Have you joined Reform yet?
Don’t tell me you haven’t been tempted. Was it the sandwiched slip up, the membership spat, or the spelling mistake? Some of us still just about qualify for the £10 annual membership. I’ve met Nigel Farage a few times, and we’ve had more extensive chats than I’ve ever managed with Kemi Badenoch. I would only be following in the footsteps of our illustrious founder and 153,000 others.
I jest. Defecting would be very poor form. I couldn’t do it. I was mad enough to vote Conservatives even during the 2019 European election (you’re welcome, Dan). I am a Tory to my boots. I adhere to the ancient constitution of the state, and the apostolical hierarchy of the Church of England, which makes me more loyal than quite a few Conservative MPs. Sorry Nigel, but I’m taken.
Badenoch has passed a significant milestone: 50 days as Tory leader. Not only is that a nice round number, but it is the exact length of time that Liz Truss spent as our chief. Just as the astronomical unit of 1 AU is defined as the average distance between the Earth and the Sun, so can 1 LT be used to measure Conservative leader tenures. Badenoch is now at 60 days, or 1.2 LT.
How has she fared? Few would suggest well. Underwhelming PMQs performances, bizarre interviews, a pointless spat with Farage: for a woman who claims to be physically incapable of committing gaffes, she is giving it a jolly good go. Badenoch’s reticence on policy and imperious style has not only let Labour off the hook, but opened up a wide space for Farage.
The utter ignominy of opposition has meant we are nowhere near the rolling nightmare of the 49-Day Queen’s reign. When you aren’t in power, the stakes are so much lower. The markets do not hang on your every word. When HMS Badenoch occasionally surfaces, she doesn’t prompt a run on the pound, just scratches to the head from perplexed and weary onlookers.
Having inherited a slender poll lead, Badenoch’s leadership has so far seen the Conservatives alternate with Labour for the top spot. Two MRP polls over the weekend suggested hung parliaments and the Tories on over 200 MPs. If I can do that in eight weeks, Badenoch might suggest, imagine what I could do in four and a half years. Would that sort of a result buy her another parliament?
Any recovery in Tory numbers from July’s drubbing is welcome. But the story of the polls is not burgeoning enthusiasm our new management, but Labour’s unprecedented early unpopularity, and the remorseless rise of Reform, now regularly topping 20 per cent. Farage has pushed both us and Labour into third and is more popular than either Badenoch or Keir Starmer.
Voters hate us. They now hate Labour too. That makes Farage the flawed but obvious receptacle for that anger. Badenoch can complain about Reform’s pledges all she likes. She can allege Farage cannot be trusted. But why is he any less trustworthy than a Tory Party that pledged to control and reduce migration and then let in the Boriswave? He didn’t start the fire.
Farage’s membership ticker rattled Badenoch and won him exactly the response he was looking for. Twitter threads will not blunt Reform’s rise. Badenoch has inched a little closer to a proper cap on migration and leaving the ECHR. But her pledges are nowhere near enough to suggest she takes public anger on immigration seriously. Even Starmer knows it is one of her weak spots.
Labour seems to have responded with more urgency. I underestimated Morgan McSweeney – or, more accurately, I overestimated Sue Gray. Turns out she really was just an over-promoted HR bod. Whilst McSweeney only ticked off the first of his three steps towards changing Labour by the election, he has at least realised that Farage poses a historic threat, starting with the Cabinet.
As the ever-excellent Tom McTague has explained, McSweeney believes “only tangible improvements in people’s everyday lives will be enough to hold back the Faragist advance”. If immigration doesn’t come down, waiting lists aren’t lower, and voters don’t feel better off by 2029, Reform will be the beneficiaries. The big three issues that did for us and would do for Labour too.
Farage is better placed than Badenoch to benefit from public anger on state failure. Not because he has had a Damascene conversion to the NHS – far from it – but because of our record has been combined with her own lack of interest. Her appointments to the Lords sent the message loud and clear: she really does care about the culture wars above all else.
I have plenty of time for Nigel Biggar. I don’t yearn to pump troubled teens full of puberty blockers. But who gives a toss about the woke when they’ve been waiting five hours in A and E? Who wants to sit through a lecture on muscular liberalism when their incomes have stagnated for two long decades? Badenoch has not shown she shares the same priorities as voters.
She is right that, to avoid another wasted period in office, Stepping Stones 2 is necessary. Policies must be devised, talent scouted, and a strategic plan built for smashing through Whitehall. But to get to that point, we must remain viable. There is no point in a third-place party planning for office. Badenoch would look more like Jo Swinson’s second coming than Margaret Thatcher’s.
Politics is being played at ten times speed. Having thought both Truss and Keir Starmer would stumble, I was shocked by how quickly the wheels came off. Is Badenoch going the same way? I expected she would disappoint her fans by failing to be the system shock they hoped for. But I didn’t realise we’d already be seeing buyer’s remorse. The whispering campaign has begun.
As our Deputy Editor highlighted, Badenoch asked MPs and party members to buy into brand Kemi. If some are already regretting her victory, that is solely down to her. Enough viable alternatives are waiting in the wings to give her leadership a note of conditionality. Even with the raised threshold, her support amongst MPs is low enough to make a no-confidence vote feasible.
Her Shadow Cabinet appointments put loyalty over bridge-mending, leaving egos unnecessarily bruised. Any relaunch of her leadership would have to be accompanied by a reshuffle. Wasting Neil O’Brien on a junior ministerial position as punishment for crimes against the 2017 intake makes no sense. Bumping him up to Shadow Health would be a sign she takes the NHS seriously.
Without a substantive pitch on the issues that matter to the electorate, Badenoch will have nothing worthy to say. In the contest of McSweeney versus Farage, she will be squeezed into irrelevance. The former is in power and can at least try to make a meaningful impact on voters’ lives before the next election; the latter can damn the Tory record and outflank Badenoch at every turn.
The one thing worse than being talked about is not being talked about. At least Badenoch’s gaffes get her a little notice. Even more embarrassing would be irrelevance. Will the heir to Peel, Disraeli, Salisbury, and Thatcher be reduced to Ed Davey-style stunts for attention? I can’t see her reducing herself to that. But she might have no choice. Time for another word with GB News?
If, by May’s local elections, Farage is in the ascendant and we are battling Labour to stay out of third, not only can poor results be expected in those councils Angela Rayner lets us contest, but Badenoch’s leadership would be hobbled. She would argue more time is needed. She might get the benefit of the doubt. She may not. Planning for Renewal 2030 suddenly looks rather optimistic.
Many of us have no desire to see hands dipped in the blood again. I hope I have curated my last ‘Who’s backing whom’ live blog. But you always have less time in politics than you hope. If a correction is required, Tory MPs may decide it is better to get it down swiftly, than plough on with a mistake. An absolute monarchy moderated by regicide, and all that. It’s all so very tiresome.
We’ll see what 2025 brings. A Happy New Year to all our readers.