The first job of the opposition is to earn the right to be heard.
Iain Duncan Smith, a man who knows a good deal about the challenges of leading the Conservative party in opposition said this in the immediate aftermath of the general election defeat. It really stuck with me, and I’ve heard many others repeat it since.
It may be that the best route for the new leader to earn that right will start, not in Westminster, but across the UK, in counties and local authorities.
Anyone in the last government recognised that many months before the election the media had stopped listening, and the voting public a good deal before that. As countless Conservatives have had to acknowledge since, a failure to deliver on promises and a loss of both trust and a reputation for competence brought a tidal wave of “anyone-but-them” voting in July.
It was a Councillor at this year’s Conference that reminded an audience at an event I was chairing, that it wasn’t just MPs who’d lost seats because of this failure. In May this year the party lost 474 councillors. Labour and the Lib Dems gained nearly 300 between them.
This councillor was as frustrated at these losses as he was with the huge loss of MPs. He identified the loss of talent and expertise as the real blow, a blow delivered to people who in many cases had not failed to deliver but were being abandoned because of the rosette they wore and parliamentary antics in Westminster.
Accurate or not, I couldn’t help feeling that these local losses in May had been inadvertently airbrushed out of the difficult conversations about the general election defeat.
Underestimating the importance of local government to a Conservative recovery would be a huge mistake. Westminster and Whitehall has not always seen Godminster and town hall as equally important. Sir Humphrey in “Yes, Prime Minister” epitomises it:
“Bernard, if the right people don’t have power, do you know what happens? The wrong people get it: politicians, councillors, ordinary voters!”
The Conservative party must show it’s on the side of exactly that list of people – and do it right now. There simply isn’t time to brush this aside with just over six months until local elections next year.
21 county councils and 10 unitary authorities, 4 elected mayors, 1 Metropolitan Borough and the City of London Corporation will be contested on May 1st, 2025.
Since these will be the first elections held after the general election there will be a stubborn and obvious media prism applied to them. They’ll be seen as a test of whether the Conservatives, and their new leader have made any impact after 10 months in opposition. So winning seats matters symbolically.
There are some encouraging signs, albeit small. Two weeks ago, polling (9-10th Oct) by More in Common put Labour and Conservatives level on 27 per cent, with Reform chasing hard on 21 per cent.
Compare that picture with actual local by-election results (admirably covered for ConHome by Harry Phibbs) and the signs are clearer. Of 92 by-elections (for 94 seats) since the General election: Labour have 34 (down 17) The Conservatives have 28 (up 12) The Lib Dems 14 and Reform 1.
I’m not going to pretend the Reform challenge isn’t real, and I won’t disrespect their voters by assuming the challenge has gone away, it absolutely hasn’t.
However, the fact that even without the new leader in place, whilst many voters are still frustrated with the last government, and the scale of Tory collapse in July – locally, Conservatives are winning council seats.
The second reason local government really matters right now is that if the Conservatives can keep winning council seats it will be in local government alone that the party can show it has learned lessons and demonstrate competence.
The new Leader will say the right things, I’m sure. They will try to energise the party across the country to believe things are going to be different. But they can only actually show it, in local government.
Frankly, they must.
The path back to national government is strewn with obstacles, some created by Conservatives, others by their opponents, and some that every party faces but they all have to be navigated if there is any chance to turn a bad to defeat in 2024 into victory in 2029.
It is a monumental task, and every aspect of the party has to work properly to have any expectation that such a hope can become a reality. Labour, the Lib Dems and Reform would love to see the Tories fail, but the road back upwards starts with delivering in local government and winning back council seats.
Success in local government also brings a third benefit that relates to success in Westminster. Having representation locally builds those party networks that if we are honest have been damaged by the last six months.
You can’t win from a lectern or dispatch box only.
You won’t win from sparkling turns on the TV or Today programme alone.
You have to be on the doorsteps across the UK and believe in what you are offering to people.
Voters want to know you care about where they live, and the issues they think are important. An army of local councillors is a huge foundation for the parliamentary candidates of the future, and, I have no doubt, will provide a number of them too.
If, via local government success, the new leader can earn that right to be heard by the electorate, the next hard step on the journey is – convincing them to keep listening.