That time of the year has arrived, and with it, familiar moods.
It’s the time where it takes a second to be sure exactly what day it is. When the idea of a nice glass of wine is less attractive than it was two days ago. Where the house is quieter, and lunch tastes just like it did on Christmas day but you want slightly less on the plate. Finally, whether happy or not your mind may have made a quick, frightened (and if you are wise) secret, calculation of what exactly the week has cost you!
It’s how gyms make money in January, and wine merchants don’t.
Each year millions will decide it’s time to live a more frugal existence, watch their diet, get more sleep, and focus on being fit and healthy. Sadly, for around 70-80% of those who do, it won’t last beyond February the first.
Sometimes our personal Christmas experience is a celebration with friends and family that crowns a good year. For others it’s a time to take a last break and push away the pressures of life before entering a new year with a small shiver of trepidation.
For the Conservative Party, Christmas probably was, and probably should be, the latter.
2025 is going to present real challenges to the party. Any poor habits, ill-discipline, careless spending, and self-indulgent introspection needs to be swept aside and a lasting plan to get “match fit” needs to be put into over-drive.
Internal party changes aren’t going to win a single vote, but they need to continue, and bed in, to ensure Conservatives can start to do just that – winning votes. Walking the pavements and knocking on doors will need to beat the treadmill of the gym. Those fired up to fight back need to inspire those who might be tempted to fall by the wayside because “it’s just got too hard”. Sometimes results need to be ground out, by sheer hard slog and determination, and frankly, are all the sweeter for it.
The reason for the warning is, Conservatives have competition. Serious competition, but not necessarily from inevitable winners.
No doubt about it – Nigel Farage’s Reform party will feel it has had a good Christmas.
His team are already getting match fit.
Yes, we’ve heard people boast about membership numbers before, as if it actually means something. Jeremy Corbyn loved talking about numbers, and crowds, that turned out to be useless markers for success. However projecting those Reform “membership” numbers onto CCHQ over Christmas shows more important things than the numbers themselves. Kemi Badenoch has already branded the Reform numbers “fake” and explained why – but I’d be looking at something else too.
One, Reform have people willing to make that stunt happen while most of us were trying to enjoy a national holiday, away from politics. Two, they have the political nous and digital Comms operation to make the stunts work for them. Three, they are hungry to ‘prove’ their claim that they are riding a wave of societal change, that the Conservatives don’t understand. Four, the Conservative party does need more members to join the fight.
Nigel won’t be upset if I say, he’s a bit of show off. He is. It’s what makes those that like him, like him more. It’s what draws people to at least give him a hearing, and ultimately, he doesn’t care about those who will never like him. They are crafting a fight on their terms.
Conservatives should look at it as the provocation it is. Do their thing, not his thing.
If you don’t believe their easy answers are real answers, if you think your own party has the will and the belief to get back into Government, then ignore the uni-party nonsense (it’s an absurd comparison), don’t swallow the idea the new Tory leader is somehow “a lefty”, agree with what you want to, but also call snake-oil what it is when you see it.
Get up, get active and get out there. If Conservatives don’t, Reform will happily use the political treadmill to trample you. They’ve said that’s what they want.
Labour took six months to reveal their serious weaknesses on immigration, and the economy, but equally there are obvious holes in what Reform are selling, that are not definitively answered by “yeah but you were just as bad in government.” The Conservatives do not need to be offering an alternative manifesto to offer strong opposition and call out hyperbolic promises from either Labour or Reform.
Christmas Day provided one example.
Richard Tice explained to the Express Reform’s solution to the Christmas Day small boat traffic that saw 461 migrants reach the UK illegally. Tice explained Reform would simply pick them up and take them back to France. Sounds good to those who want to stop small boats. He quoted the UN Convention of Law at Sea as suggesting that was completely allowed.
I’ve read it. I’d like to know where it says that, and how that would square with the real obstacle: the international maritime law on safety of life at sea. They need to explain how this policy wouldn’t collapse on first contact with reality. It’s not about political will.
With a new platform, based on real conservative values (a different offer than the voters rejected in July) the Conservatives could beat Labour and change the balance with Reform – then we can all talk about numbers.
The real point is, do they really want to? That is what voters aren’t sure about right now.
Are the Conservatives serious about taking this fight on? If they are, January is time to get really match fit for a fight that’s going to be real, but whose outcome is not nearly as certain as some will overconfidently tell you.
It’s up to you.