The stage is set. Tomorrow, voters will head to the polls. The campaigns are done, and the forecasters and projectors have had their final say.
Regarding public opinion and polling, the 2024 UK General Election has proven remarkably stable. Labour started the campaign at the end of last month with a comfortable lead over the Conservatives. As the day of the vote looms large, that has not changed.
The only real moments of significant cut-through of public attention paid to events surrounding the election have been two major negative news stories for the Conservative campaign.
First, Rishi Sunak’s decision to leave the D-Day Commemorations in France early, gifting Keir Starmer endless and uninterrupted photo opportunities with foreign leaders and dignitaries, enraged many Brits – particularly those with active or past military service backgrounds – and became the number one ‘most noticed news story’ in YouGov’s AI-powered cut through tracker. At its peak, a quarter of the public said this was the one thing they had heard most about over the proceeding days
Then was the turn of the election betting scandal. This, according to YouGov, was the most noticed story for no less than a week. Bigger than the Euros, bigger than the disappearance of Jay Slater in Tenerife, and far bigger than any other election-related news. The scandal cut through and landed poorly with something very sticky in the British public consciousness – the concept of fairness. Between the 25th and 26th of June, the betting scandal was the most noticed news story for 37 per cent of Brits.
Besides these two tales, the election has largely passed many voters by.
It is perhaps no surprise then that the only significant movements have been a quick but small rise in support for Reform UK after Nigel Farage decided to re-enter the British political fray to lead the party and contest the seaside constituency of Clacton for them and a steady but very real decline in support for both Labour and the Conservatives over the six week campaign period.
While the Tories have mostly bled support to the aforementioned Reform party, Labour has seen a significant fragmentation of their vote to smaller parties such as the Greens and pro-Palestinian independent candidates.
This fragmentation of the Labour vote could have been seriously costly for Keir Starmer’s party, were it not for the fact that the Conservatives were also experiencing similar levels of bleed.
Now, with voting just around the corner, the final polling averages look as follows:
| Party | Average vote share |
| Conservatives | 21% |
| Labour | 40% |
| Reform | 16% |
| Lib Dems | 11% |
| Green | 6% |
| SNP | 3% |
| Others | 3% |
MRP House of Commons seat projections all agree that the above polling average is likely to deliver Keir Starmer a significant and perhaps record-breaking parliamentary majority. Projections range from anything including a Labour majority of 162 to 318.
The precise extent of the Labour victory, and just how much support Reform UK enjoy nationwide, is the only thing that pollsters disagree on.
But in essence, what we are expecting from tomorrow is that Labour will go from their worst electoral defeat since 1935, to potentially the highest-ever number of House of Commons seats won by a British political party ever, in one election cycle.
We await to see whether this will be a good or a bad night for the pollsters and election modelers.
As we move through the night after polling stations close tomorrow, different patterns and different stories will emerge as the results come in.
First up at 10 pm sharp will be the joint BBC/Sky/ITV exit poll, released by the broadcasters the second polls close with the analysis conducted by a crack team of British psephologists led by Professor Sir John Curtice.
First results are not expected to be anywhere near as fast as we have gotten used to in recent elections – both the Sunderland and Newcastle seats who used to battle it out in that regard have seen significant boundary changes which will slow them down. Generally speaking, counts may be significantly slower across the board given the logistical challenges of operating on redrawn maps for the first time.
We should have results by around midnight, and the key thing will be to note the Conservative-Labour swing in those early declarations. The first constituency of keen interest will be Basildon and Billericay, which is expected to declare fairly early. If Labour takes this, we are on for a Conservative wipeout scenario. If they don’t, then the size of the swing will point us toward which sort of scenario we might be looking at short of wipeout.
Swindon South also should come in early. Labour must take that if they are going to have a very good night. Our first anticipated Scottish result should be Rutherglen, where Labour will be looking to retain their by-election gain.
The election’s real ‘Portillo moment’ could come at around half three, when the constituency of Godalming and Ash is expected to declare. Jeremy Hunt could well lose his seat to a Lib Dem challenge.
Then, at 4am, all eyes will turn to the prime minister’s seat of Richmond and Northallerton.