Angus Parsad-Wyatt is Chief Executive of ConservativeHome.
Welcome to week two of ConservativeHome’s Campaign Notebook – our weekly journey through the Conservatives’ general election campaign.
Last week we opened with Sir Iain Duncan Smith in Chingford and Woodford Green. This week we head around the M25 to Hertfordshire, and bring you the latest from two ‘blue wall’ constituencies – Welwyn Hatfield, home to Grant Shapps, the Defence Secretary; and Hertford and Stortford, represented by Julie Marson, a member of the 2019-intake.
Welwyn Hatfield
The constituency of Welwyn Hatfield is one to watch at this election for two reasons. Firstly, it elected a Conservative MP from 1979 to 1997 and has done so again since 2005, going to Labour for only two elections at the height of the Blair years. If 4 July turns into a 1997-style trouncing for the Conservatives, this could well be a seat that falls.
Secondly, because if that happens it will be yet another Cabinet-level casualty; Shapps is the Defence Secretary, and formerly Party Chairman, as well as holding the Transport and Business portfolios and serving (for six days) as Home Secretary.
It is a blustery Saturday morning when ConservativeHome arrives at a playing field car park in Welwyn Garden City. A large group of activists has started to gather. It is immediately obvious that Shapps has a lot of local support.
From young parents who have dragged their children along to play ‘postman’ to older, seasoned campaigners and everything in between, this is a diverse group who have given up their Saturday morning in the hope of getting their man re-elected.
Whilst a team of campaign managers busily hand out placards and bundles of leaflets for delivery, ConservativeHome speaks to a few of the activists.
“I’m not exactly impressed with what’s been happening nationally the last few years, but Grant is a decent man and an excellent MP for this area, so we will do everything we can for him in the election” one gentleman tells us; “And Labour are throwing a lot of money at their guy” adds his colleague.
A woman stood close by chimes in “Grant is always helping people out and getting things done, so we want to help him get re-elected. Plus we don’t want ‘Spineless Starmer’ being Prime Minister.”
There is a sense that, despite geographically being only about twenty miles from Parliament, and despite their candidate being in the Cabinet, these activists are keen to distance themselves from Westminster politics, and instead focus on a good local MP who works hard for his constituents.
After the customary group photo, Shapps climbs the photographer’s step-ladder to thank the assembled troops. He is full of energy and seeks to motivate his supporters:
“Ignore the national polls, look at real results. Just last month we won the PCC election here – not just across Hertfordshire but specifically here in Welwyn. That is a Conservative winning here, and we can do that again on 4 July.”
However, with a majority just shy of 11,000 votes in 2019, Shapps cannot afford to completely ignore the national polls – which predict this seat going to Labour – and he knows he is going to have to fight for every vote.
And that includes winning votes from other parties. “I am proud of my record, and you’ll notice on our leaflets we have people who have previously voted for other parties supporting me, because I have helped them, or delivered on an issue that matters to them” Shapps tells ConservativeHome.
What the key message is, particularly when it comes to turning out Conservative voters on the day?
“I say to people that if Welwyn Hatfield goes then there is already a Blair-style majority Labour government. So their choice is between a generic backbencher in a sea of unchecked authority, or a good local MP who works hard and will provide effective opposition.”
So no expectation of a Conservative government, then.
We noted last week the likelihood that many Tory candidates might ditch (or at least minimise) the ‘Conservatives’ branding on their literature. That is not quite the story here.
Whilst this leaflet does not have the word or logo emblazoned all over it, the branding is familiarly the Party’s. Reflecting the sense from both activists and Shapps himself that this campaign is about what he has achieved for the people of Welwyn Hatfield, his calling card carries the quote: “Almost everyone knows someone Grant has helped”.
To test that claim, we sought out some voters to get their thoughts. “I think they’re all a shambles – the Tories keep changing leader, and Starmer keeps changing his mind. I won’t be voting for any of them” says one disgruntled retiree tending to his front garden. “But I think Grant is a nice man” add his wife, unsure whether she will back him on the day.
Further down the street a lady tells us she’ll be voting Labour because she feels “something has to change, I don’t know whether it will, but we’ve got to try something else.” A young couple who recently moved to Welwyn Garden City say they are undecided:
“We want to see who campaigns for our vote locally. We’ve heard a bit about Grant Shapps, so maybe he’s good, but to be honest we’ll see what the others are like too.”
During his short-lived bid to be Leader of the Conservative Party in July 2022, Shapps’ pitch to his colleagues was: “I can help you win your seat”. The question now is whether he can win his own.
Hertford and Stortford
A short drive east along the A414 takes us to Ware, one of the four main towns that make up the Hertford & Stortford constituency (along with Sawbridgeworth and, unsurprisingly, Hertford and Bishop’s Stortford). Here, first-term MP Marson is hoping to retain the seat she won with a majority of nearly 20,000 in 2019.
Hertford & Stortford has returned a Conservative MP since the seat was created in 1983, and the Tory majority has never fallen below 5,603 (in 2001). That, combined with Marson’s current majority, suggests this should be a safe seat. But readers will know at this election there is no such thing for the Conservatives.
“I’m pleased to be out there on the campaign trail around the constituency, and I am going to be fighting hard”, Marson starts. “We don’t take anyone for granted, unlike Labour who are treating people with contempt. They have no policy, no vision, and insulting to the electorate.”
It’s clear that Marson, a former junior whip, has got the central campaign’s attack lines down. But what is her message to those Conservative-leaning voters who may be thinking about sitting this one out?
“This election really matters. The economy is turning a corner, and we are living in increasingly dangerous and volatile times, so security is also massively important. Don’t stay at home, make a choice and back our plan, because nobody knows what Labour would do other than raise taxes and raid pensions, because they always do.”
In this once Tory stronghold, the campaign seems to be very much on Party lines, with literature repeating the ‘Clear Plan. Bold Action. Secure Future.’ tagline and even a prominent Party logo, supported by local action on chalk streams, banking facilities, and SEND education funding.
Interesting that SEND funding should be specifically mentioned on the leaflet, as it is one of the issues raised by a young teacher we speak to on the High Street: “There’s just not enough support for SEND children – they’ve been let down by the Tories, and in fact education as a whole has been a failure over the past decade.”
We – and the stats – disagree, but this is the view of one individual teacher, who tells us she’ll be voting Liberal Democrat.
A middle-aged man tells us “all of the parties are a waste of time at the moment, I will sit this one out”, and another on the doorstep says they can all “[go away]” – or at least we hope he meant the politicians and not us. These two both reflect that sense of disillusionment that we’ve picked up elsewhere in this campaign. Could ‘none of the above’ be the real winner?
On a side street a man in his thirties tells us he’ll be voting Labour because “the Tories offer nothing for me or my mates”; and further along an elderly lady says she will definitely be voting Conservative because she doesn’t trust Starmer – “he’s a snake oil salesman.”
The people of Ware managed to perfectly encapsulate both the battle between the parties in Hertford and Stortford, and the challenge in predicting a winner here on 4 July. Some people are entrenched in their position, many are undecided, and others will abstain altogether. It really is too close to call, and all to play for.
In the week ahead we will be travelling through the Midlands battlegrounds, and watching out for surprises in Surrey – read all about it in the third Campaign Notebook next Tuesday.