Chris Hopkins is the Political Research Director at Savanta.
There is a tendency in the United Kingdom to overanalyse US politics.
Partially because of cultural ties, our shared language and – let’s be honest – our political class’s obsession with The West Wing, we tend to overstate similarities between our two countries. It’s worth remembering that we have different political traditions and systems, in particular when reflecting on the US Presidential election, and what it might mean for us.
But where there is data to suggest the beginnings of a new phenomenon in the UK, it can be useful to compare and contrast with our cousins over the Atlantic.
A long-term trend here and the wider developed world has been a sense of alienation that young people have felt from ‘mainstream’ politics. Despite this, Labour, Democrats and other left-leaning parties have been able to count on their support for the past 20-30 years. Often this has been in fewer numbers than required to make a tangible impact, but they’ve been a core part of the liberal coalition for a long time now.
This made sense intuitively. Conservative parties were typically focused on preserving the current state of affairs and stability. For many young people, they saw no benefit to this, and accordingly voted for ‘change’ parties, who tended to be more left leaning.
That’s beginning to change now.
In the US, Trump’s Republicans are seen as the party of radical change. That was partially a consequence of the Democrat’s running a sitting Vice-President as their candidate, but also speaks to a broader truth that Trump is simply unlike any other major political candidate in recent US history.
Over here, Starmer’s Labour has slowly become the party of defending institutions and democratic norms. Being seen to be defending the status quo is dangerous when much of the public is crying out for something different.
We already know that young people in the US were much more evenly divided between the major parties than in recent elections. This is because of the significant ‘gender gap’, where 55 per cent of young men voted for Trump, compared to 58 per cent of young women who backed Harris.
And we’re starting to see that play out in a different way in the UK. Young people are still more likely to have backed Labour, with pollsters estimating that 18–24-year-olds were between five and eight times more likely to have voted for Starmer’s party than the Conservatives. But for the first time in a long time, that doesn’t tell the whole story: with only 41 per cent of 18-24 year old’s backing Labour in this election, compared to 56 per cent in 2019.
But those on the Conservative side, cheering from the sideline, should beware. They were likely the fifth or sixth most popular party among young people at this election. And it doesn’t seem – yet – like they’re returning to the Tories in their swathes.
Because young people are potentially beginning to splinter, and on gender lines. Young women are twice as likely (24 per cent) to vote Greens than young men (12 per cent). While young men are twice as likely (12 per cent) to vote Reform UK than young women (6 per cent).
This isn’t just a short-term problem either.
Savanta’s research this year suggested that just three in ten (28 per cent) young people who have voted Conservative in the past but didn’t in July, can see them themselves backing the Conservative Party at the next election. One in five (21 per cent) of that group of young ‘Defectors’ say they can’t see themselves ever voting Conservative again.
Incumbent parties seem to be getting kicked out all over the world. Labour has had a rocky start in government to say the least. And young people appear to be unwilling to consider the Conservatives anytime soon.
So where will they go? Away from the mainstream of British politics.
And that should concern the Conservative Party just as much as Labour strategists.
There’s a couple of reasons for that. Firstly, the further young people move away from the centre, the further they will likely move away from the Conservative Party. I don’t think it’s going to be easier to switch a Green supporter or an Independent voter to the Conservatives than a Labour one.
But even for young people who end up on the right of the political spectrum, we know this is a huge issue for the Conservatives. Reform UK voters up until this point have uniquely hurt Conservative candidates. And we’ve seen from polling that once many voters turn to Reform, they have no interest in ‘coming home’ (if it ever was home) to the Conservative Party.
Those are just the electoral calculations. Whether or not it is to the Conservative Party’s benefit to have a large (and growing) group of the electorate supporting parties that are often much more critical of the UK’s foreign policy, defence spending and democratic institutions, I’ll leave to them.
Conservatives may be able to ride this wave of anti-mainstream youth revolt. But when the tide does go out, they might not like what’s been left behind.
Chris Hopkins is the Political Research Director at Savanta.
There is a tendency in the United Kingdom to overanalyse US politics.
Partially because of cultural ties, our shared language and – let’s be honest – our political class’s obsession with The West Wing, we tend to overstate similarities between our two countries. It’s worth remembering that we have different political traditions and systems, in particular when reflecting on the US Presidential election, and what it might mean for us.
But where there is data to suggest the beginnings of a new phenomenon in the UK, it can be useful to compare and contrast with our cousins over the Atlantic.
A long-term trend here and the wider developed world has been a sense of alienation that young people have felt from ‘mainstream’ politics. Despite this, Labour, Democrats and other left-leaning parties have been able to count on their support for the past 20-30 years. Often this has been in fewer numbers than required to make a tangible impact, but they’ve been a core part of the liberal coalition for a long time now.
This made sense intuitively. Conservative parties were typically focused on preserving the current state of affairs and stability. For many young people, they saw no benefit to this, and accordingly voted for ‘change’ parties, who tended to be more left leaning.
That’s beginning to change now.
In the US, Trump’s Republicans are seen as the party of radical change. That was partially a consequence of the Democrat’s running a sitting Vice-President as their candidate, but also speaks to a broader truth that Trump is simply unlike any other major political candidate in recent US history.
Over here, Starmer’s Labour has slowly become the party of defending institutions and democratic norms. Being seen to be defending the status quo is dangerous when much of the public is crying out for something different.
We already know that young people in the US were much more evenly divided between the major parties than in recent elections. This is because of the significant ‘gender gap’, where 55 per cent of young men voted for Trump, compared to 58 per cent of young women who backed Harris.
And we’re starting to see that play out in a different way in the UK. Young people are still more likely to have backed Labour, with pollsters estimating that 18–24-year-olds were between five and eight times more likely to have voted for Starmer’s party than the Conservatives. But for the first time in a long time, that doesn’t tell the whole story: with only 41 per cent of 18-24 year old’s backing Labour in this election, compared to 56 per cent in 2019.
But those on the Conservative side, cheering from the sideline, should beware. They were likely the fifth or sixth most popular party among young people at this election. And it doesn’t seem – yet – like they’re returning to the Tories in their swathes.
Because young people are potentially beginning to splinter, and on gender lines. Young women are twice as likely (24 per cent) to vote Greens than young men (12 per cent). While young men are twice as likely (12 per cent) to vote Reform UK than young women (6 per cent).
This isn’t just a short-term problem either.
Savanta’s research this year suggested that just three in ten (28 per cent) young people who have voted Conservative in the past but didn’t in July, can see them themselves backing the Conservative Party at the next election. One in five (21 per cent) of that group of young ‘Defectors’ say they can’t see themselves ever voting Conservative again.
Incumbent parties seem to be getting kicked out all over the world. Labour has had a rocky start in government to say the least. And young people appear to be unwilling to consider the Conservatives anytime soon.
So where will they go? Away from the mainstream of British politics.
And that should concern the Conservative Party just as much as Labour strategists.
There’s a couple of reasons for that. Firstly, the further young people move away from the centre, the further they will likely move away from the Conservative Party. I don’t think it’s going to be easier to switch a Green supporter or an Independent voter to the Conservatives than a Labour one.
But even for young people who end up on the right of the political spectrum, we know this is a huge issue for the Conservatives. Reform UK voters up until this point have uniquely hurt Conservative candidates. And we’ve seen from polling that once many voters turn to Reform, they have no interest in ‘coming home’ (if it ever was home) to the Conservative Party.
Those are just the electoral calculations. Whether or not it is to the Conservative Party’s benefit to have a large (and growing) group of the electorate supporting parties that are often much more critical of the UK’s foreign policy, defence spending and democratic institutions, I’ll leave to them.
Conservatives may be able to ride this wave of anti-mainstream youth revolt. But when the tide does go out, they might not like what’s been left behind.