Loathe am I to promote any poll in this leadership election that is not our own. There is only one God, and His name is the ConservativeHome Party Members’ Survey Panel. Nonetheless, unbelievers do exist. In the absence of a good stoning, it is polite to pay some attention to their findings.
James Cleverly is the most popular candidate amongst Tory members, according to a poll of 805 of us taken by Techne UK earlier this month. He was the first choice of 26 per cent, followed by Priti Patel on 20 per cent, Kemi Badenoch on 14 per cent, Tom Tugendhat on 11 per cent, Robert Jenrick on 10 per cent, and Mel Stride on 4 per cent. They have him winning every final two.
The findings of our most recent survey were rather different. We had Badenoch way out in front on 33 per cent, Jenrick in second on 19 per cent, Tugendhat just ahead of fourth place Cleverly on 10 per cent, Patel on 8 per cent, Stride on 2 per cent, with 18 per cent opting for that perennial candidate Don’t Know. We haven’t (yet) done a head-to-head. Why the divergence?
If I was a more conspiratorial man, I would raise an eyebrow at the fact that this survey was commissioned by Cleverly’s team. But, in fairness, Techne does have a good track record on Tory leadership races. Last time, they predicted 33 per cent for Rishi Sunak and 59 per cent for Liz Truss in the final two, with 8 per cent don’t knows. The actual result was 57 to 43 per cent.
Since our surveys were in the field at about the same time, I’m sceptical that there was some quantum shift in member opinion that our survey failed to pick up on. As Shadow Home Secretary, Cleverly did benefit from more media exposure during the riots. But why didn’t our survey pick that up?
Perhaps the next edition will. Or perhaps God’s honest truth is that polling party members is quite difficult. Our readers tend to be the more engaged parts of the Tory selectorate, but we are still a fissiparous and cantankerous bunch. We move in mysterious ways. I believe ConservativeHome has a good track record on knowing members’ minds. We’ll see who gets egg on their faces.
We still have over two months, several rounds of MP voting, and a party conference before we even get to the final two candidates and the members’ vote. ConservativeHome should run run-off polls in due course. There is an awful lot that can still change in this race. The frontrunner is usually doomed; so are those who have run before. David Cameron went from third to first in 2005.
In the meantime, it only seems fair to Cleverly to ask just why he might be a frontrunner amongst members. The one thing everyone agrees about him is that he is affable. In a profile of the then-Foreign Secretary last year, Andrew Gimson suggested Cleverly would be well-suited as a “mainstream candidate” designed to block a “more ideological figure” such as, for example, Kemi Badenoch.
In both his abortive 2019 leadership run and his current one, Cleverly centred his pitch on party unity. Back then he suggested we were “beset by division” and could not unite “if…led from [our] fringes”. This time around he lamented the “infighting, navel-gazing, and the internecine manoeuvrings…that plagues us in government”. Who, except for Tim Shipman, would disagree?
As a rugby fan, as a member of the Territorials, and as a politician, Cleverly has a reputation as a good team man. He won a reputation at the Foreign Office for getting along with and impressing officials. He is genial, clear, and has a sense of humour, even if it has been known to get him into trouble.
Touring the country, glad-handing members, kissing babies, and the plight of the Winter Fuel Payment, Cleverly has a prime opportunity to show members his genial side up close. He was a Party Chairman during the 2019 election. He has written for us about how he “seen under the bonnet of CCHQ” and knows how to fix it. Members, activists, voters: il te comprend.
But the same question that I asked of Cleverly a month ago still stands: does he have that iron in him? I don’t doubt the loyalty of a man who faithfully served Theresa May, Boris Johnson, Truss, and Sunak. I don’t doubt his sense of humour, or his enthusiasm. But what is there beneath it? Leading the party, and the country, will require more than being affable. A hard rain will have to fall.
Whilst Cleverly was at the Foreign Office, there were suggestions, highlighted by Gimson, that he most enjoyed treating the role as a continual photoshoot, and that, for all his professionalism, he was a little too ready to simply trot along with what his diplomats suggested. All power to the Sensible Chaps.
I’m sure the Shadow Home Secretary would vigorously dispute any suggestion that he lacks his own worldview. Indeed, he has aimed to outline it in the obligatory Telegraph op-ed paying fealty to the Lady. Unity “isn’t about holding hands and singing Kumbaya”, but “the first step”. We “must unite for something”. Core to that should be “a clear plan for our economic growth”.
Both Cleverly and his father started their own small firms, but found themselves frustrated by Labour’s “anti-business, anti-entrepreneur world”. His father benefited from the transformation Margaret Thatcher delivered. Cleverly wants a “modern pitch” of that same liberating force of popular capitalism.
Britain must “ditch the tired, post-Blair consensus and break the habit of taxing, regulating, subsidising, and borrowing and taxing more”. We must be “realistic” about the role of the state, and press forward with deregulating, resisting tax rises, and creating an environment in which entrepreneurs can thrive.
For Tories, our central mission must be to “unite over our shared values” and “once again offer a positive Conservative vision for a thriving, booming Britain”. Here, here. The article came out whilst Techne’s survey was in the field. Perhaps a few members noticed and enjoyed it.
Quite honestly, there was little in it with which any Tory, except the most committed reactionary agriculturalists, could disagree. As with Cleverly’s leadership launch, it’s a little motherhood and apple pie. What happens when the trade-offs need to be made? When the Treasury starts squealing about immigration or retirees rise in protest at fiscal reality? Who wins out?
Many words could be used to describe the Iron Lady, but clubbable wouldn’t be top. Cleverly hopes to offer a quieter life. A profile described him as “everyone’s second preference”. But if this Techne poll is believed, he might be exactly what members want. Have we had enough of ideology, of raised temperatures, and of grand schemes that explode on contact with the general electorate?
Of course, before Cleverly gets to members he must first get past MPs His great asset, his central virtue, is that he is a sufficiently uncontroversial that even those who do not vote for him might be willing to serve under him. Contrary to our recent GDP booster, he does not have that bad blood. After so many seasons of the Tory telenovela, wouldn’t it be wonderful to change the channel?
Having had several leaders now chosen by members and toppled by MPs, it would be great for the party’s mental health if both sides could be on the same page. Members need to remember that MPs must be able to work with their chosen candidate; MPs must remember that members have their vote and do not enjoy having their favourite candidates excluded from the final two.
That applies whether one places more faith in our survey or Techne’s. Speaking to party members yesterday, many considered Cleverly to be a different gravy. His pitch is clear and his assets are obvious. If he can yet scale the heights of the ConservativeHome survey, the frontrunner crown could be his.
Whether this helps him at all, or what he chooses to do with it, is a separate matter.