Dr David A Grigorian is a Senior Fellow at the Mossavar-Rahmani Center for Business and Government at Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government and a non-Resident Fellow at the Center for Global Development in Washington, DC.
If there is one person whose fortunes are diminishing most rapidly in the context of the latest avalanche of events across the Middle East and the Caucasus, it would be Russia’s President Valdimir Putin.
While the events in Syria will likely result in catapulting of Russia’s “limited contingent” out of the country following its embarrassing performance against the Islamist opposition, Putin has much more to lose from losing ground in his own backyard. Enter Ukraine, Georgia, and Armenia.
The current developments in these critical countries highlight the bankruptcy of Putin’s aspirations to reassemble the Soviet Union, or the Russian empire. The optics of this are bad enough, but if one puts this in a dynamic context and projects it forward ever so slightly, you get a sense of why the Kremlin apparatchiks should really be worried about this now.
Ukraine has irreversibly left the Russian orbit effectively on the day Russia attacked it, on February 24, 2022, if not earlier. Those who have long advocated for the provision of more advanced weaponry to Ukraine against Russia have recently received a welcome breather.
While much in this department will depend on the incoming US Administration’s posturing, signals given by recent appointees, including President-elect Trump’s nominee for his Ukraine envoy, General Keith Kellogg, are very promising.
Russia is unlikely to be able to credibly counter Kellogg’s “peace through strength” doctrine, as it finds itself facing a rapidly deteriorating economy and a dwindling ally, Iran. Implications of a strong and credible push by the West for Russia could be devastating.
Another country in Putin’s “near abroad” that has all but turned its back on him is Georgia. Thanks to the brave men and women of that small Caucasus country, who are protesting on the streets of every major city over recent days, Georgia’s departure from the Russian orbit appears to be a matter of time.
Despite the lacklustre support the Georgian opposition received from Washington and Brussels in recent years, the charge against the pro-Russian government in Tbilisi appears now to be gaining much ground, with estimated 200,000 protesters gathered in all major cities.
Led by Georgia’s pro-Wester President Salome Zourabichvili, a coalition of opposition parties is demanding new parliamentary elections that would accurately reflect the will of the people to put pro-Western politicians in charge and eventually join the EU. The country’s election held in October was widely seen as fraudulent by Western election observers.
This leaves Armenia, with its highly unpopular government of Prime Minister Pashinyan still in the Russian orbit, where low-intensity action has been taking place for several months now. Like in Georgia, Armenia’s western partners have been fooled by the incumbent’s empty promises and his masterfully played “smoke and mirrors” game.
Leading the charge against him in Armenia is the National Democratic Alliance, Armenia’s largest pro-Western political movement. Apart from a wide range of economic and social reforms on its agenda and despite the threats from Turkey and Russia, NDA aims to return Armenia to the family of Western nations by securing a status of a Major Non-NATO Ally of the United States, a bilateral equivalent of joining a western defense alliance.
To that end, NDA has been working with two major lobbying groups in Washington and has established close relations with prominent Republican lawmakers. This contrasts severely with Pashinyan’s continued overtures to Putin, who is believed to have greenlighted his assent to power with a smooth handover from his predecessor in 2018.
Pashinyan’s actions and inaction have led to a loss of Nagorno-Karabakh in 2020 and the forced exodus of 120,000 Armenians from the region in 2023, events that benefited Russia’s main proxy in the region, autocratic oil-rich Azerbaijan.
NDA seeks a peaceful resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict with Azerbaijan on the terms consistent with international law, including the 1920 decision of the League of Nations and the Arbitral Award of the then U.S. President Woodrow Wilson. The UK’s diplomatic and military support of the Republic of Armenia (1918-20), a World War I ally, is noteworthy and provides strong moral ground for a more active involvement of the Foreign Office in the process.
There is much that the West can do to help the quest of the people of Georgia and Armenia to join the family of free nations. This happens to be in the interest of the western nations themselves. The strategic corridor encompassing Armenia and Georgia is a critical juncture between Europe and Asia, and its stability or instability has ramifications beyond local borders.
Continued Russian control of this corridor would embolden authoritarian regimes in the region, as seen historically when ambitious powers are met with insufficient resistance, or worse, appeasement.
Putin’s fortunes are diminishing but he still has plenty of dry gunpowder to cause severe destruction and human suffering.
Only through clear-eyed and resolute support can the international community safeguard these nations from malign ambitions reminiscent of pre-World War II Europe.
Dr David A Grigorian is a Senior Fellow at the Mossavar-Rahmani Center for Business and Government at Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government and a non-Resident Fellow at the Center for Global Development in Washington, DC.
If there is one person whose fortunes are diminishing most rapidly in the context of the latest avalanche of events across the Middle East and the Caucasus, it would be Russia’s President Valdimir Putin.
While the events in Syria will likely result in catapulting of Russia’s “limited contingent” out of the country following its embarrassing performance against the Islamist opposition, Putin has much more to lose from losing ground in his own backyard. Enter Ukraine, Georgia, and Armenia.
The current developments in these critical countries highlight the bankruptcy of Putin’s aspirations to reassemble the Soviet Union, or the Russian empire. The optics of this are bad enough, but if one puts this in a dynamic context and projects it forward ever so slightly, you get a sense of why the Kremlin apparatchiks should really be worried about this now.
Ukraine has irreversibly left the Russian orbit effectively on the day Russia attacked it, on February 24, 2022, if not earlier. Those who have long advocated for the provision of more advanced weaponry to Ukraine against Russia have recently received a welcome breather.
While much in this department will depend on the incoming US Administration’s posturing, signals given by recent appointees, including President-elect Trump’s nominee for his Ukraine envoy, General Keith Kellogg, are very promising.
Russia is unlikely to be able to credibly counter Kellogg’s “peace through strength” doctrine, as it finds itself facing a rapidly deteriorating economy and a dwindling ally, Iran. Implications of a strong and credible push by the West for Russia could be devastating.
Another country in Putin’s “near abroad” that has all but turned its back on him is Georgia. Thanks to the brave men and women of that small Caucasus country, who are protesting on the streets of every major city over recent days, Georgia’s departure from the Russian orbit appears to be a matter of time.
Despite the lacklustre support the Georgian opposition received from Washington and Brussels in recent years, the charge against the pro-Russian government in Tbilisi appears now to be gaining much ground, with estimated 200,000 protesters gathered in all major cities.
Led by Georgia’s pro-Wester President Salome Zourabichvili, a coalition of opposition parties is demanding new parliamentary elections that would accurately reflect the will of the people to put pro-Western politicians in charge and eventually join the EU. The country’s election held in October was widely seen as fraudulent by Western election observers.
This leaves Armenia, with its highly unpopular government of Prime Minister Pashinyan still in the Russian orbit, where low-intensity action has been taking place for several months now. Like in Georgia, Armenia’s western partners have been fooled by the incumbent’s empty promises and his masterfully played “smoke and mirrors” game.
Leading the charge against him in Armenia is the National Democratic Alliance, Armenia’s largest pro-Western political movement. Apart from a wide range of economic and social reforms on its agenda and despite the threats from Turkey and Russia, NDA aims to return Armenia to the family of Western nations by securing a status of a Major Non-NATO Ally of the United States, a bilateral equivalent of joining a western defense alliance.
To that end, NDA has been working with two major lobbying groups in Washington and has established close relations with prominent Republican lawmakers. This contrasts severely with Pashinyan’s continued overtures to Putin, who is believed to have greenlighted his assent to power with a smooth handover from his predecessor in 2018.
Pashinyan’s actions and inaction have led to a loss of Nagorno-Karabakh in 2020 and the forced exodus of 120,000 Armenians from the region in 2023, events that benefited Russia’s main proxy in the region, autocratic oil-rich Azerbaijan.
NDA seeks a peaceful resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict with Azerbaijan on the terms consistent with international law, including the 1920 decision of the League of Nations and the Arbitral Award of the then U.S. President Woodrow Wilson. The UK’s diplomatic and military support of the Republic of Armenia (1918-20), a World War I ally, is noteworthy and provides strong moral ground for a more active involvement of the Foreign Office in the process.
There is much that the West can do to help the quest of the people of Georgia and Armenia to join the family of free nations. This happens to be in the interest of the western nations themselves. The strategic corridor encompassing Armenia and Georgia is a critical juncture between Europe and Asia, and its stability or instability has ramifications beyond local borders.
Continued Russian control of this corridor would embolden authoritarian regimes in the region, as seen historically when ambitious powers are met with insufficient resistance, or worse, appeasement.
Putin’s fortunes are diminishing but he still has plenty of dry gunpowder to cause severe destruction and human suffering.
Only through clear-eyed and resolute support can the international community safeguard these nations from malign ambitions reminiscent of pre-World War II Europe.