Last month, readers may remember the post-Christmas spat between Kemi Badenoch and Nigel Farage over membership figures. As depressingly long ago as this already seems, we did think to ask members whether they believed his central claim was correct: Reform UK now has more members than the Conservative Party. How did they respond?
As you can see above, it does not make great reading for our new(ish) leader. 43.9 per cent of our panel members believe it is very likely that Reform have overtaken us, 23.9 per cent think it is likely, and 15.9 per cent that it is somewhat likely. That means that 83.7 per cent – 84 per cent, for the papers – think that it is more likely than not that Farage’s boasts were true.
Badenoch can take heart from the 8.1 per cent who think that it is somewhat unlikely, unlikely, or very unlikely that Reform have done so. Perhaps they are immune to Farage’s siren song, and can be expected to remain loyal supplicants of CCHQ for the foreseeable future. But the Clacton MP has long been a subject of interest for our panel. They listen to him. More than her?
In truth, it is hard to deny that all the momentum is with Reform. Just look at the graph of polling averages since the election: Labour down, us stable, Reform sharply up. Whether or not one has much faith in our former columnist’s talents as a pollster, it is undeniable that Farage’s party is very rapidly on the rise. We are duelling with Labour to stay out of third.
We also asked our panel whether they thought that CCHQ should regularly publish membership figures. 58.7 per cent said it should; 35.8 that it should not, and the remainder were unsure. A previous chairman claimed the party doesn’t publish figures since it creates “media stories about short-term rises and falls in membership”. Our leader can do that well enough on her own.