On Sunday, we reported that Robert Jenrick had narrowly pipped Kemi Badenoch to the post to be crowned – unprompted – our panel’s Tory MP of the Year.
Whilst an eye-catching finding to those who think the Shadow Justice Secretary is still on manoeuvres, there were slender grounds for over-interpreting it. Jenrick has been energetic in the media but that is his job, and the grooming gangs scandal has put j ustice in the spotlight.
Both he and Badenoch were also still streets ahead of the rest of the pack. A much more important indicator of any change in members’ sentiments around her leadership would be the Shadow Cabinet League Table.
Well, here it is. The leader has posted a score of +32, and is in seventh place. The podium positions go to Mel Stride, Jenrick, and Chris Philp, with Laura Trott, Andrew Griffith, and Claire Coutinho in the chasing pack. (It’s also a poor opening for Darren Millar, the new Welsh leader, whose positive score is just a third of his predecessor’s.)
This is a dramatic shift however you slice it. Badenoch has led every Shadow Cabinet League Table since the very first one after the election, and normally by a margin of about 20 points over her next-most popular colleague – and that’s not counting her extended run in the Cabinet League Table.
Upon winning the leadership her positive rating shifted up to north of 70, and remained there before Christmas. Her score today is a 39-point fall since the New Year.
Meanwhile despite a strong showing from Jenrick, it’s actually the Shadow Chancellor who has emerged as something of a sleeper hit amongst the Tory grassroots – aided, no doubt, by the ample opportunities Rachel Reeves is creating to attack the Government’s economic record.
Why the sudden change in sentiment? Media opinion on Badenoch has been a bit all over the place, with sceptical coverage rebounding for a bit after a strong speech or PMQs showing. But one obvious possibility suggests itself from the survey: members’ optimism about the next election continues to slide:
Only 11 per cent of respondents now anticipate a Conservative majority, down from 24 per cent last month. Expectations of a Tory minority government have fallen too. Those for a Conservative-led coalition have risen by ten points – perhaps anticipating a deal with Reform – but not enough to offset a significant overall waning of optimism.
None of this is set in stone. Unlike government, where ministers are locked into briefs and subject to the relentless flow of events, opposition can be a fickle business. One strong month could be all it takes to put Badenoch back on top. But there is no denying that, on current evidence, the mood of the membership is souring.