This coming Friday, MPs are set to vote on the second reading of the Terminally Ill Adults (End of Life) Bill. It is unclear at this time whether the proposed legislation will pass or fail at this hurdle. Even if were to get the nod this week, it would create another flashpoint – one it may be even less likely to break through – after committee stage (and all the amendments and interventions which will likely follow).
The legislation as worded, if passed, would allow for those facing terminal illness to choose to end their own lives under certain specific criteria (relating to their condition and that of their life expectancy) and after having completed a due process involving the sign off from two doctors and a hearing from a high court judge.
Either way it goes, the result of the vote on Friday is expected to be very close. Assisted dying is no doubt a tricky issue, with strong feelings and strong arguments on both sides. As such, and for other reasons, MPs are allowed a ‘free vote’ on the issue – not bound by party whips.
Nonetheless, Labour leader Keir Starmer has previously signalled his support for changes to the law in line with the proposals (though has not publicly given a position on this particular vote itself) in statements given as recently as just under a year ago.
Furthermore, as well as implied (if not expressed) leadership approval, changes to the law to allow for assisted dying enjoy strong support from the public. So strong in fact, that it crosses all manner of socio-political divides and stretches back to comparative political ancient history.
Since 2019, YouGov tracking data has shown consistent, 2/3 support for assisted dying in case of terminal illness. At the last measurement on 7th October this year, 67 per cent of the public indicated that they thought the law “should be changed to allow someone to assist in the suicide of someone suffering from a terminal illness”. That number, as with the 13 per cent who were opposed, has barely moved in what is now five years, according to our data.
But far more impressively, public support for changes in the law to allow for assisted dying in certain circumstances can be traced back almost 75 years. As highlighted by Ed Hodgson of More in Common, Gallup recorded support for voluntary death’ in the case of incurable illness was supported by the public by 55 per cent to 24 per cent in 1950.
Racing back to present times, we at YouGov tested a wide range of wordings and conditions and circumstances under which the public may support or oppose assisted dying. The current policy as it is proposed in the Bill enjoys support of 73 per cent of Brits, with 13 per cent opposed.
And this support cuts across whichever line you care to try and place upon it. By party, support for the legislation as worded ranges from 80 per cent of 2024 Liberal Democrat voters (with 10 per cent of them opposed) to 68 per cent of Reform UK voters (19 per cent opposed). Men (74 per cent) and women (73 per cent) are equally likely to support the changes (with 13 per cent and 14 per cent opposed, respectively). Older people (aged 65+: 72 per cent support, 16 per cent oppose) are more likely than younger people (aged 18-24: 72 per cent support, 16 per cent oppose) to support changing the law, but even then, younger people are very clearly in favour. The list goes on.
Which is not at all to say that the British public support changes to allow for assisted dying in any given circumstance. There are a number of hypothetical instances where the public are clearly against assisted dying being allowed, and MPs talking or thinking about ‘slippery slope’ styled arguments may well have this in mind.
When we asked if this should be allowed “for any reason a patient wants”, support dropped all the way down to 10 per cent while opposition rose to 71 per cent.
Equally, the public were not in favour of the suggestion that children should be allowed access to assisted dying (19 per cent support, 51 per cent opposed) nor when the patient wanted it for mental health reasons (16 per cent support, 58 per cent opposed). There are clear limits to public backing for patients choosing to end their lives.
Even so, by a margin of 55 per cent to 20 per cent, the public are in favour of someone choosing assisted dying when their condition was incurable and painful/debilitating, but not terminal.
All of which, those specific and perhaps extreme conditions aside, puts the current declared positions, and the expected outcome of the vote on Friday, quite far apart from public opinion. While Brits are very clearly in favour of these changes, MPs are heavily split.
We do not often see misalignment of this scale – and across all social and political groups, and over such a long period of time – between elected British political elites and the public they serve. Which begs an interesting question – why?