The Conservatives must come to their Conference armed with a clear plan to make headlines and make interventions which will find their way to the news feeds and television screens of ordinary voters.
When the public are talking about immigrants, either in the context of deportations or limiting new arrivals, they are by and large thinking and talking about specific types of immigrants and immigration.
Two thirds of Welsh Conservative voters support scrapping the devolved parliament; overall, abolitionists significantly number those voters who want Wales to be independent.
If the Conservatives continue to essentially ignore the median voter, they may well find that they when come down from their mountaintop there’s barely an ear ready and willing to listen to them.
Thanks to Trump, they are trying to fight the election they would like to have – and the one they thought they were having as recently as January – versus the one they actually face.
The net zero pledge, passed by Theresa May’s government in 2019, is one of the few genuinely universally popular policy pledges out there. Support for the UK reaching net zero carbon emissions by 2050 reached as high as 70 to 75 per cent last year.
As with many elections across Europe, Germany will provide another electoral battlefield upon which the far-right will enjoy success.
If Labour do successfully construct a narrative around the Budget as one designed to balance public finances, deliver on infrastructure, and improve public services, the Conservatives will have to be careful in how they frame their criticism.
Buried within the Tory membership survey is also forewarning of a potentially fatal trap for the Conservatives in their quest to win the next election.
Will we see candidates adopt the frames and language with which the British public understands these events in the coming days?
The precise extent of the Labour victory, and just how much support Reform UK enjoy nationwide, is the only thing that pollsters disagree on.
With so many unknowns and so much about the magnitude of the changes coming that could mislead or misdirect pollsters, it is wise to treat the full range of MRP projections as plausible and realiastic outcomes.
Reform UK is reuniting a coalition that in its first phase hurt Labour at least to some significant degree, but who swung behind the Conservatives in 2019 and is deserting them now.
Rishi Sunak’s D-Day disaster dominated commentary almost immediately, but it wasn’t until after the weekend that it filtered out to the voters.