John Oxley is a consultant, writer, and broadcaster. His SubStack is Joxley Writes.
As conference beckons, it is our best yearly reminder of what the Conservative Party really is, or at least should be. It is more than Westminster and the parliamentary party, but a shared, mass-membership organisation. Gathering together reminds us that ours is an organisation that stretches across the country, bringing together thousands of people who care deeply about their ward, county, and the nation, and channelling that into their efforts and enthusiasm for politics.
Coming together like this is also a reminder of the importance of our local organisations to the broader functioning of the Conservative Party.
While it is MPs and Shadow Ministers who are in the headlines, the real work of the party is done by thousands of volunteers. It is ordinary members who get leaflets delivered, canvass returns filled, and campaigns run. They are the essential fighting force of keeping us in contention for elections, whether local or national.
This is also why conference should be a time for taking stock of the difficult health the party is now in. We know that membership of political parties is in decline, but for the Conservatives it has become particularly parlous.
At the time of the leadership election last year, the party had around 130,000 members – already a historic low, and less than half the membership it had boasted when it last went into opposition. Indeed, in the 2001 leadership contest, both candidates received more votes than were cast in the 2024 contest.
Since then, there is little evidence that things have improved. Though CCHQ keeps membership numbers close to its chest, I suspect the rumbles around the conference hall from those enmeshed in our associations will be the same: numbers are in freefall. Speaking to people around the country, I have heard similar things. Reports of a third or so of our members dropping away, even in some of the most active and committed constituencies.
Some of these are defections, people picking up and going to Reform. Many are not. Lots are just drifting away from the party, uninspired by its current fortunes or trajectory. Others are people becoming too old or unsteady to be really involved, but who are not being replaced by new recruits.
These are anecdotes, of course, but the theme is consistent, and it points towards the party falling below 100,000 members in the near future.
Such a decline would be disastrous for our chances of recovery. As a party, we were already exposed by the last election. In 2024, we lacked the necessary numbers to overcome the challenges we faced. Even in seats with big majorities, we had neglected the peacetime preparations of building up the local party, the campaigning infrastructure, and the data when our electoral fortunes shifted. At the next election, that challenge will be harder as we fight to overturn defeats from last time and compete with a new, energetic party on our right.
It is also a problem that cannot be left to fester. Over the next few years, polling is likely to fluctuate and change. Policy takes time to develop and can rapidly become outdated. It makes sense to wait longer on that score.
Organisational strength, however, is a compounding factor. The more members you have, the easier it should be to grow. The more work you do on the ground early on, the more it pays off later. If we wait until 2028 to build a credible election machine, it will be too late.
To get things in place, the party needs to seize on the urgency of solving this problem. For decades, we have accepted decline, and now we are seeing the low ebb of it.
Yes, we are struggling in the polls, but there remain millions of people who are willing to vote Conservative; we should be able to pull some of them into membership. Indeed, the current peril should be a recruiting sergeant: anyone sticking with us now should understand the peril of the moment and the need to fight to keep the party going.
To make this happen, CCHQ needs to find better ways of both incentivising and supporting associations in building up their membership books. The national organisation has the capacity to draw on best practices from around the world, and beyond politics, and to guide local campaigners on what works to get new bodies through the door.
It can also do much better at rewarding the parts of the association that grow. As a radical idea, perhaps the most successful could be given greater autonomy from the centre. After all, it makes more sense to have a freer hand in candidate selections when you have 300 people at a meeting than 30.
In the past, the centre has failed to get this package right. At times, it has imposed layered expectations on associations without providing support or skewed incentives towards already successful areas. Given the peril the membership levels are in, it needs to do more and do it right. Associations need help to understand how to best connect to Conservative voters and bring them on board, as well as a sense that doing so is properly appreciated. Without it, even well-intentioned and energetic associations will be struggling against the tide.
A year ago at the conference, the leadership contest gave us energy and the sense that the party was thinking about its future. Now it needs to feel like it is fighting for it. Some aspects of that will take time, but others should be galvanised quickly. Membership is one of those. That it appears to be failing so quickly points towards a party in peril: one that weakens the longer it is neglected, and one that will quickly be exposed in an intensive election campaign.
If the last year was one for taking stock and making changes behind the scenes, this coming one should be one for action. Membership needs to be at the heart of that. If we cannot convince our voters to become a bit more active, we will struggle to convince the public to back us at all.
Haemorrhaging membership like this is a sign of a failing party. If it is as bad as many in the associations report, then our organisational strength is really in peril. Getting this fixed could be a real mark of success for the year to come. If, however, by next conference we have shed tens of thousands more, it will indicate a party unable to arrest its decline.