.
I broadly think he’s right to do so. Of his voters, nearly six in ten (57 per cent) say they prefer him to the Conservatives. For comparison, only 11 per cent of Richard Parker’s voters say they prefer him to Labour. It’s clear that if Street does win his re-election, it will be despite his association with the Conservatives and Rishi Sunak, rather than because of it.
In some respects, it’s remarkable the election is as close as our research suggests it could be; with Street on 38 per cent, behind Parker by 3-points, who is on 41 per cent. In the context of a regional swing in the West Midlands against the Conservatives of about 15 points since 2019, that’s miraculous.
Why is this? It’s everything to do with Street’s appeal, local popularity, and record as West Midlands Mayor.
He has the highest net favourability (+20) of everyone we polled in this research, better than Keir Starmer (+3), Richard Parker (+14 but with a huge amount of Don’t Knows) and Rishi Sunak (-27). Street is more popular in the West Midlands than Sadiq Khan (+2) is in London, who is likely to romp home in his re-election campaign.
But he’s not just popular; the people of the West Midlands also think that Street has done a good job, too. Two in five (41 per cent) say they’re satisfied with his performance as Mayor, and only 18 per cent say they’re not. Again, the comparison with Khan is entirely favourable to Street – despite his high chance of re-election, just 33 per cent are satisfied with Khan’s performance versus 40 per cent who aren’t.
Street’s campaign isn’t just important to the people of the West Midlands, but has taken on national significance as well. It’s broadly believed Sunak and the Conservatives are going to have a bad night on 2 May. How bad differs depending on who you’re talking to, but my view is that of the 900-odd seats they’re defending, current polling would imply they could lose around half.
MP and activist responses to those results are likely to hinge on what happens in both the West Midlands and Tees Valley. If the Conservatives lose one or both of them, the backbench vultures will likely begin to circle.
Our polling (which had to be updated after we made a small but significant error), implies West Midlands will be a close one. Other pollsters for Tees Valley also say it is neck and neck between Houchen and the Labour candidate – and Houchen is defending a majority far more sizable than Andy Street.
Which brings me back to my original point, this election – for all the reasons above – is going to likely be a difficult one to predict accurately.