Thomas Nurcombe is a researcher at Bright Blue.
“England made many mistakes; she is paying heavily for them now.” These are the words of John F. Kennedy in Why England Slept, his undergraduate thesis, outlining the failure of British politicians in the 1930s to rearm and prepare the country for conflict with Nazi Germany. Despite being nearly 85 years old, his observations are still applicable. We have again been asleep in the face of authoritarian threats.
The Conservative leadership, seemingly lacking fresh ideas for the upcoming general election, is making defence the core of its electoral campaign. Grant Shapps recently claimed that Labour “presents a danger” to the UK due to its failure to commit completely to the 2.5 per cent of GDP defence spending target by 2030.
However, this strategy may prove to be misguided. The Party’s failure to ensure a suitable supply of the ‘three Ms’ – money, material, and men – presents an opportunity for Labour to highlight the shortcomings. Instead of resting on their laurels and assuming that the public will still see them as the ‘party of defence,’ the Conservatives should be proposing bold new policies to improve their record.
The reality is that the UK’s armed forces have been underfunded for too long and our defence is now facing a severe deficit. According to the National Audit Office, there is a £16.9 billion funding gap between the Ministry of Defence’s budget and the cost of required equipment and capabilities.
As a result, the armed forces are struggling to obtain adequate supplies. Currently, only two out of the 46 major equipment programmes – ranging from artillery shells to the country’s nuclear deterrent – are expected to be delivered on time. In particular, projects involving nuclear submarines, missiles, and military communications have been deemed unachievable. The UK is clearly not ready for conflict. If called upon to fight, we would run out of ammunition within weeks.
But it is not just in money and material that Britain has suffered. In 2016, the strength of the UK’s forces personnel stood at 196,840, of which regular personnel made up 78 per cent. However, by the start of this year, the number of UK forces was around 15,000 lower, with some 7,000 leaving service between January 2023 and January 2024 alone.
This situation is not set to improve anytime soon. Of the 137,000 people who applied to join the military in 2023, 74,000 gave up because it took too long. For the Army alone over 70 per cent dropped out of the process.
Long delays are particularly harming reserve applications. Britain now has a similar number of reserves to Canada – a country with over 25 million fewer people. Strikingly, the US has double the amount of reserve personnel than the UK does as a proportion of the population.
Given the issues, it is hardly surprising that the Conservatives are not trusted more than Labour when it comes to defence policy, with Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer polling at 30 per cent regarding the public’s trust in their handling of defence. In the most uncertain and dangerous geopolitical situation since the Cuban Missile Crisis – when the author of Why England Slept was America’s President – Labour has a clear shot of presenting the Tories as having failed to protect the nation.
However, the Prime Minister can offer bold and ambitious plans to convince the public that they have woken up. First, while increasing the defence budget to 2.5 per cent of GDP is a start, it is clear that this needs to go further. Indeed, the current increase may only work out to an extra £20 billion.
The Prime Minister should set out in his manifesto to increase defence spending to 3 per cent as soon as possible after the election. After all, Poland spent 4 per cent of its GDP on defence in 2023. This is not only necessary but would be a popular move. Three-quarters of Conservative members want higher defence spending over tax cuts.
Second, urgent policies are needed to boost reserve personnel numbers, which provide useful units at a fifth of the cost of regulars. This will come if we speed up the recruitment process, but also critical is recruiting student reservists. Recently, the Chief of General Staff suggested a month’s paid boot camp for gap-year students as a pathway to boost reservist numbers.
This should be extended to all university students to undertake in their summers. For students, the cash incentive will go a long way and can potentially facilitate a culture of service in our youth: especially when 64 per cent are skipping meals to save money and many struggle with loneliness and boredom outside of term time.
The Conservatives can no longer take defence for granted. As Kennedy wrote, “it takes shocks – hard shocks – to change a nation’s psychology.” The shock of impending electoral defeat ought to change the Conservative Party’s psychology.
Thomas Nurcombe is a researcher at Bright Blue.
“England made many mistakes; she is paying heavily for them now.” These are the words of John F. Kennedy in Why England Slept, his undergraduate thesis, outlining the failure of British politicians in the 1930s to rearm and prepare the country for conflict with Nazi Germany. Despite being nearly 85 years old, his observations are still applicable. We have again been asleep in the face of authoritarian threats.
The Conservative leadership, seemingly lacking fresh ideas for the upcoming general election, is making defence the core of its electoral campaign. Grant Shapps recently claimed that Labour “presents a danger” to the UK due to its failure to commit completely to the 2.5 per cent of GDP defence spending target by 2030.
However, this strategy may prove to be misguided. The Party’s failure to ensure a suitable supply of the ‘three Ms’ – money, material, and men – presents an opportunity for Labour to highlight the shortcomings. Instead of resting on their laurels and assuming that the public will still see them as the ‘party of defence,’ the Conservatives should be proposing bold new policies to improve their record.
The reality is that the UK’s armed forces have been underfunded for too long and our defence is now facing a severe deficit. According to the National Audit Office, there is a £16.9 billion funding gap between the Ministry of Defence’s budget and the cost of required equipment and capabilities.
As a result, the armed forces are struggling to obtain adequate supplies. Currently, only two out of the 46 major equipment programmes – ranging from artillery shells to the country’s nuclear deterrent – are expected to be delivered on time. In particular, projects involving nuclear submarines, missiles, and military communications have been deemed unachievable. The UK is clearly not ready for conflict. If called upon to fight, we would run out of ammunition within weeks.
But it is not just in money and material that Britain has suffered. In 2016, the strength of the UK’s forces personnel stood at 196,840, of which regular personnel made up 78 per cent. However, by the start of this year, the number of UK forces was around 15,000 lower, with some 7,000 leaving service between January 2023 and January 2024 alone.
This situation is not set to improve anytime soon. Of the 137,000 people who applied to join the military in 2023, 74,000 gave up because it took too long. For the Army alone over 70 per cent dropped out of the process.
Long delays are particularly harming reserve applications. Britain now has a similar number of reserves to Canada – a country with over 25 million fewer people. Strikingly, the US has double the amount of reserve personnel than the UK does as a proportion of the population.
Given the issues, it is hardly surprising that the Conservatives are not trusted more than Labour when it comes to defence policy, with Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer polling at 30 per cent regarding the public’s trust in their handling of defence. In the most uncertain and dangerous geopolitical situation since the Cuban Missile Crisis – when the author of Why England Slept was America’s President – Labour has a clear shot of presenting the Tories as having failed to protect the nation.
However, the Prime Minister can offer bold and ambitious plans to convince the public that they have woken up. First, while increasing the defence budget to 2.5 per cent of GDP is a start, it is clear that this needs to go further. Indeed, the current increase may only work out to an extra £20 billion.
The Prime Minister should set out in his manifesto to increase defence spending to 3 per cent as soon as possible after the election. After all, Poland spent 4 per cent of its GDP on defence in 2023. This is not only necessary but would be a popular move. Three-quarters of Conservative members want higher defence spending over tax cuts.
Second, urgent policies are needed to boost reserve personnel numbers, which provide useful units at a fifth of the cost of regulars. This will come if we speed up the recruitment process, but also critical is recruiting student reservists. Recently, the Chief of General Staff suggested a month’s paid boot camp for gap-year students as a pathway to boost reservist numbers.
This should be extended to all university students to undertake in their summers. For students, the cash incentive will go a long way and can potentially facilitate a culture of service in our youth: especially when 64 per cent are skipping meals to save money and many struggle with loneliness and boredom outside of term time.
The Conservatives can no longer take defence for granted. As Kennedy wrote, “it takes shocks – hard shocks – to change a nation’s psychology.” The shock of impending electoral defeat ought to change the Conservative Party’s psychology.