Mathieu Vaillancourt is a writer with a degree in International development from the University of Ottawa.
As much as British Tories are now in rebuilding mode after a huge defeat, things are much better on the other side of the Atlantic for the Conservative Party of Canada.
The Canadian Conservative leader, Pierre Poilievre, is a singular individual. Nobody in Canadian politics who has held a high-ranking position has ever really had his unique life path. The more you look at his life story, the more atypical it appears.
Born to a teenage mother and adopted by a family of French-Canadian teachers in Alberta, Poilievre doesn’t have the background of a typical Canadian politician. He is the first Conservative Opposition Leader in history to have been raised by a French-Canadian family, yet he is not seen as Québécois and does not speak French like a Québécois “bleu” would. His adoptive father is openly gay. Poilievre is married to a refugee from Venezuela who grew up in Quebec, and she is perfectly trilingual in English, French, and Spanish.
Poilievre has been involved in Canadian politics from a young age, serving as an MP since 2004 in a suburban/urban constituency of Ottawa, the federal capital. While the constituency changed with redistribution a decade ago, it remains a mix of large suburban housing developments, small hamlets, and rural areas. His constituency, or “riding” as it’s called in Canada, includes public servants living suburban lives, people residing in Ottawa’s exurbs on large estates or in small hamlets, and farmers. It’s considered the most right-wing constituency in Ottawa.
Poilievre served in Stephen Harper’s Cabinet, but he found his niche as an astute opposition politician, with many of his videos going viral online. It’s worth noting that Poilievre likely planned his Conservative Party leadership bid for a long time, given that he won a landslide victory in the last leadership contest against Jean Charest, a former leader of the Progressive Conservative Party and former Premier of Canada’s second-largest province.
Poilievre is a young member of Generation X, almost a Millennial, while Charest is a Baby Boomer, who seemed uncomfortable with the social media age of politics—despite his rise at a young age in the 1980s, almost becoming Prime Minister in a leadership contest in 1993.
Poilievre’s greatest strength is his online following and his ability to deliver a snappy message that appeals not only to traditional Conservative voters but also to those dissatisfied with Justin Trudeau’s government and its alliance with the left-leaning New Democratic Party. Like many other Western countries, Canada is experiencing a cost-of-living crisis, with many people struggling financially. There is relatively high food price inflation, and Canadians have some of the highest levels of personal debt in the Western world. Many younger Canadians cannot afford decent housing, especially in major cities, even with decent salaries.
Trudeau’s government has faced significant scandals, particularly regarding its ties to the Chinese. There has also recently been a massive mismanagement scandal related to a green ”slush fund” scheme.
Can Poilievre be the man to unseat Justin Trudeau after a decade in power? Although polling can change, current numbers are clear: Mr. Poilievre has a path to becoming Prime Minister, especially after winning a key by-election in a safe Liberal seat just north of Downtown Toronto.
Ontario, a province with a large number of parliamentary seats, particularly in the middle-class “mortgage belt” suburbs of the Greater Toronto Area, will be key to his success. The province’s government is center-right, and Premier Doug Ford—brother of the late Rob Ford, the former crack-smoking mayor of Toronto—has won two provincial elections by almost sweeping these suburban areas. If the next federal election in Canada is framed as a “change election,” Poilievre could indeed become Prime Minister.
Poilievre’s strategy involves engaging directly with potential Conservative voters in Toronto and Vancouver suburbs, attending events, and visiting churches, mosques, temples, and synagogues. Many of these voters are “visible minorities”—a Canadian term for non-white people—who are often open to conservative values and sometimes vote Conservative, especially if they desire change.
Additionally, Poilievre has been performing well in public opinion in Atlantic Canada, a region that is culturally conservative but traditionally votes Liberal federally, due to historical ties, even though its values align more closely with small-c conservatism.
One thing is certain. Both Poilievre and Keir Starmer share this in common—their potential rise to power hinges on their political acumen, being in the right place at the right time, and riding the wave of a possible “change election.”
Mathieu Vaillancourt is a writer with a degree in International development from the University of Ottawa.
As much as British Tories are now in rebuilding mode after a huge defeat, things are much better on the other side of the Atlantic for the Conservative Party of Canada.
The Canadian Conservative leader, Pierre Poilievre, is a singular individual. Nobody in Canadian politics who has held a high-ranking position has ever really had his unique life path. The more you look at his life story, the more atypical it appears.
Born to a teenage mother and adopted by a family of French-Canadian teachers in Alberta, Poilievre doesn’t have the background of a typical Canadian politician. He is the first Conservative Opposition Leader in history to have been raised by a French-Canadian family, yet he is not seen as Québécois and does not speak French like a Québécois “bleu” would. His adoptive father is openly gay. Poilievre is married to a refugee from Venezuela who grew up in Quebec, and she is perfectly trilingual in English, French, and Spanish.
Poilievre has been involved in Canadian politics from a young age, serving as an MP since 2004 in a suburban/urban constituency of Ottawa, the federal capital. While the constituency changed with redistribution a decade ago, it remains a mix of large suburban housing developments, small hamlets, and rural areas. His constituency, or “riding” as it’s called in Canada, includes public servants living suburban lives, people residing in Ottawa’s exurbs on large estates or in small hamlets, and farmers. It’s considered the most right-wing constituency in Ottawa.
Poilievre served in Stephen Harper’s Cabinet, but he found his niche as an astute opposition politician, with many of his videos going viral online. It’s worth noting that Poilievre likely planned his Conservative Party leadership bid for a long time, given that he won a landslide victory in the last leadership contest against Jean Charest, a former leader of the Progressive Conservative Party and former Premier of Canada’s second-largest province.
Poilievre is a young member of Generation X, almost a Millennial, while Charest is a Baby Boomer, who seemed uncomfortable with the social media age of politics—despite his rise at a young age in the 1980s, almost becoming Prime Minister in a leadership contest in 1993.
Poilievre’s greatest strength is his online following and his ability to deliver a snappy message that appeals not only to traditional Conservative voters but also to those dissatisfied with Justin Trudeau’s government and its alliance with the left-leaning New Democratic Party. Like many other Western countries, Canada is experiencing a cost-of-living crisis, with many people struggling financially. There is relatively high food price inflation, and Canadians have some of the highest levels of personal debt in the Western world. Many younger Canadians cannot afford decent housing, especially in major cities, even with decent salaries.
Trudeau’s government has faced significant scandals, particularly regarding its ties to the Chinese. There has also recently been a massive mismanagement scandal related to a green ”slush fund” scheme.
Can Poilievre be the man to unseat Justin Trudeau after a decade in power? Although polling can change, current numbers are clear: Mr. Poilievre has a path to becoming Prime Minister, especially after winning a key by-election in a safe Liberal seat just north of Downtown Toronto.
Ontario, a province with a large number of parliamentary seats, particularly in the middle-class “mortgage belt” suburbs of the Greater Toronto Area, will be key to his success. The province’s government is center-right, and Premier Doug Ford—brother of the late Rob Ford, the former crack-smoking mayor of Toronto—has won two provincial elections by almost sweeping these suburban areas. If the next federal election in Canada is framed as a “change election,” Poilievre could indeed become Prime Minister.
Poilievre’s strategy involves engaging directly with potential Conservative voters in Toronto and Vancouver suburbs, attending events, and visiting churches, mosques, temples, and synagogues. Many of these voters are “visible minorities”—a Canadian term for non-white people—who are often open to conservative values and sometimes vote Conservative, especially if they desire change.
Additionally, Poilievre has been performing well in public opinion in Atlantic Canada, a region that is culturally conservative but traditionally votes Liberal federally, due to historical ties, even though its values align more closely with small-c conservatism.
One thing is certain. Both Poilievre and Keir Starmer share this in common—their potential rise to power hinges on their political acumen, being in the right place at the right time, and riding the wave of a possible “change election.”