John O’Connell is the Chief Executive of the Taxpayers Alliance.
We’re not going to get any policies this year from Kemi Badenoch. That much is clear.
That much is clear. Instead the focus will be on rebuilding trust with the voters and defining clearly the principles that will underpin a policy programme.
If there is one that should unite every Conservative it is that working hard and saving to provide for your family is to be encouraged, not punished. We have a fundamental human instinct to leave the next generation in a better position than our own, although politicians from all sides of the aisle have done their level best to fight against it over recent decades.
The beauty of this principle is that it’s one the public share resoundingly – not just Conservatives. Witness the visceral reaction to the changes made to Agricultural Property Relief and Business Property Relief at the Budget – it was not just about the numbers, but anger over an assault on our values.
So while Kemi and her team begin the task of developing policy, we can at least start pitching ideas now, particularly in areas where the value case is so clear. Polling done for us at the TaxPayers’ Alliance by Public First has revealed in completely unambiguous terms that at least when it comes to inheritance tax, the public are already sold. It’s unfair and should be abolished or, at the very least, cut.
The figures for Conservative and Reform voters are probably not surprising. For both 2024 Conservative and Reform voters inheritance tax is deemed the most unfair out of a list of nine by a whopping 61 per cent. A combined 68 per cent of the former and 71 per cent of the latter would cut or abolish it. In both cases abolition comes out ahead of a cut. Just 27 and 23 per cent respectively would want it kept the same level or increased.
To have any hope of returning to Number 10 Downing Street, though, Kemi Badenoch’s appeal will have to go well beyond just their 2024 voters. They’ll need to appeal to those who returned to Labour in midlands and north, who switched to the Lib Dems in the south west, who defected to Reform in Essex and even put their cross in a Green box in Suffolk and Herefordshire. They’ll need to regain support in both genders, all age groups, education levels, social grades and regions. Such is the challenge they face to win the minimum 200 additional seats they’ll need to return to office. Every single one of these groups, bar none, support cutting or abolishing inheritance tax by a plurality at a minimum. For most groups its majority support.
Let’s look at age groups. For 18-24 year olds 53 per cent support cut or abolition, just 29 per cent say keep or raise. For 35-44 year olds it’s 58 per cent and 25 per cent. For 65s and over it’s 58 per cent and 34 per cent. Remarkably, more people from the DE social grade list (those on lower incomes) inheritance tax as the most unfair (47 per cent) than do higher-income ABs (44 per cent). When looking at regions, 60 per cent of people in the North West, East of England and the South East support cutting or abolishing inheritance tax over increasing it or keeping. In everywhere but the North East and West Midlands is it a majority.
But while it’s undoubtedly Reform and Conservative voters and supporters that are the most robust, supporters of all political parties would favour a cut or abolition. That’s Labour voters (48 per cent to 39 per cent keep or raise), Lib Dems (48 to 37 per cent) and even Green Party voters (43 per cent to 37 per cent).
It won’t come as a surprise that when polled on inheritance tax for family businesses or agricultural properties, the British public are even more emphatic. In opposition, the Conservatives will have to pick their battles, and the removal of APR and BPR are two giant, growing bruises that deserve and need to be punched. A U-turn, or at least watering down, of these changes would be a success in and of itself. As would keeping inheritance tax rates frozen given the undoubted desire amongst many in the Labour movement to go against their own voters and hike it.
But this cannot be the extent of the ambition. Ultimately, the moral case for abolishing inheritance tax underpins emphatic data, which we hope might inform an upcoming policy commission that the only place the Conservatives should be landing is to join our call for inheritance tax to be scrapped completely.
John O’Connell is the Chief Executive of the Taxpayers Alliance.
We’re not going to get any policies this year from Kemi Badenoch. That much is clear.
That much is clear. Instead the focus will be on rebuilding trust with the voters and defining clearly the principles that will underpin a policy programme.
If there is one that should unite every Conservative it is that working hard and saving to provide for your family is to be encouraged, not punished. We have a fundamental human instinct to leave the next generation in a better position than our own, although politicians from all sides of the aisle have done their level best to fight against it over recent decades.
The beauty of this principle is that it’s one the public share resoundingly – not just Conservatives. Witness the visceral reaction to the changes made to Agricultural Property Relief and Business Property Relief at the Budget – it was not just about the numbers, but anger over an assault on our values.
So while Kemi and her team begin the task of developing policy, we can at least start pitching ideas now, particularly in areas where the value case is so clear. Polling done for us at the TaxPayers’ Alliance by Public First has revealed in completely unambiguous terms that at least when it comes to inheritance tax, the public are already sold. It’s unfair and should be abolished or, at the very least, cut.
The figures for Conservative and Reform voters are probably not surprising. For both 2024 Conservative and Reform voters inheritance tax is deemed the most unfair out of a list of nine by a whopping 61 per cent. A combined 68 per cent of the former and 71 per cent of the latter would cut or abolish it. In both cases abolition comes out ahead of a cut. Just 27 and 23 per cent respectively would want it kept the same level or increased.
To have any hope of returning to Number 10 Downing Street, though, Kemi Badenoch’s appeal will have to go well beyond just their 2024 voters. They’ll need to appeal to those who returned to Labour in midlands and north, who switched to the Lib Dems in the south west, who defected to Reform in Essex and even put their cross in a Green box in Suffolk and Herefordshire. They’ll need to regain support in both genders, all age groups, education levels, social grades and regions. Such is the challenge they face to win the minimum 200 additional seats they’ll need to return to office. Every single one of these groups, bar none, support cutting or abolishing inheritance tax by a plurality at a minimum. For most groups its majority support.
Let’s look at age groups. For 18-24 year olds 53 per cent support cut or abolition, just 29 per cent say keep or raise. For 35-44 year olds it’s 58 per cent and 25 per cent. For 65s and over it’s 58 per cent and 34 per cent. Remarkably, more people from the DE social grade list (those on lower incomes) inheritance tax as the most unfair (47 per cent) than do higher-income ABs (44 per cent). When looking at regions, 60 per cent of people in the North West, East of England and the South East support cutting or abolishing inheritance tax over increasing it or keeping. In everywhere but the North East and West Midlands is it a majority.
But while it’s undoubtedly Reform and Conservative voters and supporters that are the most robust, supporters of all political parties would favour a cut or abolition. That’s Labour voters (48 per cent to 39 per cent keep or raise), Lib Dems (48 to 37 per cent) and even Green Party voters (43 per cent to 37 per cent).
It won’t come as a surprise that when polled on inheritance tax for family businesses or agricultural properties, the British public are even more emphatic. In opposition, the Conservatives will have to pick their battles, and the removal of APR and BPR are two giant, growing bruises that deserve and need to be punched. A U-turn, or at least watering down, of these changes would be a success in and of itself. As would keeping inheritance tax rates frozen given the undoubted desire amongst many in the Labour movement to go against their own voters and hike it.
But this cannot be the extent of the ambition. Ultimately, the moral case for abolishing inheritance tax underpins emphatic data, which we hope might inform an upcoming policy commission that the only place the Conservatives should be landing is to join our call for inheritance tax to be scrapped completely.