James Johnson is co-founder of JL Partners. He was the Senior Opinion Research and Strategy Adviser to Theresa May as Prime Minister, 2016-2019.
America is set for a truly uncanny repeat of history this year. In 1968, mass youth protests hit the Chicago-based Democratic National Convention, anointing an unpopular presidential nominee facing an international conflict.
This year the Democrats head to Chicago again, but this time to appoint Joe Biden rather than Hubert Humphrey. The international conflict – which will likely precipitate protests – is not Vietnam but Gaza.
It is unclear whether we will be headed for another summer of rage writ large. With universities heading home, supporters will be more diffuse. Some universities, like Columbia – which saw the lion’s share of violence last week – have cancelled their commencement ceremonies as a precaution.
But clearly the potential for significant disruption remains if the last few weeks are anything to go by, with almost 2,500 students in America arrested – and many more suspended – during university protests, occupations, and sit-ins. Chicago will be a hotbed of their focus, especially if the war is still raging.
The wider public are supportive of tough action to shut down disruption caused by campus protests. Three in four Americans, according to a recent Morning Consult survey, said that universities and colleges should “ask the police to protect campuses from violence”. Almost half were happy for administrators to shut down demonstrations altogether, with only 30 per cent opposed.
Traditionally liberal cities have toughened up on violence more broadly: a recent poll of New York City by the Manhattan Institute found a population eager for tougher measures on crime, violence, and disruption.
Funnily enough, students themselves are quite keen not to have their studies and graduations derailed: almost seven in ten college students across America say occupying campus buildings is unacceptable.
These numbers need a caveat in that most protests have been at elite institutions rather than the vast majority of universities nationwide, but even here a wider truth applies. The common room or student union – usually ran by people who care more about politics than enjoying their time at university – rarely sums up the views of the wider student body.
Feel for the student – of which there are thousands – who graduated from high school on Zoom during Covid-19, joined online university classes later in 2020, and four years later are graduating from university remotely. The latter is happening because some universities are cancelling in-person classes for the rest of the semester.
So who are the protestors? A poll published last week by JL Partners and the podcast Breaking Points can help shine some light. They are overwhelmingly 18-24 years old, white, more affluent, and are more likely to be female than male. They are also hugely reliant on social media for how they see the world.
Six in ten 18-29 year old Americans get most of their news from social media. Not just their news in general, but most of their news. That compares to one in four of the population as a whole.
And this is overwhelmingly from one platform. Ask those 18-29 year olds where they primarily get their news and the answer is resoundingly TikTok, compared to CNN for 30-49 year olds and Fox for over-50s.
I sat with a protestor in Philadelphia a few weeks ago and I asked her this question. She showed me her TikTok feed: it was video after video of Gaza bombing, Gaza civilians, clips from Al Jazeera, calls to action, and pro-Palestinian music videos. TikTok did not breed her views, but it must help perpetuate them: the algorithm had got to know her and was delivering a stream of content on the war.
The average person who consumes most of their news from these platforms is in a radically different place from the average American on the issue of Gaza:
There are areas of overlap: both the wider public and those who get most of their news from social media think there should be ceasefire in Gaza, think the US should push for a truce, and think Joe Biden has not handled the conflict well. They tend to oppose America sending more funds to Israel.
But the Israel/Palestine issue is not the only way that TikTok has driven younger people away from their elders. The Wall Street Journal this week reported on how the app is “creating a disconnect between how well-off young adults actually are and how they think they’re doing.” In the words of one user interviewed by the Journal, when surrounded by trendy items and new fads, “it doesn’t feel like the norm is your normal”.
The result is anxiety, status concern, and – despite being much more affluent than the average American, and certainly Brits of an equivalent age – a sense of relative economic dissatisfaction. Mix that in with global angst, and this is an unhappy and angry group.
Two weeks ago, Biden signed a bill banning the app from the US market if they do not make a sale within nine months. This will not change the picture: something else will take TikTok’s place. But it is fair to say that usage of the app is one of the larger drivers of opinion in America today.
Few Americans support Hamas. Few college students support Hamas. But for the small group that do, who are ready to cause disruption and violence in Chicago this summer, you can count on one thing: their TikTok accounts will be close to hand.