“Jeremy Hunt has accused Labour of having a secret plan to raise VAT and has challenged Sir Keir Starmer to explicitly rule out the possibility. Labour has repeatedly refused to rule it out after being asked at various campaign events. On Wednesday night, in the wake of the accusation, Rachel Reeves, the shadow chancellor, issued a statement insisting that the party was not planning to increase VAT, although it remains to be seen whether that will be a manifesto commitment. The attack will be on the first Conservative poster of the election campaign, unveiled on Thursday, which declares: “If you think Labour will win, start saving…” The Tories say a one percentage point increase in the main rate of VAT would generate around £9 billion a year – the same as what they claim is the funding black hole in Labour’s plans.” – Daily Telegraph
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>Yesterday: Miriam Cates’ column: Politicians must make popular policies that are in the national interest – not quick fixes
“England’s teenage footie stars will be able to get out of compulsory national service, a Cabinet minister has hinted. Mums and dads will also not be prosecuted or fined if their 18 year-old kids dodge the draft, Work and Pensions Secretary Mel Stride said. Labour had gone studs up on the Tory manifesto policy to bring in compulsory national service for all 18 year olds – warning it would stop footie wonderkids from playing for their country. England legend Michael Owen was 18 when he scored his famous wonder goal against Argentina in the World Cup in France in 1998. Speaking to The Sun’s Never Mind the Ballots Show, Mr Stride said there would be opt outs for a small number of 18 year-olds.” – The Sun
>Today:
“As some groups are hard to reach, companies “weight” their data by different categories to make their samples representative of the wider population, and the categories chosen – whether a respondent has a degree, for instance – can themselves have an impact on a poll’s result. Modelling of likely turnout also has an effect. Some pollsters rely on respondents telling them how likely they are to vote; others only retain those who have voted historically. The most significant proportion of the current gap between pollsters, though, comes down to how they deal with undecided voters. About one in eight Britons are undecided, including 16 per cent of 2019 Conservative voters… As undecided voters are more likely than the general public to have voted Conservative in 2019, removing them from the sample results in higher Labour leads.” – The Times
>Today: ToryDiary: Vox pub in Hartlepool: Johnson leaves a gap no other politician has yet filled
“Rishi Sunak has predicted family mortgage bills will finally begin to fall if he wins the general election. The Prime Minister declared the Conservatives are the “party who has committed to bringing down inflation, which is the necessary condition for bringing down interest rates.” And Mr Sunak revealed he is “confident” that the tax burden will also begin to fall, easing the pressure on family finances. With the economy set to be the central battleground for the July 4 general election, Mr Sunak – the former Chancellor – revealed he shares Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey’s “optimism” over the direction of interest rates… Interest rates have been held at 5.25 percent. But economists at the IMF also said the Bank of England has scope to cut interest rates up to three times this year.” – Daily Express
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>Today: Frances Lasok and David Powell in Comment: Net Zero is good news – and the public want it front and centre
>Yesterday: ToryDiary: It is absurd to protect pensioners’ personal allowance from inflation but inflict fiscal drag on working people
“Rishi Sunak said “no deal” to Nigel Farage after the Brexit mischief maker opened the door to peace. The Reform UK President had hinted he could back away from his goal of wiping out the Tories at the ballot box if the PM reached out for talks. But responding to his challenge – made exclusively on our Never Mind the Ballots show – Mr Sunak said no dice last night. Boris Johnson cut a deal with Farage in 2019 to see his troops – then under the Brexit Party banner – step back from standing in Tory held seats leading to a Conservative landslide. However, so far this campaign, Reform have insisted there would be no such deal. Farage told The Sun that the Tories deserved to be wiped out for “betraying” voters on immigration and Brexit.” – The Sun
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>Today: ToryDiary: Farage has consigned himself to the margins of this election – but his instincts remain better than Tice’s
>Yesterday: Fred de Fossard in Think Tanks: What does the future of the right look like? Last week, the Legatum Institute tried to find out.
“Labour has “no plans” to change rules barring health and care workers from bringing their families to the UK on their visas, despite a plummeting number of NHS staff since the rules were changed earlier this year. Wes Streeting, the shadow health secretary, said the health service had become too reliant on overseas staff and the party would aim to recruit and train workers from the UK. Numbers applying for a health and care worker visa have dropped by 76% this year since the change, which the government hailed as a success in its bid to cut legal migration, but which experts said would have a significant impact on the health service. The development comes as the government on Wednesday confirmed in writing for the first time that no asylum seekers will be flown to Rwanda before the general election.” – The Guardian
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“Diane Abbott has vowed to continue as an MP by “any means” as Sir Keir Starmer was urged to let her stand under the Labour banner in Hackney North & Stoke Newington. Starmer was warned on Wednesday that he had 48 hours to have a “respectful” conversation with Abbott as the party faced a growing backlash over the “utterly shambolic” handling of her future. Addressing a rally of supporters at Hackney Town Hall, Abbott said that she wanted to be the area’s MP for “as long as possible”. It raises the prospect of Labour having to fight its former leader and former shadow home secretary if Abbott joins Jeremy Corbyn in standing as an independent. Starmer said yesterday that no decision had been taken on whether to allow Abbott, 70, to stand as the Labour candidate…” – The Times
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“Lefty Labour MP Lloyd Russell-Moyle has been suspended by the Labour Party over a “serious” complaint about his behaviour. It means the Brighton Kemptown MP, a staunch ally of Jeremy Corbyn, could now be dropped from standing for Labour at the General Election in July. It is understood the 37-year-old was sent a letter last week by party bosses informing him he had been suspended pending the outcome of an internal investigation. The suspension followed what sources called a “serious complaint” being made against him, which the MP has publicly denied… His suspension means Labour could seek to choose a new candidate in the plum constituency, which they are expected to easily hold.” – The Sun
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>Yesterday: Lord Ashcroft in Comment: “I don’t know how it compares to England but it’s the worst it’s ever been”. My focus groups in Scotland.
“Labour will adopt a Tony Blair-style action plan to tackle street crime to help bring down soaring rates of mobile phone theft, robbery and knife attacks if it wins the election. Yvette Cooper, the shadow home secretary, said she would prioritise “rebuilding safety on Britain’s streets” in the same way as the former prime minister did when he targeted the issue in the early 2000s. She said she would use the party’s pledge to put 13,000 more neighbourhood police officers on the streets to tackle worrying rates of thefts, robberies and knife crime plaguing town and city centres. She said it would accelerate current government efforts to use modern technology such as artificial intelligence and data analysis to identify crime hotspots in order to know where to dedicate extra police resources.” – The Times
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>Yesterday:
“HM Revenue and Customs has confirmed that Angela Rayner owes no capital gains tax for the sale of her former council house and that no further action will be taken, according to a document seen by the Guardian. The tax authority said two weeks ago it had considered the evidence and had concluded the house in Stockport was the Labour deputy leader’s principal residence the whole time she owned it, meaning no tax would be due. Greater Manchester police said on Tuesday that Rayner had been cleared of wrongdoing over claims she wrongly declared her permanent address on the electoral register, which would have been a criminal offence. The force said it was taking no further action but that because matters involving personal tax or council tax did not fall under its jurisdiction it had shared information from its six-week investigation with HMRC and Stockport council.” – The Guardian
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