Freddie Downing was the Conservative Candidate for City and East in the London Assembly elections this month.
After the 1992 General Election, which Labour had expected to win, a Labour activist commented on how they could handle the party losing elections. It was the hope they couldn’t stand.
Having just gone through the London Mayoral and Assembly elections, I know how that activist felt.
As the Conservative candidate for the London Assembly constituency of City and East, my team and I were busy getting out the vote on Thursday 2nd May. By late afternoon we were getting reports of lower than usual turnout in this Labour stronghold. There were also reports of high turnout in the suburbs, where we usually do well. A few hours later one newspaper headline suggested that the Mayoral contest was on a ‘knife edge’. On Friday morning, as Conservative candidates and activists gathered at the Excel Centre for the vote verification, there was a genuine sense of optimism that Susan Hall, our Mayoral candidate, might just defy the opinion polls and win London.
Then the actual results started to filter through, and our sense of optimism fell to Earth like Newton’s apple. In the end, Sadiq Khan was re-elected to a third term as Mayor of London, beating Susan 44 per cent to 33 per cent.
Let me make two points clear. Firstly, I didn’t know Susan at the start of the campaign, but I’ve come to like and respect her very much. As our Mayoral candidate, she was hardworking, maintained her composure under incredible pressure and I don’t think there’re many people in UK politics who’re more sincere. Further, it’s only fair to add that when our party is trailing Labour by up to 30 per cent in London, an 11 per cent deficit doesn’t seem quite so bad.
That said, Khan was beatable. Some people, especially on the opposing side, may doubt what I’m about to say but it’s the truth. Together with the City and East team, we knocked on thousands of doors during the campaign. I can’t remember a single person saying to me that Khan was doing a good job as Mayor. People were looking for someone else to vote for.
Reflecting on the campaign, I think there were three key weaknesses we need to address if we want to win London next time.
From start to finish, name recognition was an issue for our Mayoral candidate. Week after week we were asking people on the doorstep who they planned to vote for: Sadiq Khan or Susan Hall. A very low number said Khan (bearing in mind that City and East was Labour’s strongest area in 2021). However, it was clear from their reaction that many people didn’t recognise Susan’s name either. Even on polling day we spoke to people who’d voted Conservative but couldn’t name our Mayoral candidate.
By itself the ‘doughnut’ can’t delivery victory. If we want to win, we need to win votes across London. It’s inevitable that following the ULEZ expansion outer London was very much in the spotlight, and I backed Susan’s commitment to scrapping it on day one as Mayor. However, deliberate or not, this sensible policy seemed to morph into a doughnut strategy, as if high voter turnout in the suburbs would deliver lots of Conservative votes, enough to get Susan over the line. Of course, these areas are important for us, but an almost exclusive focus on outer London, especially at the expense of inner London, didn’t work and won’t work. Yes, Boris Johnson won more than half the first preference votes in Bexley, Havering and Sutton in 2008, but he also won more than a quarter of the first preference votes in places like Haringey, Southwark and Tower Hamlets.
If we’re going to campaign across London, we need policies to benefit every part of the capital. Susan had a clear offering for outer London – scrap the ULEZ expansion. There were other thoughtful, costed policies too: recruiting 1,500 extra police officers, expanding the Night Tube and the Women’s Safety Plan – all areas where Khan has let London down. Unfortunately, these policies came too late to make an impact. The commitment to restoring the Freedom Pass at peak times was popular with older voters when we mentioned it, but you could be forgiven if you missed the announcement. The promise to return to borough-based policing was sensible, but its significance is quite hard to explain on the doorstep. Above all, it felt like we had little to offer inner London. When people in the City asked me what Susan Hall as Mayor would mean for them, I wasn’t able to give a persuasive response. We lacked a big, bold and distinctive policy to mirror scrapping the ULEZ expansion, such as rolling out 4G across the underground, fixing the Central Line or action to boost home ownership, like raising the income threshold on shared ownership eligibility. We need to show how Conservatism is relevant for urban areas, as well as the suburbs.
The recent London elections show that we can’t rely on Khan’s unpopularity to win. To secure victory in 2028, we need a Mayoral candidate with name recognition, or at least someone with the potential for this if given the right opportunities. This person also needs to be able to appeal beyond their political base and can’t be someone our opponents find it easy to characterise as being on the political fringe. Further, we need to campaign across London. Yes, we’ll have our stronger areas, but that doesn’t mean we can ignore voters elsewhere. The doughnut alone won’t deliver victory. We need to build our strength in inner London. This means having a handful of distinctive policies which together will benefit every part of our capital and we can sell on the doorstep.
I would like to see a Mayoral candidate who champions business and homeownership; who has a plan for investing in public transport but understands why some people choose to drive; and who appreciates the first job of government is keeping the public safe. Above all, I want a candidate who has the ambition to make London the city it should be and that includes having a thriving nightlife. And if one person can’t tick every box, let’s be creative, for example, pre-announcing a Deputy Mayor who can complement the top of the ticket.
The next London Mayoral election may be four years away, but the planning for victory must start now.